GOP Frets Over Dem Lead In Generic House Ballot

The Hill reports:

Republicans head into the holiday season with a daunting number hanging over their heads — 10.7 percent.

Democrats lead their Republican rivals by 10.7 percent on the generic congressional ballot, according to the most recent RealClearPolitics average of available polling data. That mark is the highest that average has gone since just before the 2010 elections, where Republicans netted 63 House seats.

It’s a gloomy sign for Republicans, and one that dovetails with President Trump’s sagging approval rating to boost Democratic optimism about taking the House and raises questions about whether Republicans will be able to take advantage of Democratic weakness on the Senate map.

“It’s always stupid to make firm predictions in anything, whether it be politics or the Super Bowl. But it seems clear we are heading in a bad direction” said former Republican National Committee spokesman Doug Heye.

  • Tawreos

    I am not sure they have anything to worry about. Congress has been less popular than some diseases for a long time and they still get sent back there over and over again. One thing that can always be relied on is the ignorance and laziness of the American voter.

    • Michael White

      Daily Kos had Indiana 2 a possible flip. Our district is so gerrymandered it is beyond comprehension. So If we can take down Jackie, Palin endorsed, Tea Party cock socket, tRump ass licker, The Whorski there is a lot of hope for the rest of the country.

    • Tom Furgas

      But let’s not forget the dirty tricks and gerrymandering of the GOP. They play to the voters worst fears using subtle (and not so subtle) xenophobia, homophobia, racism, etc. They lie through their teeth incessantly, to the point where many voters begin to believe them. The GOP is ruthless and merciless, driven by the cash flow from sociopathic billionaires. They fight dirty and it’s high time the Dems start doing that too. Steamroller the bastards.

    • Yes, but Congress has been unpopular for decades. And yet incumbents almost always get re-elected. People hate Congress but keep sending their own representative back. I don’t get it either.

      • The_Wretched

        It’s not a fair and free system.

      • Craig Howell

        “Well, OUR Congressman is not like all those other jerks in Washington!”

  • Bambino

    Maybe it’s why the Dems are being so quiet trying not to upset the trend and let the Repugs continue to stomp on their own feet.

    • AlternativeQuacks

      Nancy’s got her eyes on the prize and she clearly thinks that the Dems can retake the House. That’s why she’s not going to talk about impeachment until after the election.

      • There should be minimal impeachment talk from Dems in Congress until the investigations are over. Pelosi is right about this. Citizens can call for it all we want, but she and the rest of the leadership should wait until we know what specific charges can be proved.

    • Dazzer

      In the words of Napoleon: “Never interrupt your enemy when he’s making a mistake.”

    • The_Wretched

      I’m still far from convinced that sitting on their hands and going “we’re not him” is a good strategy.

      • Bambino

        I don’t pretend to understand the political maneuvering behind the scene at that scale. Whether it’s for personal gain, party gain or for the good of the country. I believe it’s far more complicated than just a rigid dichotomy of the good and bad strategy.

        • The_Wretched

          “good” in this case is getting a majority of dems elected.

  • Kruhn

    The GOP will counter this lead by making sure only the right people vote by raising the chimera of voter fraud and passing strict Z Voter ID laws and reducing access to polls, so that Democratic leaning voters can’t vote.

    • billbear1961

      Then, there should be massive and relentless protests to SECURE the RIGHT to vote!

      They should be going on, anyway, to DEMAND the Defiler’s TAX RETURNS (and other financial records), SECURE elections, and moderates ONLY appointed to the courts (no right-wing fanatics).

      • canoebum

        As in any criminal case, the voter should be presumed to have the right to vote, if properly registered. The burden of proof that any individual lacks the right to vote should be on the state.

        • billbear1961

          Well said, CB, but we are dealing, in the U.S., with increasingly CRIMINAL governments (in many areas of the country, at ALL levels).

          • canoebum

            True, but there ar still a lot of good people who want to see our democratic system of governance continue. Many of them will, through the smallest of acts of decency, fight to preserve our freedoms. The demagogues come and go; it just happens that in our current circumstances, one made it all the way to the White House. Nonetheless, eventually, the pendulum will swing back and we’ll see a resurgence of good civic norms of which we can be proud.

