Handicapper Forecasts Republican House Majority

Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball reports:

We now rate 218 House seats — the magic number for winning a majority — as at least Leans Republican in our House ratings. A large number of races remain close and competitive.

The danger for Democrats is that these races end up breaking disproportionately to the Republicans. 4 Toss-ups move to Leans Republican this week. After these changes, 218 seats at least Lean Republican, while 195 at least Lean Democratic, and there are 22 Toss-ups.

Splitting the Toss-ups evenly, 11-11, would give Republicans 229 seats, or a net gain of 16. We suspect the Republicans will do better than just a split in the Toss-ups, so our updated forecast is a GOP gain in the high teens or low 20s.

Read the full article. At the link you’ll find a list of how they project the results of each race. The site correctly called all but six House races in the 2018 midterms.

Crystal Ball: GOP hits magic number of 218 in House ratings as battle rages across big playing field. 5 ratings changes and the overall picture, all here: https://t.co/pUXopiK3m3 pic.twitter.com/EcNqiK3xWb

— Kyle Kondik (@kkondik) October 26, 2022