Handicapper Moves North Carolina To Toss-Up

Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball reports:

North Carolina moves from Leans Republican to Toss-up in our Electoral College ratings, further emphasizing a focus on 7 key swing states to the exclusion of almost everywhere else. Kamala Harris is actually polling slightly better in North Carolina than Georgia, but there are reasons to think she’ll still perform a little better in the latter.

This is the first time this cycle that we have moved any electoral votes away from the Republican column into the Toss-up column. With this, the number of electoral votes at least leaning to Trump is now 219, down from 235.

We previously did this to Democrats earlier in the cycle, when we moved Pennsylvania and then Michigan from their column, reducing their “at least leaning” total from 260 down to the current 226. Beyond the 7 states in the Toss-up category, only a single electoral vote remains in the Leans column—Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District, which is Leans Democratic. Everything else is in the Likely or Safe columns on either side.

Read the full article.

NEW Crystal Ball Electoral College rating change

North Carolina goes from Leans Republican to Toss-up

Now 7 Toss-ups. Just one leaner (NE-2). Everything else Likely/Safe

as first seen in @playbookdc just now

Much more here — https://t.co/SeF9YpVtlX pic.twitter.com/Wj24qEw0Qy

— Kyle Kondik (@kkondik) August 20, 2024