It’s Been 16 Elections Since The Candidate Trailing After The Conventions Went On To Win The Popular Vote

Some historical perspective via Politico:

No candidate in Donald Trump’s position at this stage of the campaign has gone on to win the popular vote in November in the modern polling era. That’s the sobering news confronting the Trump campaign as it seeks to rebound from his recent slump.

Those who have studied presidential campaigns since 1952 — the advent of modern polling and TV — aren’t writing off Trump yet. But they say that time is running short for Trump to reverse the trajectory of the race before voters’ preferences become locked in.

There are only a handful of opportunities left for Trump to impact the race, including the three general-election debates, in which Trump has indicated he intends to participate, though he wants to negotiate some of the details. But some pollsters caution that there is a significant risk that, even by the first debate in late September, the race will be locked in against Trump, who would be on an inexorable path to defeat regardless of how he performs.

The above-linked story goes on at great length but doesn’t mention the 2000 election, when Al Gore narrowly won the popular vote but lost via the Electoral College. But Gore was leading in most polls at this stage.