Nate Silver Doesn’t “Buy That Trump’s Fate Is Sealed”

Axios reports:

FiveThirtyEight founder Nate Silver said on ABC’s “This Week” that while President Trump’s reelection bid is “clearly in trouble” due to his dismal coronavirus approval ratings and polling in swing states, he does not believe the president’s “fate is sealed.”

“We found historically that when there are lots of major news events and economic disruptions, an election becomes harder to predict,” Silver said.

“So while he’s clearly in trouble, I do not buy that Trump’s fate is sealed. A lot could change in the next 100 days — things could get worse, still, for the president. But a turnaround in the COVID situation by the fall could make the election more competitive”

The good reasons to be cautious about what will happen in November involve (i) coronavirus and all the other news and (ii) the longer-term history of polling 100 days out not being all that accurate.

The bad reasons involve that Trump won as a mere 2:1 or 3:1 underdog in 2016.

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) July 26, 2020

.@NateSilver538 says “I do not buy that Trump’s fate is sealed” from COVID.

“A lot could change in the next 100 days. Things could get worse for the president. But a turnaround in the COVID situation in the fall could make the election more competitive.” https://t.co/CEC06V3sml pic.twitter.com/E7m1oQUUEO

— This Week (@ThisWeekABC) July 26, 2020