Australian Pollster: “Yes” On Marriage Is Winning

The Sydney Morning Herald reports:

Australians appear to be unmoved by anti-same-sex marriage warnings of creeping gender ideology, social destruction, or sexual confusion, with the case for change surging ahead.

With more than a month to go in the government’s controversial postal survey, an aggregation of public polling and some recent unpublished research shows the “yes” case for legalising same-sex marriage has maintained its strong lead among ordinary voters.

Respected pollster John Stirton has crunched the numbers based on published polls and concluded that with a majority of votes already cast, the race appears to be all but decided. “It’s very hard to see how the ‘no’ case could win from here unless an awful lot of people are straight-out lying to pollsters,” he said.

Nearly 60% of eligible voters have already returned their surveys with a month to go before the deadline. Stirton’s summary of recent polls shows that 65% say they voted “yes.” The result will be announced on November 15th.

  • Silver Badger

    It ain’t over ’till it’s over. Bigot’s cheat.

    • Nic Peterson

      They do it in the name of dog.

    • (((GC)))

      (edit) And unlike here, bigots often don’t know how to use apostrophe’s. 🙂

      • Silver Badger

        So where did I screw up?

        • (((GC)))

          I thought I saw “bigot’s cheat”… then again, I’ll often notice a mistake I posted, then use Edit to fix it. (Glad to delete this message after you see it.)

          • Silver Badger

            No problem. I fixed it and thank you for letting me know of my mistake.

  • BearEyes

    it ain’t over till it’s over.

  • Gustav2

    Yes vote unbeatable ‘unless a lot of people are straight out lying’, says pollster

    That happens.

  • bkmn

    The time to celebrate is when the vote is final kids. Don’t dissuade people from voting by ‘promising’ a win ahead of time.

    • bobbleobble

      Well I don’t think this would dissuade one side more than the other from voting. If a no voter thinks they’ve already lost then they will probably wonder what the point is of voting at all.

      Incidentally I’ve seen two polls which say nearly 80% of people have voted already.

      • Tatonka

        I’m sure Hillary told herself the same things.

        • bobbleobble

          I’m struggling to remember any polling which had Clinton 30 points ahead of Trump.

          • fuow

            What matters, in the end, is who does the counting. No, I do not trust christers one bit.

          • bobbleobble

            Well the referendum is being run by the non-partisan Australian Bureau of Statistics.

          • fuow

            Yes, I know – but that means nothing if the counters are mother-fucking christers.

          • bobbleobble

            Oh I see what you mean. No I don’t trust them either. That said, I also don’t know much about the workforce of the ABS or who they’ll get to count the votes!

          • fuow

            We have to remember that christers explicitly believe it’s OK to lie to further their 3in1 god of hatred. I suspect they’ve infiltrated every position they can, including ‘independent’ Bureaus.

          • bobbleobble

            Well you only have to watch a few of the No side’s adverts to see how little lying worries them.

            But there are Christers everywhere in Ireland and they still managed to run a referendum that gave a positive result so there’s still hope.

        • Gerry Fisher

          IMO, I don’t think it was “we have this in the bag” as much as it was “we’ve got the Rust Belt nailed down, so why don’t we target Arizona and other ‘close’ states in the final weeks?” They didn’t have reliable data and weren’t concocting the right strategy down the stretch. (…not counting the fact that Russia was wildly interfering with the process to an extent that we are still figuring out.)

      • Chris Baker

        Ah, you don’t understand the mentality of conservatives. They are the “they are taking away our rights and destroying marriage and society and if gays can marry then dogs can marry lawnmowers and our society is doomed and we will be forced to worship Satan…” type.

        • bobbleobble

          Yes but those types will have voted the second the ballot hit their doormat. I’m talking about people who are inclined to vote No for whatever reason but have no strong drive to do so.

    • Todd20036

      I remember how obvious it was that Trump would lose… until he didn’t.
      SO yeah, I agree

      • Paul

        Hillary won the popular vote, which is what the polls predicted.

        This referendum will be determined by popular vote.

    • abqdan

      Since this is non-binding, I don’t think any celebration will be required.

