Tag Archives: Nate Silver

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I usually post Nate Silver’s electoral college forecasts on Fridays, but today he notes a surge for Mitt Romney. Mitt Romney gained further ground in the FiveThirtyEight forecast on Monday, with his chances of winning the Electoral College increasing to 25.2 percent from 21.6 percent on Sunday. The change represents a continuation of the recent trend: Mr. Romney’s chances were …

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Elections prognosticator Nate Silver takes a look at the candidates’ post-convention bounces. The most impressive thing that our model did in 2008, in my view, was not in “calling” all but one of the states right on Election Day. There was very little doubt about who was favored in perhaps 46 or 47 of these states. The other three or …

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Nate Silver sees improvement from Romney, but cautions that the Ryan effect could be short-lived.

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