NORTH CAROLINA: New Elon Poll Shows Dead Heat

Via Elon University:

Confirming North Carolina’s status as a battleground state, the latest survey of likely voters in the state by the Elon University Poll found Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Hillary Clinton are virtually tied for the lead with less than two months to go until Election Day. Trump has a 44-43 percent advantage among likely voters in the state, a lead that falls within the poll’s margin of error, with 6 percent of voters backing Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson.

Most voters feel Trump would be better for rich people, white people and men, while most believe Clinton would be better for poor people, women and minorities. Neither candidate fared well when asked how they stacked up against previous presidential candidates from their parties, with a majority saying both are worse than usual.

Among black voters in North Carolina, 98 percent say they plan to vote for Clinton while just 2 percent plan to pick Trump, when the two are compared head-to-head. Nearly two-thirds of white voters — 65 percent — plan to vote for Trump, while 35 percent say they will pick Clinton.

“Republican strategists have long known that they need to tighten the racial gaps between the parties,” Husser said. “However, we don’t see that happening with African-American voters in North Carolina. Just 2 percent of likely black voters we talked to plan to vote for Donald Trump.” Trump is attracting more male voters, with 55 percent of men picking Trump, and Clinton maintains an edge with women voters, who prefer her to Trump by a 53-47 margin.

elon1elon2elon3

  • another_steve

    “Nearly two-thirds of white voters — 65 percent — plan to vote for Trump, while 35 percent say they will pick Clinton.”

    Confirming what we already know — that in North Carolina, the Civil War rages on.

    • bkmn

      And in NC the war against people of color voting rages on.

    • SelectFromWhere

      Stop with the “Civil War” stuff–those racial breakdown numbers are not that different from many other states. It’s not JUST about race, and racism is not the same as “The Civil War” (if it were, then there would be no racism in Northern states–HA, just ask a black person up North about that!).
      There are racist people in NC (and many other places), but “The Civil War” is not still on. And just because a white person votes GOP does not mean they are doing it because of racism. We have a lot of “Country Club Republicans” in the suburbs of the cities who are moderate or even left-leaning on racial and social issues, but vote GOP because of they think it will lower their taxes. Again, not limited to NC.

      • another_steve

        I’ll leave it to the historians and political scientists to evaluate the roots of the irrational Hillary hatred out there. (Not the same as her “unfavorable” numbers among Democrats. There’s plenty of that, but that not what I’m talking about.)

        I suspect much of the hatred is in fact lingering disgust that there’s been a black man in a prominent – THE most prominent — position in the U.S., and much of it is misogyny. Hillary, a woman, is identified with President Obama — the black usurper in the White House.

        Both racism and misogyny are traditional, historical Southern white male values.

        As in 1863, so too in 2016.

      • NedFlaherty

        Republican individuals often see themselves as not racist; however, the party that they endorse, fund, and vote for is explicitly racist in its gerrymandering, voter-suppression, economic strangulation of schools, etc.

        A white person who doesn’t “think” that they’re racist, yet votes Republican, is still — effectively — a racist because the 2016 Party Platform is racist, and the Republican Congressional lawmakers are racist.

    • Kay

      It’s not surprising.

      White people have leaned Republican for a long time. The Democratic party has policies designed specifically to appeal to black voters, and the republican party tries to court white voters.

  • bkmn

    We need to do a better job of tying Trump to McCrory.

    • Jim B

      This is the same poll released Monday that showed McCrory up 3 points over Cooper.

  • MB

    and I thought the stooOOoopid was BIGGLIER in Tex-ass.

    What a bunch of wankers.

  • Michael Smith

    Keep in mind Obama lost this in 2012 and still won by a good margin. Trump has to win North Carolina in my opinion.

    • Chitown Kev

      Obama won it in 2008…I agree, Trump must win NC to even have a chance…Hillary could lose Florida, Ohio, Iowa, and Pennsylvania and still win if she wins CO, NM and NC

      • SelectFromWhere

        It’s very unlikely she would win NC and not PA–but she can lose FL, OH, NC, IA, and NV and still win if she holds the others.
        It is noted that she will probably lose the renegade 2nd Congressional district of Maine, so make sure that no “path to victory” is within a 2-EV margin without counting that.

    • JustSayin’

      It is the electoral votes that matter and hillary needs to work harder in the battleground states. Winning the popular vote is nice but there are excess votes in the solid red and solid blue states and not enough in the swing states to chnage the popular vote.

