Tag Archives: Nate Silver

Bill O’Reilly says that instead of protesting the Mormons, gays should be protesting at black churches, but won’t because of fear of losing our “politically-correct cred.” Stats guru Nate Silver debunks the “blacks did it” opinion: Certainly, the No on 8 folks might have done a better job of outreach to California’s black and Latino communities. But the notion that …

With all the often wildly-conflicting polls, the one site I kept drifting back to was stats geek Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight. History will be very kind to Silver’s predictive prowess. His final call of 349 electoral votes for Obama is dead-on for the current results, although Obama’s total may increase slightly as the couple of still deadlocked states are finally decided.

Could this explain the great disparity between polls? Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight: The polls in the Cingular-y orange color include cellphones in their samples; the polls in gray do not. The cellphone polls have Obama ahead by an average of 9.4 points; the landline-only polls, 5.1 points. I did a radio hit the other afternoon with Mark DeCamillo of California’s …

Probabilities by FiveThirtyEight.com, a site that you should be following (if you aren’t already). The author is 30 year-old stats whiz Nate Silver.