Tag Archives: Nate Silver

Nate Silver’s Electoral Update

Silver’s popular vote forecast remains a statistical tie.

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Nate Silver: Obama Slides Five

Source.

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Will Ohio Be The Decider?

Another interesting chart from Nate Silver.

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Nate Silver’s Electoral Map

Source.

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Nate Silver’s Probability Chart

Source.

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Nate Silver On Amendment One

Statistics guru Nate Silver reports the poll numbers: The most recent poll was conducted by Civitas Institute, a conservative think tank whose poll results have generally shown little partisan bias in the past. That survey polled Democratic and Republican primary voters separately, but projected that the measure would win by 16 percentage points when it combined the results. An April …

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Silver On Santorum

It is beyond batshittery that this is even up for discussion.

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Update From Nate Silver

(Source)

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Stats Guru Nate Silver Sez….

Nate Silver at the New York Times.

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NH Primary Projections

(Via – Nate Silver)

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Nate Silver On Hurricane History

Statistics geek Nate Silver charts the rare history of hurricanes and tropical storms in the northeast. According to Silver, a direct hit from a Category 1 storm could cost New York City as much as $22 billion in economic damages.

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Nate Silver: California Voters Would Overturn Proposition 8 In 2012

Elections prognosticator Nate Silver has published another super-complicated voting trends analysis. Even though there’s no plan to place a repeal of Prop 8 on the 2012 California ballot, Silver predicts that voters would overturn the measure if given the chance. Even the relatively cautious Linear Model predicts that 54 percent of Californians would vote against a measure like Proposition 8 …

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Marriage Opponents Now In Minority

Nate Silver looks at the latest polling trends on same-sex marriage. Republican candidates, who have placed less emphasis on gay marriage in recent years, probably cannot expect their opposition to it to be a net electoral positive for them except in select circumstances. If support for gay marriage were to continue accelerating as fast as it has in the past …

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GOP 2012 Favorables/Unfavorables

Nate Silver: It does look like Republicans have some legitimate reason to worry. In the previous five competitive primaries — excluding 2004 for the Republicans, when Mr. Bush won re-nomination uncontested — each party had at least two candidates whose net favorability ratings were in the positive double digits, meaning that their favorables bettered their unfavorables by at least 10 …

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2012 GOP Candidate Graph

(Via – Nate Silver)

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Nate Silver’s Final Governorships Forecast

Larger interactive version here. We’re certainly enjoying that dark blue in California, aren’t we? Florida remains troublesome, with teabagger and Medicare fraudster Rick Scott maintaining a slight lead over Democrat Alex Sink. In Illinois state Sen. Bill Brady is in a toss-up with Gov. Pat Quinn, who had the unenviable job of taking over for Rod Blogojevich. In Minnesota former …

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Nate Silver’s Final House Forecast

Larger interactive version here. Silver gives the Democrats an 18% chance of holding the House majority. Blue Dog Democrats have downplayed their support of health care reform and distanced themselves from the president, a mistake in my opinion, since many consider it the crowning achievement of the Obama administration so far.

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Nate Silver’s Final Senate Forecast

Larger interactive version here. Silver gives the GOP a 9% chance of winning the Senate majority. Keep your eyes on West Virginia, Washington, Nevada, Colorado, and Illinois. Alaska is really a mystery, what with Murkowski’s write-in campaign and the GOP backing away from its own nominee Joe Miller. Democrat Scott McAdams is only polling at 27%, but in a three-way …

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NEVADA: Nate Silver Sees Harry Reid’s Chances Shrinking Against Sharron Angle

Grim, grim, grim. As much as we loathe Lady Racist, at least some of this has to be due to Reid’s somnolent performance in the debate. He makes Al Gore look like a manic game show host.

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Nate Silver: GOP Will Gain 49 In House

Over at FiveThirtyEight, Nate Silver updates his forecasts today to predict that the GOP will pick up 49 seats in the House. That’s far fewer than the 100+ being claimed by some Republican flacks, but still enough for the GOP to take the majority by six seats. Silver hedges his bets: As I have warned repeatedly in the past, we …

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