Tag Archives: Nate Silver

FiveThirtyEight: Dems “Slightly Favored” To Win Senate

Mediaite reports: Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight has forecasted that the Democratic Party will take control of the Senate this year. As of Friday, FiveThirtyEight predicts Democrats “are slightly favored to win the Senate.” “In 42 in 100 scenarios, Republicans win control,” the site declared, while in “58 in 100 scenarios, Democrats win control.” “Democrats have an 80% chance of holding between …

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FiveThirtyEight Forecast: Biden Has 71% Chance To Win

Nate Silver writes for FiveThirtyEight: Joe Biden currently has a robust lead in polls. If the election were held today, he might even win in a landslide, carrying not only traditional swing states such as Florida and Pennsylvania but potentially adding new states such as Georgia and Texas to the Democratic coalition. But the election is not being held today. …

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Nate Silver Doesn’t “Buy That Trump’s Fate Is Sealed”

Axios reports: FiveThirtyEight founder Nate Silver said on ABC’s “This Week” that while President Trump’s reelection bid is “clearly in trouble” due to his dismal coronavirus approval ratings and polling in swing states, he does not believe the president’s “fate is sealed.” “We found historically that when there are lots of major news events and economic disruptions, an election becomes …

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Former Trump Aide Fabricates Nate Silver Quote

Former Trump aide and Fox News regular Michael Caputo this afternoon tweeted a laughable lie, fabricating a Nate Silver quote that appears nowhere in the article he linked. Here’s a bit from Caputo’s Wikipedia page: Caputo moved to Russia in 1994 after the fall of the Soviet Union, and was an adviser to Boris Yeltsin and helped elect Yeltsin to …

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Nate Silver: Donald Trump’s Base Is Eroding

Nate Silver writes at FiveThirtyEight: A widely held tenet of the current conventional wisdom is that while President Trump might not be popular overall, he has a high floor on his support. Trump’s sizable and enthusiastic base — perhaps 35 to 40 percent of the country — won’t abandon him any time soon, the theory goes, and they don’t necessarily …

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Nate Silver Debunks Conway’s “Landslide” Claim

Such a silly, yet typical lie: Nate Silver, pollster and editor-in-chief of FiveThirtyEight, fact-checked Kellyanne Conway’s claim Monday that Donald Trump won the presidency in a historic landslide. Lined up alongside the last 10 elections, Silver noted that Trump’s win was, “actually way below average for a winner’s total,” coming in with only more votes than President George W. Bush. …

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Nate Silver: Hillary Is Probably Going To Win But She’s One State Away From Losing Electoral College [VIDEO]

The Hill reports: Hillary Clinton is one state away from losing the presidential election, FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver said Sunday. While the Democratic presidential nominee has a 65.7 percent chance of winning the presidency on Tuesday, she is not “in a terribly safe position,” the pollster said on ABC’s “This Week.” “The electoral map is actually less solid for Clinton than …

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Nate Silver: There Are Clearer Signs Of A Tighter Race

This morning Nate Silver noted that there are “clearer signs” that the presidential race is tightening. Here’s what he wrote yesterday before today’s slight change to his predictive map: Pretty much everyone has an incentive to push the narrative that the presidential race is tightening. The television networks would like for you to keep tuning in to their horse-race coverage. …

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Nate Silver: Trump Would Win If Vote Were Today, But Hillary Is Still Favored To Win In November

The Hill reports: Statistician Nate Silver on Monday said Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump would be favored to win if the general election occurred today. Trump now leads presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton, 57.5 percent to 42.5 percent, in that scenario, according to Silver’s website, FiveThirtyEight. FiveThirtyEight has Clinton besting Trump this November in two other prediction samples, however. …

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Nate Silver Gives Hillary 79% Chance Of Winning

ABC News reports: This morning on ABC’s “Good Morning America,” FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver predicted that Hillary Clinton will win the general election against Donald Trump. Clinton has a 79 percent chance of winning the election, compared to Trump’s 20 percent, according to FiveThirtyEight’s forecast. “We’re at halftime of the election right now,” Silver said. “She’s taking a seven-point, maybe a …

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Reuters Poll: Clinton & Trump Tied Nationwide

Reuters reports: Donald Trump’s support has surged and he is now running nearly even with Democrat Hillary Clinton among likely U.S. voters, a dramatic turnaround since he became the Republican party’s presumptive presidential nominee, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Wednesday. The results could signal a close fight between the two likely White House rivals as Americans make up …

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Nate Silver: Cruz And Clinton Will Win Iowa

Via Politico: Hillary Clinton and Ted Cruz have the greatest chances of winning the Iowa caucuses two weeks from Monday, new polling-based forecasts from FiveThirtyEight show. Cruz has a 51 percent chance of winning Iowa when national and state polls as well as endorsements are taken into account. In that forecast, Donald Trump trails Cruz with a 29 percent chance …

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Nate Silver: Hillary Has A 50/50 Shot

Statistics guru Nate Silver says that while Hillary Clinton will doubtlessly be the Democratic nominee, at present he gives her a 50/50 shot at becoming president. In a piece published yesterday on his FiveThirtyEight site, Silver lays out his case: Start with the fact that there’s no incumbent president running. There actually haven’t been a lot of cases that precisely …

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HomoQuotable – Nate Silver

“On Friday, I posed the question of whether the polls would have to be systematically wrong for Democrats to hold the Senate. Technically speaking, we’re not quite there yet. If Democrats win Georgia and Alaska and North Carolina, and [independent] Orman wins Kansas and caucuses with them, they’d hold the Senate even if Republicans flipped Iowa, Colorado and the five …

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Tweet Of The Day – Nate Silver

(Tipped by JMG reader Shawn)

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Nate Silver Compiles Prop 8 Donations By Staffers At Major Silicon Valley Companies

Using a Los Angeles Times database of donations to the 2008 Proposition 8 campaign, stats guru Nate Silver has compiled a list of how the staffers of major Silicon Valley tech companies weighed in with their wallets. The list includes Hewlett-Packard, Intel, Cisco Systems, Apple, Google, Sun Microsystems, eBay, Oracle, Yahoo, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and Symantec. I limited the …

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Nate Silver Predicts: GOP Has 60% Chance Of Winning Back The Senate In 2014

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Out’s 100 Most Eligible Bachelors

Out Magazine has published its annual 100 Most Eligible Bachelors list and while bear icon/PA state Rep. Brian Sims is on the list…so is Ken Mehlman.  Also featured: Jason Collins, Mo Rocca, Nate Silver, and Ricky Martin. UPDATE: Out is asking readers to vote on their favorites. Sims is currently in second place behind Adam Lambert.

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Tweet Of The Day – Nate Silver

Sullivan: “I guess I can die now.”

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ESPN Buys Nate Silver’s Blog

Nate Silver, the gay man who saved the sanity of millions of progressives during the 2012 election, is moving to ESPN. ESPN bought the FiveThirtyEight site and name outright, which differs from the New York Times’ current licensing deal, Silver said. Skipper described ESPN’s partnership with Silver as a “long-term, multi-year” deal; the purchase price was not disclosed. Silver said …

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