      • Todd20036

        That’s what really gets me. This whole thing… is for fun.

        • David L. Caster

          That’s a usage of the word fun I’m not familiar with.

        • metrored

          It’s for fun unless gay marriage looses. In that case, it’s for keeps.

      • Gerry Fisher

        More like relief.

    • Chris Baker

      Exactly. There’s also a lot of pressure for people to say they voted “yes” when they voted “no”. (they won’t get asked uncomfortable questions or have to defend their views.)

    • ChrisMorley

      Marriage Equality Plebbyshite

      Authorised by the Australian Department of No Leadership and Unnecessary Harm

    • JCF

      No, the time to celebrate is IF the winning vote is enacted into law!

  • j.martindale

    I think that Ireland gave us a pretty good insight into how this will play out. Australia is not that much different than the other English speaking nations, I wouldn’t think. I have a fairly high confidence level that the polling will show to be correct.

    • Robert Pierce

      Here in the UK, the opposition was very vocal and active along with the state church, yet we triumphed in 2013. An overwhelming majority in both houses voted to pass it. The upper chamber really shone that day where it passed by acclamation, no vote required. The public didn’t buy into the hate and stupidity either. We had the longest public consultation in history before the bill was legislated, again endorsed by the public. Several religious nutters tried to incite a public demonstration in Trafalgar Square during third and final reading of the legislation hoping to mimmick the massive Manif pour Tous demos in France. Guess what, they were only able to summon less than 1,000 people, many of them French residents who opposed SSM Risible.

  • StillALiberal

    Either way the vote is NOT the final word on the matter. The Australian Federal Parliament is under not obligation to follow the result since it is only a glorified opinion poll.

    • bobbleobble

      This is worrying. If there is a No vote then SSM in Australia is pretty much doomed for a while. If there’s a Yes vote though the Australian government can still do absolutely nothing. They have continually moved the goalposts on bringing in SSM and I don’t doubt there will be more machinations to kick this issue down the road.

      But also worrying is what kind of bill they will actually bring in. They haven’t said yet what the content of the bill will be and I can imagine again all kinds of tricks to ensure that the marriage bill introduced will not be up to snuff.

      • Turnbull has been getting grief on this from members of his own party, so there doesn’t seem to be a lot of room to muck around with the legislation — not that that will stop anyone.

  • Gigi

    We all thought “Hillary for president” was a done deal too, and look how that turned out. Australians can’t become complacent. They must push this until the very last second. The “no” side cannot win this!

    • bobbleobble

      But the polls on Clinton -Trump were an awful lot closer. Agree complacency is a bad thing but the two aren’t necessarily comparable.

      • Gigi

        My broader point is: Australians who support same-sex marriage shouldn’t look at this poll and think they’re job is done. It’s not. Sky News, a Rupert Murdoch organization, put out a similar poll suggesting the “Yes” side has a huge lead. Many of my Australian friends were suspicious and said that Murdoch might be trying to fool people into believing it’s in the bag. Let’s face it, we liberals tend to be pretty lazy when it comes to voting. The “Yes” side needs to keep pushing until the last possible second.

        • bobbleobble

          I don’t disagree that complacency is a bad thing but I think trying to fool people in that way is stupid because if people think this is already over then it will demotivate everyone including the No side. I mean what would be the point in voting No if Yes has already won?! And incidentally I haven’t seen any let up from Yes either.

          I also think there is a different attitude in Australia. Voting in elections is compulsory and even though this isn’t a proper election people seem to be treating it as an important duty as well. If 60% + of people have already voted in what is essentially little more than a very expensive opinion poll then people already seem pretty motivated.

    • MichaelJ

      I total agree with your and everyone’s general point about the dangers of complicity.
      But by no means did everyone — whether public figures, journalists or other JMG commenters — think HRC’s election was a done deal, particularly in the last month when the trend in the polls was clearly in Trump’s favor.

