Handicapper Moves Maine Senate Race To Leans Dem

Just in from Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball:

Of 16 publicly-released polls of the race that have come out this year (as compiled by FiveThirtyEight’s database) from nonpartisan, Democratic, and Republican sources, Susan Collins has only led in a single one, a Republican internal poll conducted in mid-June. Collins led 45%-38% in that survey.

A few others have shown Gideon up only a point. But notice that even in this GOP internal, the longtime incumbent Collins was at just 45% of the vote. Across the 16 polls this year, her average support on the ballot has been just 42%. That is not a strong number for an incumbent who surpassed 60% in her last two reelection bids.

Just like in our other Leans Democratic-rated Senate races in states held by Republicans — Arizona and Colorado — there are paths to a Republican comeback. But for now we think Collins is in a difficult enough position that we’re moving the race to Leans Democratic.

At the link you’ll also see that the Lindsey Graham vs Jaime Harrison race has been moved from Likely Republican to Leans Republican.