Noted polling site FiveThirtyEight has updated their odds on winning the general election and now is giving former Vice President Joe Biden a 90 percent chance of defeating President Donald Trump. These predictions are not just pulled out of a hat.
FiveThirtyEight has a formulaic process that simulates the election outcome 40,000 times based on average polling data from each state to see who wins most often. “The sample of 100 outcomes below give you a good idea of the range of scenarios our model thinks is possible.”
FiveThirtyEight is not an outlier here. Many polling aggregators also are giving Joe Biden big odds to win, and some with even bigger odds. The Economist, for example, is giving Joe Biden a 95% chance of winning the election on Tuesday.
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My favorite comment on the above-linked piece: “I like Biden’s odds. But I have to admit that if the captain told us to buckle up and enjoy the flight because we only have a ten percent chance of crashing, I don’t think I’d be enjoying the flight.”