  • crewman

    O/T but good Trevor Noah segment, partially dealing with Fox News hypocrisy in refusing to talk about gun control:

  • barrixines

    It ain’t over until that Christian couple from Canberra have gone through with the divorce they promised to get if marriage equality happens. I do hope the lovely Nick and Sarah are arguing over who gets to keep the Hillsong CDs as we speak.×349.ghl3o6.png/1434108882407.jpg

    • Butch

      Are those smiles on their faces? They look like they’re planning to eat whoever is taking the photo.

      • Todd20036

        I’ve seen V aliens with more sincere smiles.

        • Chaz Antonelli

          ROFL! Awesome comment!

      • David L. Caster

        Those are shit eating grins.

      • Gerry Fisher

        My thought exactly

    • justmeeeee

      Well, if they follow through by getting a divorce, they could always continue to live together, but in sin. Xianity don’t say nothin’ bad ’bout livin’ in sin, do it?

      • grada3784

        That was cherry-picked out a while ago.

      • (((GC)))

        They said they’re only opting out of the civil marriage, and are doing nothing to dissolve their religious marriage:

        “You see, after our divorce, we’ll continue to live together, hopefully for another 50 years. And, God willing, we’ll have more children. We’ll also continue to refer to each other as “husband” and “wife” and consider ourselves married by the Church and before God.”

        And they add, “We will still benefit from the same tax and legal provisions of the state’s “de facto” laws.”

        (I don’t know how this ties in with “Render unto Caesar what is Caesar’s”…)

        The Jensens’ June 2015 op-ed in CityNews, where they announced their decision to divorce if Australia recognizes equal marriage:
        Gay law change may force us to divorce

        • Danieruw

          So basically they’re doing nothing, living life as they always would, EXCEPT they’re trying to be martyrs at the same time. Sounds like they’re trying to ca$h in!

          • (((GC)))

            They may honestly be standing for their principles, as misguided as they are. “If the government dishonors the true meaning of marriage [by expanding it to other committed couples whom our religion doesn’t recognize], we want no part of their institution.”

            It’s the flip side, in a way, of female-male couples who postponed their civil marriages until same-sex marriage was recognized in their jurisdiction.

  • andrew

    Hopefully the ordinary people of Australia will do what the ordinary people of Ireland did and move toward equal justice for all their fellow citizens.

  • The New Paige Turner™

    This is great news HOWEVER this is not a legally binding…anything. Its a no biding postal survey.

    The Federal marriage act of 1961 has to be amended in Parliament and there are politicians who will not support a “yes” vote.

    We are far from “done” with this.

    • bobbleobble

      It’s interesting that they managed to amend it in 2004 to specifically exclude gay couples without needing to consult the people but somehow changing it back only 13 years later required a referendum.

      • Tawreos

        Hate works in mysterious ways.

        • John30013

          “Hate works in unmysterious ways.”


      • The New Paige Turner™

        The Liberal (Conservatives/Republicans) had control of both houses then. It just went through unchallenged.

        • bobbleobble

          Yes I know but they are making a massive stink this time about how changing the marriage act needs approval by the people but apparently that’s only when it is to favour gay people because Howard’s government would never have dreamed of asking the people back in 2004. Hypocrisy.

          • My guess is, from various reports, that Turnbull is fighting to keep his leadership position and needs the support of the Liberal right wing. However, his party is already losing support as of the last election, so, as far as his government is concerned, this particular dog and pony show may very well be for naught.

          • bobbleobble

            Well that’s the only reason this opinion poll went ahead. Turnbull was against it when he was a cabinet minister but shady deals with extreme right-wingers meant he had no choice but to support it once he became PM. That’s why out of all the broken manifesto promises from 2016 this is the one he has no choice but to keep.

    • barrixines

      I would imagine any marriage bill put forward by this lot will be so laden with religious exemptions that it will actually leave LGBT people open to even more legal discrimination than is permissible now.

  • Treant

    Always give a house effect of +7 to the bigots. That’s just wise and bore itself out nicely several times.

    It’s shrinking in the US, but I still use the full +7 in most other countries until proven otherwise.

  • margaretpoa

    Thanks. We could all use some good news

  • Bluto

    Bigots often don’t think they’re bigots or at least don’t want to appear bigoted so yes, a lot of them are lying.