    • vtdave

      Instead of whining endlessly about voter suppression, the Dems should be putting money into helping get folks the right documents and securing their registrations. It will take decades to beat back ID laws, but thousands of angry and now legal votes could make a difference.

      • marshlc

        Yes, this seems to me to be an easy and relatively cheap way to work against voter ID laws. And it’s something that can be done now – there’s no need to wait until closer to the election.

      • Agreed. Yes, it’s awful but it is possible for people to get those documents, just difficult. Do they need someone to give them a ride to the next county where they can get them? (In Alabama they closed the rural DMV offices in majority African American areas.) Do they need a ride to the polls? We can do this if we really want to.

      • Friday

        They could stop diqualifying non-driving and student IDs while accepting NRA memberships as ‘ID,’ for a start.

      • The_Wretched


  • AlternativeQuacks

    You know what will help that Dem lead next year? Roy Fucking Moore.
    You know what else will help that Dem lead next year? Donald Fucking Trump.

    • netxtown

      Finally! Something to give a couple fucks about….

    • I think that’s a reason Republicans in Congress are freaking out (and there have been stories about them freaking out behind closed doors all year). Roy Moore winning is the worst case scenario for them. If he loses they can say “well we rejected him because….” And besides if he loses no one will be talking about him next year. But if he wins he’s an albatross around all their necks.

    • The_Wretched

      I’d rather it were something about jobs.

      • Longpole

        I agree.
        Cheeto is a lame duck president even with a gop house and Senate because of the distractions. And with the Dems waking up and pushing back on the gop reps for their districts.

  • Capritaur

    Let’s hope Dems don’t disintegrate into ideology purity test and circular firing squad and snatch defeat from the jaws of victory again.

    • Leo

      Perriello helped Northam. If only we’d be so lucky nationwide.

      • Blake J Butler

        Perriello helped, Bernie and his revolution didn’t lift a finger to help.

  • Leo

    No, no, NO. The prognosticating is NOT HELPING until gerrymandering is solved long-term.

    What worked for the Dems in Virginia was to (almost completely) IGNORE THE POLLS and approaching a scorched earth approach to mailers, ads, but above all, DOOR KNOCKS to TURN OUT DEM CONSTITUENCIES.

    I read a bunch of subsequent articles on the Virginia win. Scorched earth and meet them at their level – no more nice Dems.

    1) Texting to millennials
    2) Scorched earth TV ads specific on Latino stations – blanket mailers making the Confederacy equivalents
    3) Door knocks by African-American constituents by just those groups ONLY by thousands of BLACK ONLY groups
    4) VA Repub. chair said “they swept by hammering and hammering and hammering we were all bunch of racists”. DAMN RIGHT WE DID.

    Light a fucking fire and scare the fuck out of the people that will always vote for you THEN aim for the middle. Point blank and period.

    • skyweaver

      I live in Virginia and you are absolutely right. I got 4 separate knocks on my door from Dem volunteers, and where I work (at a county facility) the Dem volunteers handing out sample ballots outnumbered the Republicans (if a Republican even showed up) by a factor of 3/4 to 1 on a given day. These people were on fire.

      • Leo

        Over ~20(!!!) grassroots groups alone swept the state, including ~4(!!!) JUST targeting African-American voters in Richmond and ~3 from reproductive rights groups JUST targeting single women statewide. They were at EVERY voter precinct on election day.

        Nothing was left to chance and everyone went HAM. That’s what I’m fucking talking about.

        • skyweaver

          Well it was quite an effort. I knew it from the earliest returns. Districts that used to be a lock were indicating enough of a sea change I knew when NoVa came in we were going to do it. It was a proud night to be a Dem.

          • Leo

            Gillespie aimed for the Corey Stewart voters and there’s just not enough of them left in the state anymore based on the demographic changes in the state since 2009. Trumpism without Trump failed spectacularly.

            Any hypothetical as to whether Perriello would have lost aren’t worth it at this point as Bernie’s group got a lot of his candidates as delegates. Unity’s nice.

          • skyweaver

            Unity with action is even better! I’m proud of what the party accomplished, it was really thrilling.

          • stuckinthewoods

            Danica Roem writes that in her race she talked about roads, schools, and healthcare while the Republicans ran on fear, labels, and social issues that the voters didn’t actually care about.

