Tag Archives: Nate Silver

Nate Silver: Donald Trump’s Base Is Eroding

Nate Silver writes at FiveThirtyEight: A widely held tenet of the current conventional wisdom is that while President Trump might not be popular overall, he has a high floor on his support. Trump’s sizable and enthusiastic base — perhaps 35 to 40 percent of the country — won’t abandon him any time soon, the theory goes, and they don’t necessarily ...

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Nate Silver Debunks Conway’s “Landslide” Claim

Such a silly, yet typical lie: Nate Silver, pollster and editor-in-chief of FiveThirtyEight, fact-checked Kellyanne Conway’s claim Monday that Donald Trump won the presidency in a historic landslide. Lined up alongside the last 10 elections, Silver noted that Trump’s win was, “actually way below average for a winner’s total,” coming in with only more votes than President George W. Bush. ...

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Nate Silver: Hillary Is Probably Going To Win But She’s One State Away From Losing Electoral College [VIDEO]

The Hill reports: Hillary Clinton is one state away from losing the presidential election, FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver said Sunday. While the Democratic presidential nominee has a 65.7 percent chance of winning the presidency on Tuesday, she is not “in a terribly safe position,” the pollster said on ABC’s “This Week.” “The electoral map is actually less solid for Clinton than ...

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Nate Silver: There Are Clearer Signs Of A Tighter Race

This morning Nate Silver noted that there are “clearer signs” that the presidential race is tightening. Here’s what he wrote yesterday before today’s slight change to his predictive map: Pretty much everyone has an incentive to push the narrative that the presidential race is tightening. The television networks would like for you to keep tuning in to their horse-race coverage. ...

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Nate Silver: Trump Would Win If Vote Were Today, But Hillary Is Still Favored To Win In November

The Hill reports: Statistician Nate Silver on Monday said Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump would be favored to win if the general election occurred today. Trump now leads presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton, 57.5 percent to 42.5 percent, in that scenario, according to Silver’s website, FiveThirtyEight. FiveThirtyEight has Clinton besting Trump this November in two other prediction samples, however. ...

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Nate Silver Gives Hillary 79% Chance Of Winning

ABC News reports: This morning on ABC’s “Good Morning America,” FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver predicted that Hillary Clinton will win the general election against Donald Trump. Clinton has a 79 percent chance of winning the election, compared to Trump’s 20 percent, according to FiveThirtyEight’s forecast. “We’re at halftime of the election right now,” Silver said. “She’s taking a seven-point, maybe a ...

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Reuters Poll: Clinton & Trump Tied Nationwide

Reuters reports: Donald Trump’s support has surged and he is now running nearly even with Democrat Hillary Clinton among likely U.S. voters, a dramatic turnaround since he became the Republican party’s presumptive presidential nominee, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Wednesday. The results could signal a close fight between the two likely White House rivals as Americans make up ...

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Nate Silver: Cruz And Clinton Will Win Iowa

Via Politico: Hillary Clinton and Ted Cruz have the greatest chances of winning the Iowa caucuses two weeks from Monday, new polling-based forecasts from FiveThirtyEight show. Cruz has a 51 percent chance of winning Iowa when national and state polls as well as endorsements are taken into account. In that forecast, Donald Trump trails Cruz with a 29 percent chance ...

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Nate Silver: Hillary Has A 50/50 Shot

Statistics guru Nate Silver says that while Hillary Clinton will doubtlessly be the Democratic nominee, at present he gives her a 50/50 shot at becoming president. In a piece published yesterday on his FiveThirtyEight site, Silver lays out his case: Start with the fact that there’s no incumbent president running. There actually haven’t been a lot of cases that precisely ...

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HomoQuotable – Nate Silver

“On Friday, I posed the question of whether the polls would have to be systematically wrong for Democrats to hold the Senate. Technically speaking, we’re not quite there yet. If Democrats win Georgia and Alaska and North Carolina, and [independent] Orman wins Kansas and caucuses with them, they’d hold the Senate even if Republicans flipped Iowa, Colorado and the five ...

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Tweet Of The Day – Nate Silver

(Tipped by JMG reader Shawn)

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Nate Silver Compiles Prop 8 Donations By Staffers At Major Silicon Valley Companies

Using a Los Angeles Times database of donations to the 2008 Proposition 8 campaign, stats guru Nate Silver has compiled a list of how the staffers of major Silicon Valley tech companies weighed in with their wallets. The list includes Hewlett-Packard, Intel, Cisco Systems, Apple, Google, Sun Microsystems, eBay, Oracle, Yahoo, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and Symantec. I limited the ...

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Nate Silver Predicts: GOP Has 60% Chance Of Winning Back The Senate In 2014

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Out’s 100 Most Eligible Bachelors

Out Magazine has published its annual 100 Most Eligible Bachelors list and while bear icon/PA state Rep. Brian Sims is on the list…so is Ken Mehlman.  Also featured: Jason Collins, Mo Rocca, Nate Silver, and Ricky Martin. UPDATE: Out is asking readers to vote on their favorites. Sims is currently in second place behind Adam Lambert.

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Tweet Of The Day – Nate Silver

Sullivan: “I guess I can die now.”

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ESPN Buys Nate Silver’s Blog

Nate Silver, the gay man who saved the sanity of millions of progressives during the 2012 election, is moving to ESPN. ESPN bought the FiveThirtyEight site and name outright, which differs from the New York Times’ current licensing deal, Silver said. Skipper described ESPN’s partnership with Silver as a “long-term, multi-year” deal; the purchase price was not disclosed. Silver said ...

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Nate Silver’s Marriage Population Charts

Nate Silver writes at the New York Times: By August, there will be about 585 million people living in countries or jurisdictions where same-sex marriage is legal. That is roughly double the 289 million people living in such places in August 2012. Still, that represents only about 8 percent of the global population. No country in Asia, which has well ...

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Nate Silver On Failed Senate Gun Bill

Nate Silver examines last week’s failed gun control bill: Among the 26 incumbent senators who will face elections next year (this definition excludes those senators who have announced their retirements), there was a near perfect relationship between the states’ rates of gun ownership and their votes. Among the 12 senators running for re-election in states where the gun ownership rate ...

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Apple CEO Tim Cook Tops Out’s Power 50

Via press release: Tim Cook, number 1 on this year’s Power 50 list, took charge of tech giant Apple as CEO in 2011 and has guided the company through significant upgrades on all of its product lines and helped the brand increase its market share to 20% of all money spent on U.S. consumer technology. This year marks the first ...

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Nate Silver On Marriage Support Trends

From Nate Silver’s blog: For right now, it is probably best to treat the question of whether a majority of Americans support same-sex marriage as having an ambiguous answer. Polls are on the verge of saying that they do, but the ballot results are more equivocal. By 2016, however, voters in 32 states would be willing to vote in support ...

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