    • Reality.Bites

      This is true, but all reliable elements indicate that the US leads the western democracies in homophobia and religious fundamentalism and we haven’t lost a similar vote in almost a decade.

      There will certainly be some lying, and I expect the percentage may end up more like 55%.

      Which Australians will delight in pointing out is not only a majority, but way more than the 42% who voted for the Liberal/National coalition.

  • GeneInSJ

    This is a good sign but until the final vote count is in, I wouldn’t celebrate. We’ve been burned by that one…

  • barrixines

    This is off topic but it’s about spiders and you can’t really think of Oz without thinking about spiders.

    About this time of year in the UK because of the weather spiders start making their way indoors. Every year without fail the British press run a serious of sensationalist stories about the upcoming “spider invasion”. Result all over Britain millions of spiders are being splatted. I am not the biggest lover of critters but I won’t kill anything aside from cockroaches and mosquitoes (and even then I feel guilty).

    I know it’s not important in the big scheme of things but it really ticks me off.

    Example of standard story – Get ready for 150 million spiders creeping into our houses for mating season

    • Reality.Bites
      • barrixines

        I’ve been to Australia and, I have to say, waking up to find a huntsman spider on the pillow next to you can momentarily distract you from even the perkiest of titties.

    • I’m with you — basically, I don’t kill anything unless it bites me first (the exception being cockroaches).

      I once had an apartment in which my bathroom contained a large, two-man shower, which I shared with a spider. He stayed on his side, I stayed on mine, and we got along fine.

  • bambinoitaliano

    Those who seek to be the leaders of Australia ought to be voted out in the next election by wasting the tax payers money on this. If they do not possess an iota of back bones to make a stand on a basic human right issue, they have no business to be employed by the citizens of Australia. Cowards have no business in any organization let alone a government.

  • j.martindale

    I believe we may possibly have a misconception about the political motives of the Conservatives in offering this referendum. They know the issue is a hot button issue, and if these polls are correct, as I believe they probably are, they know they are on the losing side of the issue. If they had voted on this before a public referendum, and kept their promises to the crackpot religious right by voting against SSM, they would likely have incensed a lot of younger voters. By putting it up to a referendum, they can now say, “It is the will of the majority,” support SSM, and lay the blame for their loss on public opinion.

    • bobbleobble

      I’m not sure the Australian Christian Lobby will care about public opinion or the results of the referendum all that much. They will still expects their pet MPs to vote against and I suspect a large number of them will.

      • Strepsi

        I agree – Australia is the only place I’ve visited with as nutty a Christianist fringe as the U.S. We in Canada even exported our own pet bigot, Margaret Somerville, an Ethicist (but really Catholicist) who got a lot of column inches here with the nonsense that children have a “right” to a mum and dad. She’s currently mostly focussed on being on the wrong side of the assisted dying laws in Australia now. Sorry.

        • Reality.Bites

          Did she take her little gay quisling with her (Paul Nathanson)?

  • edrex

    60% is not good enough. i for one won’t be satisfied until we have complete homosexual domination over australia.

    • Reality.Bites

      Would you settle for Atlanta? I’ve been told there are no tops at all there.

      * admittedly by a friend would can’t find any bottoms or vers to sleep with him either.

    • andrew

      Homosexuals don’t want “domination over Australia.” Like all good people, they want equal justice for all.

    • andrew

      Why do you hide all of your previous posts? Rightfully ashamed of them?

      • edrex

        if everyone can read my previous posts, then my plan for world homosexual domination loses the element of surprise. and anyhow, i save the rightfully shameful stuff for snapchat.

    • Oh please! Do you expect your average Australian Housewife to have to to redo her wardrobe?

      • edrex

        baby steps.

  • The Milkman

    Glad to hear that, but marriage equality is a civil and human right that shouldn’t be subject to popular vote.

  • Acronym Jim

    OT: And I thought street preachers were doing the good Lord’s work by merely annoying the hell out of people.

  • Chris

    And Hillary was a lock. Nothing’s over.

    • Bad Tom

      It wasn’t the polling that was at fault.

    • joe ho

      She was going to win the popular vote by about 3%. Which she did.

      538 gave her a 70% chance of winning the EC. 50% is a coin toss.