    • Gerrymandering can only be solved at the state level. (We do not have a SCOTUS likely to fix it.) That means winning in midterms. Will Democrats figure that out? When we show up like in 2006 we win.

      Also, African American women seemed to be a key demographic in Virginia this year. That Virginia model can easily be repeated. Forgive me for telling this story again but earlier this month the Democrat running for the House next year knocked on my door. I was going to vote for him anyway, but there he was ready to talk and answer any questions. That’s how to win. Democrats keep thinking we can win local elections nationally. It keeps not working. The model is easy and clear. Door to door.

    • Tom Furgas

      First order of business when the Dems regain control is to wipe out all forms of gerrymandering, period. Level the playing field. But I can’t see Trump signing that into law, so we may have to wait until the next president.

    • JeauxFan

      You are absolutely correct. I’ve been staying here in NOVA (temporary hurricane refugee from PR), so I had the opportunity to experience both the later part of the election as well as Virginians’ reactions to Trump’s “handling” of hurricane Maria. Many new acquaintances I made here came right out expressing utter contempt for that asshole’s blatant racism, disrespect, and downright cruelty toward Puerto Rico (once they learned I was a PR refugee, that is). I’ve never before experienced strangers’ willingness to express such disgust for a president in public. Normally, one is circumspect in these circumstances. I guess my point is it’s not just ONE ISSUE now – pussygate OR Russia OR the tax bill OR the golfing OR the juvenile tweeting OR Maria OR healthcare – it’s the multitude of people touched and outraged by AT LEAST one of these issues. People are PISSED, and the few hard-core Republicans here are very subdued – they’ve probably had their faces taken off a time or two by the fed-up. Add that ripe outrage to folks knocking on doors and we will have a startlingly successful midterm.

    • JCF

      I’m upvote #50. Can I be upvote #5000 please?

      Will take WORK to flip House—and funds!

  • j.martindale

    Mueller is very likely to make several more indictments on the next year. It will probably involve the people closest to tRump. I know you shouldn’t count chickens, but if that happens and the timing is right, I am actually hopeful it will be a very good year for Democrats.

  • pj

    a good direction is away from chump.

  • BeaverTales

    Dump, Ryan and Roy Moore should (in theory) do wonders for getting more 2018 Democrats elected.. Assuming Dems get over their internal feuds long enough to field reasonably good candidates who are sufficiently knowledgeable, articulate and aware about their local economic issues, of course.

    • Joe in PA

      Hey now, Susan Sarandon makes a very compelling case. Ahem.


  • jruffdc

    “It seems we’re headed in a bad direction.” It seems???????

  • Tomcat

    Don’t worry, republicans know vote buying is legal in America now.
    Enough money can buy anything, including a dying country.

  • Tomcat

    Democrats have to unite in the quest to take back congress, for the good of America.

  • Tomcat

    The Crotch brothers will come to the rescue of republicans.

  • Tomcat

    OT: Trump is refusing to put in place the sanctions congress voted in on Russia.
    That is dereliction of duty by him alone. An impeachable offense.

    • Joe in PA

      I was just looking for that yesterday! Crickets from the dems (and MSM) on this. Why aren’t they hammering the media about this. Instead of letting Chuck Toad (thanks @boreal) hit Pelosi with bullshit questions, she should be pivoting to this. You know KellyAnnPollster would be.

      • marshlc

        Politicians make noise about things if they hear from their constituents that they had damned well better make noise. They’ll only push if you push them.

        • Joe in PA

          Done! Well, almost. But thanks. I’ll do all three.

        • The_Wretched

          It wouldn’t hurt the dems to have a spine or an agenda and make some noise on obvious things. Their – only if we must – approach is not a winning one.

          • marshlc

            “The dems” includes everyone who voted for them and who would like to vote for them in the future.

    • canoebum

      The Oath of Office requires that “the laws be faithfully executed”. Trump has failed in this on more than just the Russia sanctions. His actions to undermine the ACA are just as egregious.

      • marshlc

        That’s partisan, though – those who disagree politically would disagree on how egregious his actions are.

        But refusing to act on something passed by congress is another matter entirely.