  • Ninja0980

    Which is why the NC GOP is still trying to do everything they can to suppress the votes of POC.
    Because they know for sure they can win if our side can’t vote.

    • Romero

      Mm Hm! This is why I could have slapped those (as some of you call them) “Bernie Bros” for claiming Hillary was “rigging” this election. If anybody is rigging this election, it’s republicans. The gerrymandering, unconstitutional voter suppression laws, hacking voter registration records…

      • Mike C

        For the Bernie Bros rigging = “I couldn’t get off my ass to register to vote or change my party on time like a normal person.”

        • The bigger question is why should they have to? Most people don’t want to be tied to a party, and furthermore, many of the state registration laws were complex. For example, in NYS, you had to switch 6 months ahead of time. Many people did not know who they were going to vote for last fall.

          • SelectFromWhere

            Yes, I’m glad that North Carolina (which is what this thread is about) allows Unaffiliated voters to vote whichever party’s primary ballot they want. I try to convince everybody I know to switch to Unaffiliated, since you get MORE choices. Also, it makes it harder for them to gerrymander you if they don’t know what party you support.
            The vast majority of younger voters who’ve registered for the first time in the past 8 years or so, are registering Unaffiliated.

          • Dramphooey

            Yeah, most people don’t want to be tied to a party. That’s what destroyed unions and it’s how the American worker was screwed.

        • Judas Peckerwood

          Can we retire this “Bernie Bro” bullshit already? I know that people still have raw feelings from the primaries, but now is not the time to wallow in them. If I were a Trump/GOP operative, I’d be posting comments like yours to divide the Democratic base.

          • Lawerence Collins

            You know who’s really dividing the Democratic Party? Hillary Clinton, that’s who. Debbie Wasserman Schultz and every other person who said his supporters were wrong! That’s who’s dividing the Democratic Party. I’m 53, I’d waited my entire voting life to vote for someone with real, true progressive ideals.
            People here can hate me all they want. The truth is out there. I had my head up my own ass to the truth about my former political hero for so long. Is this saying I want that thug Trumpf to win? No it doesn’t.

          • Dramphooey

            I’ll bite; who was your former hero?

          • Lawerence Collins

            Our entire family had always been huge supporters of the Clintons. Rallies, door to door, phone banking, donating funds.

          • Dramphooey

            Agreed; Sanders is with us and many former “bros” aren’t voting for Stein. However, this discussion does seem to be from a historical perspective.

          • Kay

            At this point, attacking Hillary’s health is going to do a better job of dividing Clinton voters than stirring up resentment between Bernouts and Hillary supporters.

            Trump has the anti-establishment/change vote locked in, which was a chunk of the Bernie supporters. For the ultra-progressive voters, neither of the candidates looks like a good option, but Hillary is definitely better.

            Personally, I’d like to see them put Elizabeth Warren instead of Hillary, then have her come out saying that at her age, health can change quickly. There is a huge risk electing a 70-year old, and it should really be done by someone younger with a bit more energy. That lets her turn her weakness into one shared with Trump.

    • another_steve

      Voter suppression on November 8 has the potential of being a major major issue at the polls. It’s long been a goal of the Republicans, but this year — with Bannon in charge — it’s a whole new ballgame.

      I trust, hope, that the DNC is preparing to spend mega-bucks to monitor the situation at the polls on Election Day.

      • fuzzybits

        Not that I expect it where we vote because I would hate to have to be on the six o clock news.

      • Ninja0980

        Not to mention WI where their voter suppression law was upheld.

        • jimbo65

          Unfortunately the high courts in Wisconsin are infested with Scott Walker appointees or sympathizers

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        • Kay

          It’s ridiculous that someone needs an ID to buy a gun (a constitutionally protected right, protected against the federal and state government), but not to vote in an election (another constitutionally protected right).

          Voting IDs should be free, secure, and issued at the post office, with someone coming to register anyone who is unable to make it. A quick push in an off year, and we can get everyone an ID. At that point, people can’t try to make it out as “suppression”.

