Chance Of Breakthrough Infection: About One In 5000

The New York Times reports:

Yes, Delta has increased the chances of getting Covid for almost everyone. But if you’re vaccinated, a Covid infection is still uncommon, and those high viral loads are not as worrisome as they initially sounded.

How small are the chances of the average vaccinated American contracting Covid? Probably about one in 5,000 per day, and even lower for people who take precautions or live in a highly vaccinated community.

The estimates here are based on statistics from three places that have reported detailed data on Covid infections by vaccination status: Utah; Virginia; and King County, which includes Seattle, in Washington state. All three are consistent with the idea that about one in 5,000 vaccinated Americans have tested positive for Covid each day in recent weeks.

Read the full article.

One in 5,000: The real chances of a breakthrough infection.
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— Devang Sanghavi, MD, MHA, FCCP (@Dev_Sanghavi) September 7, 2021