    • Halou

      At about the same time that vote came through, Trump had Exxonasaurus Rex disband the State Department office responsible for implementing and enforcing sanctions.

      For the sake of protecting Putin’s money Trump has made it so that America cannot impose new sanctions on anyone in the future even if it wanted to, be it Iran, North Korea, or anyone else. And without a dedicated sanctions office it is now that much harder to continue enforcing existing sanctions. Something that has not gone unnoticed in these nations as they continue to misbehave as boldly as ever if not more so. Who is going to stop them?

      Oh, yeah. We could go to war. Sure, like it is the only option available to us and not a last resort, real caveman diplomacy. Putting the lives of American soldiers and civilians overseas at risk because Trump didn’t want to hurt the feelings or financial well being of his best friend.

  • Skeptical_Inquirer

    I do think we will increase our numbers overall. It is a question of how many. They have done a lot of unpopular things. My advice is not to focus on Russia but more on healthcare and the tax plan. People may not understand collusion but they understand things like medical bills and higher taxes.

    That said, if Roy Moore wins, everybody should just start saying Graspy Ole Perverts in earnest to make THAT stick. And the fundajelicals need to feel backlash over this.

    • JeauxFan

      Love rename!!! What do you think of Greedy Ole Perverts? Greasy? Griftin’? Gross? Gassy is fun, too. Hahaha!

    • The way to do this is locally. When you’re talking to college student then the tax plan that eliminates the student loan interest deduction is something to talk about. Etc. One size fits all campaigns don’t work. A broad theme might be helpful but elections are won one voter and one precinct at a time.

  • A lot can happen in a year, but yes, Virginia could be the predictor of 2018. A wave like that nationwide would win back the House even with Gerrymandering. It will take a wave like that in the Senate just to keep Democrats from losing seats though. But the House is winnable.

  • downtownla

    The most exciting thing about VA was the diversity of the winners. Let’s hope this news helps Democratic recruitment with strong progressive candidates who come from diverse backgrounds and experiences. We need diversity to win!

  • danolgb

    As long as we can do it without the Berniecrats. They still haven’t figured it out. A friend posted this article from the Guardian. Sarandon still won’t admit she was wrong. Some of his IRL friends defended her claiming that at least now we’re not using drone attacks anymore. Um.. actually, we are. It’s just the news is now filled with so much else. This is how much they are engrossed in their mythology that some are stupid enough to believe that Dems are worse than Republicans.

    • The_Wretched

      agent shitstir

  • The_Wretched

    ~11% is still within the gerrymander margin (5-15%) and named Dems tend to do worse than a ‘generic dem’ poll. this is very good news but it’s not enough.

  • Halou

    See, GOP. This is what you get when you let foreign tyrants pick your leader. The first time since 1776 that such a horrific thing was done.

    No amount of whinging about the failure of people to salute “our flag” (whichever one that is), no amount of crying ‘ingratitude’ when you see black people kneeling, and no amount of “but her emails” will hold back the righteous infliction of retribution upon you for your own Patriotically Incorrect behaviour.

  • Publius

    Gerrymandering. Gerrymandering. Gerrymandering.

    Gerrymandering makes this not news. Democrats almost always lead in polls and win the popular vote in the House, but usually end up in the minority. Voting matters. Redistricting matters. If Democrats sit out 2020 like they did 2010, then they’ll be fucked for another 10 years at least.

    • Jean-Marc in Canada

      Exactly. They’ve rigged the game so I’m not sure why they’re fretting so much. Add to that that liberals/left wingers are notoriously good at snatching defeat from the jaws of victory with their tribal and simplistic ideological spats. Case in point, 2016. Until reality and the big picture concept is dealt with, the Dems and progressive ideals will flounder.

      HARD FACT: Republicans vote once the candidate is chosen; Democrats fight amongst themselves even after the candidate is chosen…that is why you fail.

  • Will Parkinson

    Hell, no. Get the fuck out and vote.

  • Rich

    Republicans shouldn’t worry, I’m sure the Dems will screw it up somehow.

    • JCF

      One word: gerrymander.

  • Homo Erectus

    And yet, the GOP will continue to disenfranchise the middle class -especially the poor, non-christian, and non-white voters.