CDC Issues Lifetime Risks For HIV Diagnosis

According to a first-of-its-kind study issued today by the Centers For Disease Control, black gay men in the United States have a 50% chance of an HIV+ diagnosis in their lifetime. All men who have sex with men face a 79-times higher risk of contracting HIV than do heterosexual men. From the CDC’s press materials:

A CDC study released in February 2016 provides the first-ever comprehensive national estimates of the lifetime risk of an HIV diagnosis for several key populations at risk and in every state.

Overall, the likelihood that an American will be diagnosed with HIV at any point during his or her life is now 1 in 99, an improvement from a previous study using 2004-2005 data that reported lifetime risk at 1 in 78. Despite overall progress, this study reveals stark disparities by race, risk group and geography.

Lifetime Risk of an HIV Diagnosis Varies by Mode of Transmission: Gay and bisexual men continue to be most affected by HIV in the U.S. At current rates, 1 in 6 men who have sex with men (MSM) will be diagnosed with HIV in their lifetime, making them 79 times more likely than heterosexual men to be diagnosed with HIV in their lifetimes. People who inject drugs are also at increased risk.

CDC’s High Impact Prevention approach focuses on delivering the most effective prevention strategies – including HIV testing, ongoing care and treatment for people living with HIV, pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP, a daily anti-HIV pill for high-risk uninfected people) and condoms – to the populations that are most heavily affected by the epidemic.

CDC devotes more HIV prevention resources to MSM, especially MSM of color, than to any other risk group. And since 2010, CDC has greatly increased HIV prevention funding to Southern health departments and community-based organizations, to reflect the burden of HIV in the region.


  • 5moreminutes*imtired

    Take your PrEP, guys. Don’t know about you, but I think its a major turn on…

    • Americanish

      There is always a pill.

      There are never any tradeoffs in disease control.

      Unicorn farts are real.

      • 5moreminutes*imtired

        What are you assuming from my comment, and what is the alternative?

        • Americanish

          The alternative is monogamy or celibacy.

          I am assuming that you are advocating keep on keeping on cuz someone will come up with a fix to save you from yourself.

          • 5moreminutes*imtired

            Ummmmm. K.

          • Americanish

            Just pointing out the facts.

            No, I am not going to save you. I want to be on a different health insurance plan so I do not have to pay promiscuous people gay or straight.

          • 5moreminutes*imtired

            Because PrEP equals promiscuous? And this is based on your feelings? Are we having an intelligent conversation because you assume stuff?

          • Americanish

            Monogamous couples don’t need PrEP. Swingers, promiscuous str8s and gays do.

          • 5moreminutes*imtired

            Bill Perdue, is that you? You tricky dicky. I’m only talking to you by meme!

          • Americanish

            I learned long time ago that even though they have penicillin, that you could get syphilis and not be able to be cured. This was before resistant strains. So the little pill does not always work. I remember a prostitute working the Beer Garden in Singapore. No one would make eye contact with her. They knew she had incurable syphilis.

            So go ahead and believe in your little pill to always be there to save you.

          • 5moreminutes*imtired

            Haha. Got all this from my one comment about taking PrEP, did you?

          • Americanish

            No, I got most of it from discussion on PrEP from a couple years back on this blog.

            A lot of people said if PrEP was 90% effective, they were going to throw the condoms away.

          • 5moreminutes*imtired

            Hi. My name is random internet stranger. I didn’t speak with you a couple years back. Don’t assume stuff about people you don’t know, you sanctimonious shit head. I still use condoms, rarely have sex, and am no longer a basket case worrying about condoms possibly breaking. Fuck off, or go fuck your partner (and pray he’s not diddling behind your back). I don’t worry. I’m on PrEP.

          • Americanish

            I am looking at averages.

  • joe ho

    the CDC once again serves more red meat to the gays are diseased and icky crowd.

    • j.martindale

      AIDS is an illness. People that want to make it a moral failure are really fucked up.

      • Americanish

        Other people do not gets STDs, so they can be less conscious than gays

        Oh wait, other people also get STDs.

        • j.martindale

          The prevalence of AIDS in the gay community requires a higher degree of vigilance among gays than has been demonstrated to date.

          • Americanish

            “They are more vulnerable to acquiring the disease.”

            One of the papers by Hugo Mialon and Andrew Francis gave the risk of transmitting HIV by anaI interc_urse to be higher than regular interc_urse.

            No one wants to talk about it.

    • Rick Tan

      I think you should be much more concerned with how to prevent this, than sweeping it under a rug.

      • joe ho

        i can multitask!

    • Americanish

      The Hershey Highway is icky.