      Statistical illiteracy is a sad thing.

    • bobbleobble

      Well in this case it very well may be because such large numbers of Aussies have already voted. Joe mentions 60% and I’ve seen two polls which suggest nearly 80% have already voted. I’m not saying that means a win or a loss either way, just that there may not be much more that can be done about what the result turns out to be.

      It’s also not like with Clinton where events leading up to the poll such as Comey’s revelations can swing things at the last minute.

  • Chaz Antonelli

    Wasn’t Hillary going to win by a landslide according to polls? Let’s not jinx this!

    • Bad Tom

      You think Russia is fucking with the Australian marriage poll too?

      • Chaz Antonelli

        ROFL! Well, they’re quite anti-gay — so who knows! 😉 I think the American hate groups (*ahem*) “religious conservatives” are the ones that are interfering most at this time, but who knows!

        • Well, several of them have strong ties to Russia.

    • joe ho

      No. She was going to win the popular vote by about 3%. Which she did.

      538 gave her a 70% chance of winning the EC. 50% is a coin toss.

      Statistical illiteracy is a sad thing.

      • Yes. And when Nate Silver said Trump had a 30% chance of winning in opposition to other claims that Hillary’s victory was a foregone conclusion people were biting his head off. Nate Silver also correctly predicted that a “crowd effect” (not in those words) – states voting in a trend pattern that was unanticipated – resulting in an election upset — is exactly what happened when rust belt voters from Pennsylvania – Wisconsin elected Trump as President. Michael Moore also predicted this in non-numerical terms.

  • Ninja0980

    I won’t feel better until all the votes are in.
    But that’s just me.

  • JWC

    Just get on with it

  • Hue-Man

    O/T This week in holy crimes.

    The pastor of a Surrey [B.C.] church and his wife are facing more than two dozen charges of sexual assault.

    • ChrisMorley

      On Friday 6th, Cardinal Pell, the Pope’s Treasurer, goes on trial in Melbourne, Australia, facing multiple charges of child abuse and its cover-up.
      He’s not been sacked, but has simply been given time off work for his trial.

  • Jean-Marc in Canada

    Once again, the headline is “we’re winning” when the voting isn’t finished….where have I seen this before?

    Complacency, I’ve warned of it many times…apparently, it’s not being heeded.

    • bobbleobble

      From what I understand he isn’t on either side, he’s just crunching numbers. And bear in mind that hundreds of thousands if not millions of ballots have already been cast. What this guy is saying has absolutely nothing to do with the YES camp.

      • Jean-Marc in Canada

        All I’m saying is, if the 2016 election has taught anyone anything, it’s don’t believe too quickly in positive polling. It’s cliche but true, the only poll that counts is the one on election day. While I believe the polling is on point, I’ll only celebrate when the results are in.

      • JAKvirginia

        Um… why are numbers being crunched when voting can continue? “Summary of recent polls” is not authoritative. (Crikey, polls on polls?)
        This was a stupid idea from the get go. Let’s refrain from making it more stupid with more effing polls.

    • NZArtist

      Normal people: “Oh, we’re already winning? Doesn’t need my vote then.”
      Religious whackos: “Oh My Fucking God everybody go and vote against it NOW! Go! Go! GO!”

      • Jean-Marc in Canada

        Yup…and that’s why the left/liberals fail.

        Like it or not, the one thing conservatives do better than liberals/left et al, is that they actually DO SOMETHING other than just protest, they VOTE. That’s not to say protests don’t have their place but if you don’t follow up with voting for the best possible choice or not voting at all…well, the result of such an attitude is readily available for all to see.

  • grada3784

    “It’s very hard to see how the ‘no’ case could win from here unless an
    awful lot of people are straight-out lying to pollsters,” he said.

    It has happened before.

  • Myles

    You do realize that the result will be ignored if it is favourable. Illegal voters swung the result.

  • teedofftaxpayer

    Hopefully it’s true and not a Hillary/Trump situation. They shouldn’t be voting on basic rights anyway. And of course the right wing dipshits have to put their two cents in.

  • SDG

    Yay… I always wanted an Australian husband!