          If Mexico can manage voter ID, without it being seen as “anti-poor people”, and Canada can manage to require ID to vote (with the option to have someone vouch if the ID is lost), then the US should be able to manage it, too. Take away the cost, and we can move on with security.

          http://www.snopes.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/mexicovoterid.jpg

      • SelectFromWhere

        NC’s ID and other suppression laws were held unconstitutional, but the problem is, there is so much confusion about it (“do we need ID or don’t we?”) because the ID ruling just went into effect this year for the Primary, now has been blocked, so many less-informed voters don’t know either way, and may just avoid trying to vote expecting a hassle. That, of course, is exactly what the GOP is aiming for.

  • shellback

    North Carolina, you vote for the worst the planet has to offer, and still you don’t learn. What is wrong with you?

    • OdieDenCO

      that’s what I thought. NC is experiencing some major economic loss because the republicans mounted a crusade against a non-existent issue and they think republican donny is the cats meow.

  • Ray

    Elon. Wonder how much Trump paid for these results.

    • bkmn

      Trump is only familiar with Felon University.

      • delk

        Ouch! That one hurt my stitches!

    • Not enough for a clear win it seems.

    • JustSayin’

      From the poll documents
      Frequently Asked Questions
      1. Who pays for the Elon University Poll?
      Elon University fully funds the Elon University Poll. The poll operates under the auspices of the
      College of Arts and Sciences at Elon University, led by Dean Gabie Smith. The Elon University
      administration, led by Dr. Leo Lambert, president of the university, fully supports the Elon
      University Poll as part of its service commitment to state, regional, and national constituents.
      Because of this generous support, the Elon University poll does not engage in any contract work.
      This permits the Elon University Poll to operate as a neutral, non-biased, non-partisan resource.

  • Magician Penn Jillette worked with Trump—’However bad you think he is, he’s worse’
    http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/9/20/1572276/-Magician-Penn-Jillette-worked-with-Trump-However-bad-you-think-he-is-he-s-worse

    Famous magician, television personality and, in the tradition of Harry Houdini, conspiracy theory debunker Penn Jillette was interviewed by Reason TV’s Nick Gillespie while on a promotional tour of Jillette’s book Presto!: How I Made Over 100 Pounds Disappear and Other Magical Tales. The book is a memoir of sorts, told through the experience of intense dieting. He covers some of this election cycle in the book and Gillespie wanted to ask him about his experiences with Donald Trump, the two having worked together on the Donald-hosted Celebrity Apprentice, not once but for two seasons. Jillette and Donald had a falling out, purportedly over a statement that Jillette made saying that Donald Trump’s hair “looked exactly like cotton candy made with piss.”

    .

    • Treant

      I read that. Now if I had any respect for Jillette’s politics… 🙂

    • Kay

      The Secret Service agents who have worked with Hillary have a similar set of horror stories.

      Her wrath is somewhat famous. I work in security, and have had the opportunity to work with individuals who have worked in her orbit. She’s not the kind of person you want to piss off, and she can get verbally and physically abusive.

      It makes me sympathetic to Bill, honestly.

  • Why bother reaching out to black voters when you can just prevent them from voting?

  • Lazycrockett

    Im just gonna assume that 23% are just regular old racist.

  • VodkaAndPolitics

    North Carolina, the state that can never quite make up their mind if they’re terrible or not.

  • Ragnar Lothbrok

    Ellen has a poll ? Why she do that ?

  • SoCalGal20

    PPP is releasing their NC poll tomorrow. Their polling dates are more recent than Elon.

  • Merv99

    If we’re still neck-and-neck in North Carolina, things can’t be that bad.

  • MBear

    The state that brings you vile legislated discrimination against minorities at the expense of their citizens is proud to support Trump for President! LOL

    #NCEXIT…please

  • jimbo65

    Hillary REALLY needs to start tying Trump to the GOP. Telling the American people how horrible Trump is is all well and good. But it’s time to tie him to the GOP and hold their feet to the fire. He has little to no support within his party. Not one of them has gone on the campaign trail for him. They give weak condemnation of his words, but are always careful not to attack him. Jesus, it should be a slam dunk.

  • MikeBx2

    I don’t think Trump can gain more of the women’s vote and there’s every reason to believe he’ll lose some after the debates.

  • Hank
  • Cindy

    The most shocking tidbit from that poll is the 1980’s being voted as better than today.

    • MBear

      bigger hair…shoulder pads…drum machines. Way better.

      • Paula

        Don’t forget answering machines with fake celebrity voices.

        • MBear

          Ooooh! and beepers!

        • EweTaw

          A French Canadian boyfriend from that era recorded our answering machine message in French. It was great. Only people we knew and wanted to hear from left messages. All cold sales calls and others were flummoxed and would just hand up.

