Reuters reports:
Donald Trump’s support has surged and he is now running nearly even with Democrat Hillary Clinton among likely U.S. voters, a dramatic turnaround since he became the Republican party’s presumptive presidential nominee, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Wednesday.
The results could signal a close fight between the two likely White House rivals as Americans make up their minds ahead of the Nov. 8 election to succeed Democratic President Barack Obama. As recently as last week, Clinton led Trump by around 13 points in the poll.
In the most recent survey, 41 percent of likely voters supported Clinton, the Democratic front-runner, and 40 percent backed Trump, with 19 percent not decided on either yet, according to the online poll of 1,289 people conducted from Friday to Tuesday. The poll had a credibility interval of about 3 percentage points.
The candidates’ choice of running mates could also be important. Voters surveyed in the poll said they would be more likely to support Clinton if her choice for vice president was a liberal, while Trump would help his chances if he picked someone experienced in politics and someone who is “consistently” conservative.
1. For fuck's sake, America. You're going to make go on a rant about general election polls — in May?
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) May 10, 2016
2. The data is consistent with Clinton having a ~6% nat'l lead over Trump. It's early. Trump could win. Also, he could lose in a landslide.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) May 10, 2016
3. State polls are broadly consistent with that ~6% Clinton lead + noise + house effects. Not nearly enough data to say more than that.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) May 10, 2016
5. Watch whether polls are likely or registered voters. Usually GOP gains a point or two with likelies. Possible Trump will be an exception.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) May 10, 2016
6. The election will go through a lot of twists and turns, and polls are noisy. Don't sweat individual polls or short-term fluctuations.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) May 10, 2016
7. Looking at Electoral College is great once you have rich data — multiple recent polls of each state. We won't have that for a few months.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) May 10, 2016