According to a Gallup poll released yesterday, nearly one million Americans are now in same-sex marriages, a 22% increase since Obergefell. They write:
Gallup currently estimates 3.9% of U.S. adults are lesbian, gay, bisexual or transgender, and 0.4% of U.S. adults are married to a same-sex spouse. These figures can be used to estimate there are approximately 981,000 U.S. adults in a same-sex marriage and, thus, 491,000 same-sex marriages in the U.S. That latter estimate is up from roughly 368,000 a year ago.
Gallup’s data indicate a clear increase in same-sex marriages in the U.S. since the Supreme Court granted those unions legal status nationwide. Now, roughly half of all cohabiting same-sex couples are married, up from 38% a year ago. Gallup estimates that approximately 123,000 same-sex marriages have taken place since the Obergefell v. Hodges decision, with increases apparent among those living in states where same-sex marriage was already legal as well as those where it was not.
More recent data collected since Gallup’s initial update on same-sex marriages in November show the growth in same-sex marriages may be leveling off. The Obergefell v. Hodges ruling appears to have provided the impetus for an initial surge in same-sex marriages, but that surge only lasted a short while. Going forward, as the nation moves further away in time from that June 2015 decision, increases in the same-sex marriage rate may be more evident in the long term rather than in the short term.
This is especially likely given that the U.S. LGBT population is decidedly young, and many who one day want to marry a same-sex spouse are not currently at a point in their lives when they are likely to seriously consider marriage.