      • Lazycrockett
        • Lazycrockett

          That’s how you applied rouge back in the day.

    • excy

      Ronald Reagan years….no surprise to me that the republicans loved the 80’s. Those years are pretty much a nightmare for me…too many friends lost to AIDS. On a lighter note…the late 80’s brought us Linda Evangelista 🙂

    • and zero rights for LGBT.

      • SelectFromWhere

        Actually Gay rights (as they were called then) were chugging along pretty well after the “Sexual revolution” of the late 1970s–then along came AIDS and made everybody think we were lepers. Back to Zero.

        • EweTaw

          The Quilt was displayed at the Salt Palace for a week. It was a sobering thing, seeing how many panels represented people all the close, semi close friends and acquaintances I knew. It was in 1987 (or 89) and I remember counting 120 names of wonderful people I once knew. Major tragedy.

  • Paula

    ELON, the best poll results that money can buy.

  • fuzzybits

    Tommy Chong recently said he named his colostomy bag Donald Trump because it was full of hot air and useless shit.

  • ETownCanuck

    I’m embarrassed to live next to a country where Donald Trump is even being considered to be President.

  • Todd

    Dear ALL Johnson voters, Undecided voters and THOSE NOT VOTING AT ALL ….

    ……. http://www.feminiya.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/funny-gif-girl-screaming.gif

  • FAEN

    Dumpster spoke at High Point University earlier today. Watching these overly privledged white students cheer for racism, xenophobia, misogyny and for the shredding of our Constitution made me sick to my stomach.

    Aside from Clinton winning NC and the election it’s my hope the Dems sooner rather than later take back the State Legislature.

    This Nazi like ideology that has become GOP mainstream has got to go.

  • fuzzybits

    Too bad they couldn’t shake NC and get rid of all the nasty bigots because it’s a beautiful state.

  • Joe knows who I am.

    Sure.

  • DH Esq

    NC is not a big deal for us and is historically not a Democratic state; it has voted for the Democratic Presidential candidate only once since 1992.

    The fact that it is even close for Hillary means that Trump is not doing well.

    • SelectFromWhere

      NC actually is very much a Purple state. We went for Obama by the thinnest margin of any state in 2008, and to Romney by the thinnest margin of any state in 2012. Historically at the state level, we’ve almost always had Democratic governors and legislatures; unfortunately, the recession of 2008-09 caused a red sweep into the Legislature just in time to gerrymander the districts to ridiculously Republican-skewed. Then a weak Democratic governor who got blamed for the recession pulled out of the race and McCrory won in 2012 (she had beaten him the first time around), as one of only 3 Republican governors in over 100 years (and the last two were very moderate and respected by Democrats). As bad as we’ve looked in the past few years, we really ARE a moderate state overall in the population. Nate Silver has had us flip-flopping from blue to red and back again several times, and electionprojections.com shows us tipping Blue even now.

      Basically there are 5 “swing states” (FL, OH, NC, IA, NV) who have been teetering between Blue and Red all along in the projections. Luckily for Clinton, she can lose ALL FIVE and still win, though that’s a very scary thought and too close for comfort. If she takes either FL or OH, she probably has it locked up, one of those plus one of the other 3 and she almost certainly does. Unless PA goes renegade…

  • JustSayin’

    The poll was of 644 likely voters -+3.98% with 98% confidence level
    They provided a lot of info which is good. But look down to see the race splits, raw sobe is 17% black respondents. Also look at call times. Poll is Not noise but not solid either

    Methodological Information
    Mode:……………………………….Live Interviewer, Cell Phone and Landline
    Population …………………………Likely Voters, North Carolina
    Sample: …………………………….Voter Registration List, North Carolina
    Dates in the field:……………….September 12-16, 2016
    Sample Size:………………………644
    Margin of Error:…………………+/- 3.86
    Confidence Level:………………95%
    Weighting Variables: ………….Age, Race, and Sex, Registered Party Identification

    The Elon University Poll conducted the survey in English. Live interviewers called from 4:30 pm to
    9:30 pm on Monday to Thursday (9/12-9/15) and 3:00 pm to 8:00 pm on Friday 9/16.