      Thus the douching.

      • ChrisMorley

        Your Homophobic TROLLING is boring.

  • AJA

    Condoms still work great, guys! No reason to let this study let you be afraid to shag!

    • another_steve

      And PrEP.

      Used together, you’ll live long and prosper.

    • Ginger Snap

      I love the word shag so much better than fuck.

    • Americanish

      Yes, Bareback with abandon.

      There is always a pill!

      Remember kiddies, sexually transmitted cancer is right around the corner.

      You can take that to the bank.

      • Bad Tom

        Using a condom is the opposite of barebacking.
        You are immune to facts and compassion.

        • Americanish

          Condoms don’t break?

          Condoms cover everything?

          • Bad Tom

            Now you move the goalposts: you equate a 2% chance of breaking as the same as not using a condom at all.

            Having unprotected sex with someone with HIV doesn’t guarantee you’d be infected; so there’s a probability associated with that. Combined with 98% effectiveness of a condom, combined with 98% effectiveness of PrP, pushes the chances of being infected quite low.

            Human intimacy is a genuine, compelling need. The sex drive is right up there with the need for food, water, shelter, and air.

            The lack of it causes the personality to become dry, hostile, and bitter. Rather like yourself.

            Which explains why no one takes your advice.

  • hiker_sf

    For the MSM, is this an indication that black men tend to have sex with black men, or is there something else at work?

    • NancyP

      Lack of access to health care would seem to be the major problem, which means lack of early diagnosis and treatment to “undetectable” virus levels, and lack of strong messages about the personal responsibility to avoid transmitting one’s disease to others. This problem would be exacerbated by even a small preference of black MSM to seek out other black MSM rather than white or hispanic MSM. The prevention outreach has been less complete in the black community, due to less funding and due to more individuals not participating in the sorts of gay community activities where education about prevention is promoted (and free condoms dispensed). It’s not for lack of trying – there are valiant hardworking black peer educators out there – but lack of appropriate levels of resources and of venues. There’s also the Southern religious factor – Southern states, and some more religious Northern states like Indiana, are very resistant to putting any resources toward gay and bi health or toward HIV in general. Add up all the factors, and small differences in individual factors result in giant discrepancies in infection rate.

      (I don’t have first-hand experience, HIV prevention is not my field, this is just the received wisdom in public health literature. Experts are begged to reply with information and ideas.)

    • WebSlinger
      • Hue-Man

        These figures are even more frightening than the headlines. Because of effective drug treatments, HIV is now considered by many to be a chronic illness that doesn’t reduce life expectancy significantly. But that is based on HIV+ individuals having access to the medications for the rest of their lives.

        African-Americans are not getting diagnosed, aren’t getting treated, are infecting others, and won’t enjoy a “normal” life expectancy. I’m not being judgmental – targeted efforts have to be increased, i.e. more people have to be treated, if there is ever any hope of eradicating HIV.

        • Americanish

          ” But that is based on HIV+ individuals having access to the medications for the rest of their lives.”

          You have Obama Care so you should be good with your meds, right?

          • Hue-Man

            I live in Socialist Canuckistan where HIV meds and medical services are free and our Stalinist leadership is actively reaching out to communities that have increased HIV risks – IV drug users and First Nations peoples, in addition to the traditional “Men who have Sex with Men”. The provincial agency’s motto is “Treatment as Prevention”.

            The most HIV-vulnerable Americans are too poor to afford Obamacare and too rich for Medicaid. HIV stops being a routine chronic illness without access to medication.

    • Chris

      There’s a lot of factors. Poverty, lack of access to affordable healthcare, increased chances of serving time in prison, etc.

      The CDC also documents a lot of widespread stigma and misinformation about HIV/AIDS in the African-American community. A friend of mine does LGBT outreach work in minority communities. I couldn’t tell you how many times he’s tried to get out and proud gay black dudes to swing by the clinic for free HIV testing, only to be told: “Nah, I’m good. I don’t fuck with white boys.”

      All these years later, there’s an unfortunately high number of LGBT minorities who still think HIV/AIDS is the gay white man’s disease. It’s really tragic. 🙁

      • Americanish

        “lack of access to affordable healthcare”

        Really? Really?

        You went there?

        We have had ObamaCares for 2 or 3 years now.

        Let me guess after 10 or 20 years of OboloCare, there will be no disease anymore.

        • Marky

          Medical plans, like ours in Canada, have a funny habit of not covering certain conditions, the treatment of which make a A LOT OF MONEY for doctors and hospitals. Just sayin’.

          • Americanish

            That is good to know. Not saying it is right, but it is good to know the pros and cons.

