From the nonpartisan Cook Political Report:
For Republicans, the 2018 House playing field is a lot like a game of Whack-a-Mole: everywhere they turn, new problems keep popping up in surprising places. In January, we rated 20 GOP-held seats as Toss Ups or worse, including three leaning towards Democrats. With today’s changes, we now rate 37 GOP-held seats as Toss Ups or worse, including ten leaning towards Democrats.
Republicans are relieved that state Sen. Troy Balderson appears to have eked out a win in Ohio’s 12th CD special election last week. But a new round of polls shows several more GOP incumbents, including Reps. Mimi Walters (CA-45) and Tom MacArthur (NJ-03) highly vulnerable. Their seats, along with Rep. Robert Pittenger’s open NC-09, move from Lean Republican to the Toss Up column.
On the bright side for Republicans, a handful of their battle-tested incumbents appear to be defying the “blue wave” in Democratic-leaning seats. Recent campaign polling shows Reps. David Valadao (CA-21), Carlos Curbelo (FL-26), John Katko (NY-24) and Will Hurd (TX-23) with impressive initial leads in districts Hillary Clinton carried. This week, Curbelo moves from Toss Up to Lean Republican.
The GOP primary for Pittenger’s seat was won by Pastor Mark Harris, the raging anti-LGBT activist seen regularly here on JMG during North Carolina’s HB2 “bathroom bill” frenzy. The Dem nominee for that seat is USMC veteran Dan McCready.
This weekend marks 100 days out from Election Day! We need all hands on deck to knock on doors and make phone calls this weekend. Click the link to sign up! https://t.co/EiQOKMDRkh pic.twitter.com/tqmjmfy8xg
— Dan McCready for NC (@McCreadyForNC) July 27, 2018