    The table below presents key sample parameter before and after weighting.
    NC SOBE Parameter (read numbers in this order with Sobe first number)
    Unweighted Sample (Registered Voters) Weighted Sample(Registered Voters)
    Sex : Male 45.7% 39% 45.7%
    Sex: Female 54.3% 61% 54.3%
    Registered Party: Democrat 40.1% 41.4% 40.1%
    Registered Party: Republican 30.4% 35.6% 30.4%
    Registered Party: Unaffiliated 29.5% 23.0% 29.5%
    Race: White 68.4% 80.1% 70.7%
    Race: Black 21.8% 17.7% 22.5%
    Race: Not Black or White 9.8% 2.2% 6.8%

    • SelectFromWhere

      As one who has a copy of the NC Voter registration list and does registration here, I can tell you that only a small minority of people registered have a phone number listed on their registration–it is not required, and even if someone filled it out when they registered, that could have been several phone numbers ago. If this is what they are using, they’re likely getting mostly people who registered under a land line decades ago and still have it, i.e. a skewing conservative population (even if they are Unaffiliated).

  • j.martindale

    We still have the debates to look forward to. I see no way that those can benefit tRump. I expect Clinton to jump way up in the polls after that.

  • Sam_Handwich

    what the hell was so great about the 80’s?

    tear down that myth!

    • BobSF_94117

      We had a booming economy… which we’ve been paying for ever since.

      • Sam_Handwich

        weren’t there two recessions in the 80’s? maybe 3?

        • BobSF_94117

          Silly, those were Carter’s fault…

        • RobynWatts

          Stock market crash of 1987, A scandal ridden Reagan Administration, selling chemical weapons to Saddam Hussein, the real threat of nuclear holocaust, S&L scandals, deregulating everything in sight……

          The only two things I liked about the 80s were the music and the variety of fashions. Much of everything else was a nightmare.

          • EweTaw

            I still like De Peche Mode and Queers for Tears. Men Without Hats were amusing.

    • Megrim Twist

      My hair! and synthesizers!

    • stevenj

      Reagan??

    • Richard, another Canuck

      The rich got richer with the introduction of trickle down economics, a republican specialty. Good for the rich, but the middle class took a tumble, and the poor were blamed for every trouble around.

    • pablo

      I was a teenager. That made it pretty great.

    • John30013

      The music, but that’s about it.

  • dr morbius

    These several-times-a-day poll screamlines are “trash news” designed to keep you clods in menopausal hot flashes for another 7 weeks.

    • EweTaw

      Good old Dr. Mobius. Still running flip loops on the same old track.

  • Mickey Bitsko

    How many Putins can a Put puck pick ’til a Put puck Put pick pucks?

    (Repeat five times really fast and call your doctor in the morning)

  • Sam_Handwich

    Also gives McCrory a 3 point lead 🙁

    BUT shows Deborah Ross +1 over Richard Burr in the senate race

    http://www.elon.edu/e-net/Article/137589

  • ShawnSwagger

    She can lose NC, OH, IA, FL and NV (and AZ, GA and MO, which were always long-shots) and still win the election. But what does that say about America if Drumpf can win half the states?

  • Randy503

    My follow up question to those voting for Johnston: If he were not in the race, would you likely vote for Clinton or Trump?

    If those votes would go to Clinton, then we have our spoiler.

  • Mark Neé Fuzz

    Assuming that Stein falls into the undecided/other/Oh look a shiny category.

  • kevin vincent

    Anyone else seriously getting scared about the 538 thing? Clinton is barely holding onto 270

    • Treant

      No. This is the season of “let’s manipulate the polls to make it look like a horse race so you’ll click and/or watch us!”

      Start trusting the polls around October 15th–at that point, they have to come back into parity to what can actually be expected or the pollsters begin to lose the trust of the public.

      • Ross

        I agree.

        In 2012, Obama was forecast with an 87% chance of winning on October 4 (via 538).

        Eight days later he dropped like a stone to 61%.

        Then, when voters started paying attention, he shot up to 91%.

        THIS CRAZINESS IS NORMAL.

      • kevin vincent

        Isn’t skewed polls what Trump was whining about ages ago?

  • Jean-Marc in Canada

    Take note of the third part support for Trump, because let’s face it, if they aren’t for Hillary, they’re clearly for Trump. Seig Heil BernieBro & Jill Stein assholes, Seig Heil.

  • Tigernan Quinn

    I like Hillary a lot…but I can’t help but think that Biden would have this completely tied up by now.

  • JCF

    Get.Out.The.Vote!!!!!!

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