New Climate Study Warns Of Unstoppable Tipping Point

The Independent reports:

The world will almost certainly reach a tipping point and bring about unstoppable, destructive climate change, according to a new study. There is a 90 per cent chance that the world’s temperature will rise 2C, to 4.9C above pre-industrial levels by the end of the century, despite measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

It’s at that point that scientists think the world will fall into disastrous effects like widespread drought, extreme weather and dangerous increases in sea level. Experts have suggested that 2C of warming is the “tipping point” at which that change becomes unstoppable.

The scientists looked at 50 years of data on world population and economic activity to come up with their forecast. One factor taken into account was “carbon intensity”, the amount of carbon emitted for each dollar of economic activity. The approach is different from that taken by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), whose most recent report included future warming rates based on four carbon emission scenarios.

CNN reports:

By the end of the century, the global temperature is likely to rise more than 2 degrees Celsius, or 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit. This rise in temperature is the ominous conclusion reached by two different studies using entirely different methods published in the journal Nature Climate Change on Monday.

One study used statistical analysis to show that there is a 95% chance that Earth will warm more than 2 degrees at century’s end, and a 1% chance that it’s below 1.5 C.

“The likely range of global temperature increase is 2.0-4.9 [degrees Celsius] and our median forecast is 3.2 C,” said Adrian Raftery, author of the first study. “Our model is based on data which already show the effect of existing emission mitigation policies. Achieving the goal of less than 1.5 C warming will require carbon intensity to decline much faster than in the recent past.”

  • sequel

    at least the cockroaches will survive to leave a trace that earth had once been a place with life

    • Treant

      Far more than that. The planet regularly flips between icehouse and hothouse states. Life manages.

      A hopped-up species of clever apes…perhaps not. But the grand sweep of life, yes.

      • Tomcat

        That does not make it up to us to speed up that process.

        • Treant

          I never said it did. But it’s not like it doesn’t happen on its own.

      • pluky

        keep in mind it took 10M years for life to recover from the Permian mass extinction event.

  • bkmn

    The planet’s coping mechanisms are about used up, along with the polar ice caps. The oceans can not hold any more CO2. And the Moron-in-Chief thinks all is well.

    • Randy503

      Nothing a good prayer session can’t solve.

      • TampaDink

        Prayers…and a few more rounds of golf.

      • BudClark

        A LONG, DEEP Southern Baptist BAPTISM, perhaps??!!

  • Tatonka

    We’re all rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic.

  • paganguy

    Sadly, the human race has done little but prove it couldn’t happen to a nicer species. 🙁

    • Tomcat

      Actually most countries are trying very hard.

    • vorpal 😼

      Humans: simultaneously too smart and not quite smart enough.

      • Xiao Ai: The Social Gadfly

        Schrödinger’s species?

        • vorpal 😼

          Heh. You said “dinger.”

          • Treant

            He had me at “röd.”

          • vorpal 😼

            Must be one of those sexy German models.
            I hear they have huge emissions.

          • Treant

            Being a German model, I can absolutely assure you that my emissions are enormous.

          • vorpal 😼

            All this climate change talk is making me hot.

      • safari

        I think those were Hannibal Lecter’s thoughts.

    • pch1013

      It’s just a shame that so many perfectly innocent species will also have to die out as a result of our stupidity.

  • Adam Stevens

    Does anyone else smell toast?

  • Jonathan Smith
    • Todd20036

      Good girl….

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  • Tomcat

    You will never scare republicans talking about anything past 4 years.
    That is as far as they look into the future. One election to the next is their view of the world.

    • That_Looks_Delicious

      They’re only afraid of their next primary.

    • David L. Caster

      That’s an eternity to corporations that appear to only see a couple of quarters into the future.

  • netxtown

    Kinda pisses me off. I say ‘kinda’ cuz I will long be dead by then…..

    • TampaDink

      Being long dead by then is the same excuse that most republicans use in denying that climate change is real.

    • Karl Dubhe

      Thing is, it’s affecting you now.