  • Octavio

    Looks as though HIV is still killing off the groups that straight white males prefer to eliminate from the human population. At least there is Prep.

  • bkmn

    More proof the Main Stream Media is a problem.

    • Americanish

      The Press wing of the Democrat Party is the problem?

  • Rocco Gibraltar

    How long before the right wing nuts spin this data? What headline do you expect to see on WND or Breitbart?

    • MonochromeMouse

      if i had to guess, something along the lines of “CDC reports 50% of homosexual men infected with HIV” or something similarly misleading to people who don’t know how to read statistics/charts

    • clay

      As if they need this report to report bullshit.

  • WebSlinger

    1. Condoms are over 90% effective to reduce infection of HIV and other STI with proper adherence and usage.

    2. PrEP is over 90% effective to reduce infection of HIV with proper adherence and usage.

    3. Undetectable viral load is over 90% effective to reduce infection of HIV with proper adherence and usage of medication

    • Rambie

      I read a report today there is a second option for PrEP too besides just Truvada. More options for PrEP is great and yes, using condoms on top of PrEP, is the most effective at preventing a HIV infection.

    • Nic Peterson

      Step one is Get Tested.
      Step two is Get Educated.
      Step three is follow your treatment protocol. PrEP or PEP — stick with it.
      Step four is to encourage others to do the same.

      We can beat this disease.

  • Gyeo

    Interestingly, no stats on HIV prevalence among Asian Americans, even though the number of Asian immigrants is increasing.

    • ChrisMorley

      The HIV risk for Asian Americans lies much closer to that run by white gay Americans (1 in 11), than the lifetime risks of African Americans and Hispanic gay and bi men (“1 in 2 African American MSM and 1 in 4 Hispanic MSM will be diagnosed with HIV in their lifetime, compared with 1 in 11 white MSM”)


        But they’re not white. They’re Asian.

        • ChrisMorley

          Well observed. Here’s some CDC facts for you on Asian Americans’ exposure to HIV.
          Look at the male pie chart ‘Estimated Diagnoses of HIV Infection among Adult and Adolescent Asians, by Transmission Category and Gender, United States and 6 US Dependent Areas, 2011’.
          I said the Asian gay/bi men’s rate was closer to that of white gay/bi males. Stats indeed show about 2% of Asian American HIV infections are among gay/bi men.

          • THEBEARCUB


  • Rebecca Gardner

    I want to hand this chart to Sarah Palin and hear her complain about MSM. The Main Stream Media.

    Let’s get real, you know she’ll read these graphs and take away only one thing. Gay Men are the “Lame Stream Media.”

  • JT

    Lifetime risk is higher for people in Southern United States

    I wonder if it has anything to do with thumping that other thing.

    • Yup throwing out “abortion clinics” that provide free health care to both genders

  • Matt Rogers

    The CDC refers to “men who have sex with men” in recognition of the fact that you don’t have to be gay or bi to have sex with a member of your own sex. I wish they had made this clearer in their press materials. Right wing groups will take this kind of thing and run with it.

    It bears emphasizing that this press release is about diagnosis risk, not transmission risk. Findings of this sort tend to set off media hand-wringing about unsafe sex in the gay community, but in fact, gay men are around 50% more likely than straight men to practice safe sex. Still not likely enough, obviously.

    Gay men could have a genetic predisposition to develop symptoms when exposed to HIV, making it something like sickle-cell anemia among black people or Tay-Sachs disease among Jewish people. While researchers have suggested this, I’d like to see some studies done to test the hypothesis. Several genetic markers seem to be associated with sexual orientation, so it should be feasible to correlate them with HIV diagnosis.

    • ChrisMorley

      Genetical explanations might be a contributory factor. Most of the explanation lies in the relative vulnerability of the anal lining membranes to HIV exposure compared with the tissues of the vagina or mouth.

      • Highly suceptaible cells line the male urethra…. But thatdoesn’t explain why “straight” men having sex with men won’t use condoms. A major contributory factor is ass deep denial

    • Ginger Snap

      So true almost every “straight” guy i have sex with doesn’t want to wear condoms.I have to make them put one on. I’ve even had more than a few guys say they aren’t gay so they don’t need to wear a condom only fags get diseases. The ignorance out there is amazing.

      • YES. Twisted irrational minds! During my shifts on the San Francisco AIDS Foundation hotline, I spoke to many a man who refused to carry condoms because that incident last night isn’t who they are. Yikes these “straights”!!

