OHIO: Hillary +9 In New Post-Debate Poll

The Cleveland Plain Dealer reports:

Democrat Hillary Clinton has a 9-point lead over Republican Donald Trump in Ohio following the news of Trump’s vulgar talk about women and after the second debate between the candidates, according to a statewide poll released today by Baldwin Wallace University in Berea.

Clinton leads Trump, 48 percent to 38 percent, with 14 percent unsure, in a direct match-up, the poll found. When the two minority party candidates are added to the mix – as they are on state ballots — Clinton leads by 9 percent, 43 percent to 34 percent.

The Baldwin Wallace Community Research Institute poll began at 11 p.m. Sunday, less than a half hour after the second debate concluded, and ended at 7 p.m. Tuesday. It surveyed 1,152 likely voters across the state, with quotas to make sure that the survey sample matched up with the state’s age and gender breakdowns. The margin of error is plus or minus 3 percent.

Recent polls, which involved much smaller samples and higher margins of error, mostly showed the race to be closer, with most showing Trump slightly ahead but the most recent showing Clinton in the lead. Those polls were conducted before news broke about a video in which Trump described groping women and kissing them without permission.

Below is this morning’s “nowcast” from Nate Silver.90nowcast