The Hill reports:
Democrats are feeling encouraged about their prospects of winning back the House next year despite a string of special election losses. A turbulent White House has left President Trump’s approval rating at a dismal 40 percent, and Democrats ended the House session watching the ObamaCare repeal effort collapse in the Senate.
“There are a lot of reasons to think that the House will be in play next year,” said Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, an election handicapper at the University of Virginia. Kondik said the single best gauge for predicting 2018 results may be the House generic ballot, which has the Democrats up between 6 and 14 points, according to recent surveys from various outlets.
Midterm elections for first-term presidents are historically ruinous for the party that controls the White House. By Sabato’s analysis, the president’s party has shed House seats in 36 of 39 midterms stretching back more than 150 years, with an average loss of 33 seats — well above the 24 pickups the Democrats need to take the chamber next year.