      • Marky

        Straight people are allergic to condoms. *rolls eyes*

  • Claude Jacques Bonhomme

    It would be interesting to see socioeconomic correlations. The map does show a political angle. The south, where sex education and access to health care are deficient does show a disproportionate number of cases per capita. Proper education would lead to prevention, instead of that abstinence crap.

    • WebSlinger

      here is some information a little dated but information nevertheless…

    • ChrisMorley

      Here are the reasons they identify:
      ‘Reasons for this higher lifetime risk include
      – higher prevalence within the community, which poses an increased risk of infection with each sexual encounter;
      – lack of access to healthcare;
      – poverty; and
      – stigma.’
      Bluntly put, being born African-American or Hispanic while gay/bi intensifies the experience of racism’s disadvantages.

      • Kim Williams

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        • ChrisMorley


    • 2guysnamedjoe

      I’d like to see correlations to factors that society could possibly do something about. Are there correlations to educational level, income, living in high-crime areas, religiosity, mental health, etc?

    • Americanish

      “The south, where sex education and access to health care are deficient does show a disproportionate number of cases per capita.”

      Who controls the big cities?

      Oh right Democrats.

      Who controls the school districts in Big cities?

      Oh righ,t Democraps.

      • ChrisMorley

        “the ability of Democratic-led cities to manuever in Republican states has its limits. In 2015, state GOP lawmakers across the South introduced local pre-emption bills to hem in localities’ ability to implement policies on issues from fracking to paid sick leave to anti-discrimination ordinances for LGBT residents.”

        Southern cities simply don’t control the sex education and access to healthcare of everyone in Southern states.

    • ChrisMorley

      There’s much more information here in this detailed report on this study

      • Claude Jacques Bonhomme

        Thank you!

  • Todd20036

    Well, condoms alone don’t seem to work. Maybe PReP would work. RIGHT AHF???

  • WSW don’t even make the cut, like one of the republican candidates who dropped out early.

    anyway, can we make this about class now? money is the problem here. men who eat steak, drink $500 whiskey and smoke cigars with other men 3-5x/wk also die at 75% higher rates of heart disease than other white men. billions of dollars are spent treating those men, even tho they make such irresponsible, immoral choices. class, and race are the issue here.

    why aren’t black men getting proper treatment? obviously white women in the rural states are. everyone has roughly equal rates of “risky” sex, but we just only assign that label to the poor, and treat them accordingly as if they’d done something wrong that no other group had done. let’s also not forget the lesson of Africa and Asia, where the HIV transmission narrative/scientific facts are quite different and don’t quite fit the Amurkin story of How Satan Gave Everyone AIDS with Faggy Sex.

    • clay

      One of the leading risk factors isn’t the method of sex, but the residential segregation. Those US neighborhoods that were hard hit / under-served in the 1990s are STILL being hard hit because people having riskier sex or sharing needles are more likely to be doing it with someone with HIV. Race and class are HUGE players in this even once we get beyond differences in testing, prevention, and treatment (and life issues competing with treatment). Just as our bodies have reservoirs for the virus, the way we’ve structured our neighborhoods by race and class has created reservoirs for the virus on a larger scale.

  • Baby Dave

    The states with the worst risk ratios are all in the Southeast.

    Note to self: Never fuck a Southerner.

  • jvc in NYC

    I’m a married gay man in a monogamous relationship. We are both HIV negative.

    My risk of contracting HIV (sexually) is 0%.

    The listed lifetime risks for gay men need to be qualified.

    • ChrisMorley

      You may feel that you and your partners’ life time risks of getting HIV is 0% because ‘monogamy’, but other monogamous relationships find that HIV intrudes more often than you may realise.
      Something has to explain the average 1 in 11 lifetime risk for white gay/bi males in the US.

      • Americanish


    • justmeeeee

      The numbers are aggregates–if you have HIV then your risk was obviously 100% at some point. If you never get it, then your risk was always 0%. The numbers represent statistical chances based on demographic factors, and don’t hold any meaning for an individual person.

      • Americanish

        They hold meaning if you have a 1 night stand frequently.

    • John T

      You probably think this song is about you, don’t you.

    • ScottJ

      Until either one of you breaks your monogamy. Then you’re back to square one.

  • BobSF_94117

    black gay men in the United States have a 50% chance of an HIV+ diagnosis in their lifetime

    No, black men who have sex with men do. Not the same thing (hence the whole MSM thingy).

  • Raising_Rlyeh

    How long before the homophobes use this as proof that being gay is a national threat? I’m giving it less than 24 hours. They will not be able to understand the difference between being gay and being a msm.

  • Circ09

    The first graph reminds me once again of that old joke about “lesbians are God’s chosen people”. Now if we could eradicate herpes…

    • Americanish

      The Messiah, Obama the Munificent, is changing the law to allow virulent strains of Chlamydia into the U.S.

