ABC News reports:
A key forecasting model often cited by experts and used by the White House has revised its prediction of COVID-19 deaths in the U.S., now estimating a peak of 410,451 by January 1.
The model created by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington posted an update Friday predicting an additional 224,000 Americans will die by the beginning of next year.
The model says that as many as 122,000 of those deaths could be avoided with safety measures, including near-universal mask use, but it warns that easing restrictions could cause the death toll to be more than 620,000.
Breaking news: Key model used by White House now projects more than 400,000 Americans will die from coronavirus by January 1st — more than double current U.S. death toll. @IHME_UW estimates 3,000 Americans will die each day in December. Staggering!
— Javi Morgado (@javimorgado) September 4, 2020