POLL: Ken Paxton Loses Lead In Texas US Senate Race

The Texas Tribune reports:

A new poll of Texas’ Senate GOP primary shows Sen. John Cornyn leading Attorney General Ken Paxton by 1 percentage point, breaking a spell of public polling that had found the incumbent trailing by wide margins.

In a sample of nearly 500 registered Texans planning to vote in the Republican primary, Cornyn garnered 30% of the vote to Paxton’s 29% — well within the poll’s 4.4% margin of error. Much of the Republican electorate is up for grabs, with 37% saying they were undecided.

If neither candidate wins 50% plus one vote in the March primary, the top two candidates would advance to a May runoff. The poll was conducted by Emerson College between Monday and Tuesday — the first public survey of the bitter primary since Cornyn allies began deploying millions in advertising.

Read the full article.

.@EmersonPolling Texas 2026 Senate Election:

Republican Primary
John Cornyn 29.5%
Ken Paxton 28.7%
Someone else 5%
Undecided 37.1%

General Election
🔴John Cornyn 45.2%
🔵Colin Allred 38.1%
Undecided 16.7%

🔴Ken Paxton 45.9%
🔵Colin Allred 40.6%
Undecided 13.6%

Aug 11-12, 2025 pic.twitter.com/XIr11tjfnD

— Aron Goldman (@ArgoJournal) August 15, 2025