      Then you have zika being zexually transmitted.

      Zexually transmitted cancer is around the corner.

      Can you proof yourself against every disease with pills?

      How many pills can you take at once?

      • vorpal

        How many pills can you take at once?

        Given what an obnoxious little troll you are, why don’t you go find out first-hand?

        • THEBEARCUB

          If you notice no one has responded to it. Please do the same.

          • medaka

            Just flag its tired ass.

          • vorpal

            Good advice, undoubtedly, but I’m a mischievous little kitty, and sometimes I can’t help myself.

        • Americanish

          I had to have vaccinations for the military and the medical person told me they could only give so many shots at 1 time. There are trade offs. For example a MRAP is optimized against mines, but it makes it more vulnerable in a straight up fight. Same thing with the immune system. If you prime it against one thing it will leave the door open for something else.

          • vorpal

            I think you completely missed the intended meaning of my comment.

            You seem like a right ass-hat. Do the world a favour and go take several medicine cabinets’ worth of pills.

          • Americanish

            Why don’t you find lout if you can PrEP yourself against 30 different STDs at once and all the usual day to day germs and diseases.

          • vorpal

            Why would I need to?
            I’ve never had an STI, nor has my husband, and we are in a monogamous marriage.

          • Americanish

            Good for you +5 headchopper. You are not part of the problem. But by and large on weighted average gays a re bigger part of the problem given their population than str8s.

          • vorpal

            And lesbians are a smaller part of the problem than str8s.
            And when it comes to rampant obesity, it is vastly overrepresented amongst Americans than in the general population, and causes wide-ranging preventable health conditions that can dramatically shorten life expectancy and cost a huge amount of money in health care, requiring medications and surgeries.


      • ChrisMorley

        What a fun TROLL you are, with your private Disqus profile.

  • Given that nobody really knows how many gay people there are (or how many “men who have sex with men”), how can these stats possibly be definitive? And how could you gauge over a lifetime, when condom usage, preventive therapies and other medical and behavioral changes could occur at any time along the way? This seems to have way too many variables to really have any meaning.

    • Blake Jordan

      In the end, it will serve as more help to the anti-LGBT forces…

    • ChrisMorley

      I worked as an expert on HIV statistics within the British HIV community sector. I respect and trust the CDC’s statistical grasp of the facts and their extrapolation into lifetime risk projections.
      These are credible because they use a variety of evidence sources and analysis techniques.

  • Platos_Redhaired_Stepchild

    Wow, all the states that hate Planned Parenthood and comprehensive sex ed and love to slut shame are highest in STI rates! It’s like there’s some kind of correlation or something!

  • WebSlinger

      At one time pre Obama they never cared!

  • WebSlinger
  • WebSlinger
  • Americanish

    Just like legalizing gay marriage would bring down the AIDS rate, I think white gay men should date black gay men to bring down the rate of transmission in the black community

    “HALF of gay black men in the US will be diagnosed with HIV in their lifetime, CDC warns”

    Just wait until gay men start catching cancer from unprotected zex with or without a cure for AIDS.

  • e jerry powell

    And I can hear all the racist white twinks in West Hollywood now …

  • Kim Williams

    ❝my .friend’s mate Is getting 98$. HOURLY. on the internet.”….two days ago new McLaren. F1 bought after earning 18,512$,,,this was my previous month’s paycheck ,and-a little over, 17k$ Last month ..3-5 h/r of work a day ..with extra open doors & weekly. paychecks.. it’s realy the easiest work I have ever Do.. I Joined This 7 months ago and now making over 87$, p/h.Learn. More right Here:;/89➤➤➤➤➤ http://GlobalSuperEmploymentVacanciesReportsJobs/GetPaid/98$hourly…. .❦2:❦2:❦2:❦2:❦2:❦2:❦2:❦2:❦2:❦2:❦2:❦2:❦2:❦2:❦2:❦2:❦2:❦2:❦2:❦2:❦2:❦2:❦2:❦2:❦2:❦2:❦2:❦2:::::;/89………./

  • Cylux

    I wonder how much this growing subculture adds to the problem:-

    • Silver Badger

      Disgusting is too mild a term for these “articles”. Fortunately this is a self limiting community. More than anything else is is an example of what self loathing can lead to.

      • Cylux

        It’s experiencing a growth in numbers as getting pozzed, pozzing others is being romanticised over social media.

        • Silver Badger

          You can’t control human perversity. Sane people do not purposely infect others or try to become infected, A few sad idiots do not a majority make.