Just in from Monmouth Polling:
Among all registered voters in Arizona, the race for president stands at 50% for Biden and 44% for Trump. The contest stood at 48% to 44% one month ago and 46% to 43% in a poll taken shortly before the state’s presidential primary in March.
Another 2% currently support Jo Jorgensen and 4% are undecided. Biden (42%) trails Trump (51%) among non-Hispanic white voters, but has a large advantage among the state’s sizable Latino electorate (66% to 28%).
Using a likely voter model with a relatively high level of turnout, the race stands at 51% for Biden and 44% for Trump. The race tightens to 49% Biden and 47% Trump when using a likely voter model with lower turnout.
Trump beat Hillary Clinton by just under 4 points in 2016. Arizona has given its electoral votes to the Democratic candidate just once (1996) in the past 70 years.
Arizona: Registered voters
Joe Biden 50%
Donald Trump 44%
Mark Kelly (D) 52%
Martha McSally (R) 42%
— Kyle Griffin (@kylegriffin1) October 15, 2020