      There’s a reason so many people are fleeing the newly arid regions of the world. Part of that reason is all the car trips we took 50 years ago… 🙁

  • Jonathan Smith
  • JWC

    Follow tjhe GOP mantra there is NO global warming and we do not accept facts

  • Todd20036

    The real problem is the endgame of climate change: dieback.

    Dieback will affect the unindustrialized countries disproportionately. China, India, Africa, Eastern Europe. That is where most humans will die from starvation, disease, etc.

    In other words, most people affected won’t be white.

    So the republicans just won’t care.,

    • That_Looks_Delicious

      Well, another report this month shows sperm counts in N. America, Europe, Australia and New Zealand have been plummeting to levels where reproduction might not be possible, so who knows how many white people will even be around by then.

      • Todd20036

        None from me personally, TYVM!

  • boatboy_srq

    There’s a part of me that wants Turtle, ZEGS, Inhofe, the Kochs and the rest of the denierist leadership kept alive until then just so this particular catastrophe can be shown to them personally – right before they go before the ICC on charges of crimes against humanity.

  • FAEN

    Jeebus this is so depressing. And preventable.

  • JT

    Earth to warm 2 degrees Celsius by the end of this century, studies say

    Drumpf will be much hotter than that.

  • Randy503

    Well thank goodness our cabinet officials are spending their time in bible study. That’s the surest course for safety for everyone. It’s easy, AND it protects everyone’s profits!

    • Tomcat

      They are designing the new ARK.
      It has to hold 2 of each currency’s of the world and all the gold, silver and diamonds.

      • Tawreos

        Hopefully Ken Ham is building it for them.

        • Tomcat

          It has to actually float so best he not be involved.

          • Tawreos

            That is the perfect reason he should be.

    • Michael R

      God didn’t give them brains for learning , only for some
      odd reason that can never be known .

  • Jacob

    Yeah. We knew this.

  • Joe, my love, you should’ve just posted “it’s over, dood.”

    my standard on posts like these, and hear about the every morning cause Honey is a GCC bad news junkie, is simply “i’m so glad we never had babies.” we may still foster some gay, black, unwanted teens once we get this house in shape, cause hey, why not. but there will be no flesh and blood CDbabies running around this hellhole when all this goes down, and i won’t be sorry.

    i grow a lot of plants, including those which if ingested, will kill quickly and mostly painlessly. flowers are funky like that! killing machines, if you know what to do with them, and totally legal! heh. but don’t even think i won’t take some, if where i live becomes the nightmare scenario of “boiling air, poisoned water, dying food plants that cannot be regrown.”

    i’m not a billionaire. i don’t have an arctic or underground fortress of solitude. “the 100” is the happiest, most positive guess on what is going to happen. i’m a pessimist. it won’t. but i won’t be around to experience it, no matter what. i made up my mind about this when i was 12, and just old enough to read a “journal of science” mag article my parents subscribed to about the destruction of the rainforests and the consequences of that. the seas dying article a friend of mine showed me a few years ago only strengthens my resolve.

    • Christopher

      I’m with you. I refuse to live in a post-apocalyptic world.

      I have absolutely no hope for the future. Humans deserve the fate they brought upon themselves.

  • Christopher

    By the end of the century.


    I say less than 25 years. If even that much time.

    Humans ALWAYS have to learn the big lessons the hard way.

    Every. Fucking. Time.

    • Todd20036

      Wouldn’t be surprised if I live to see it I’ll only be 75. But even if the world outlasts me, I’m doing my best. No car, recycle where I can, don’t eat processed foods, walk a lot.

      • Tomcat

        What healthcare is going to keep you alive that long?

      • Christopher

        We also do as much as we can. One good thing about St. Louis is that you can recycle almost everything.

        I dump the recycle bin three times a week. We compost all the food we can (put the rest in the outside dumpster), and I empty the actual trash bin maybe once a week.

      • John

        Keep at all of that. There will be patches of inhabitable Earth with life sustaining capability. I would add learning farming and animal husbandry to your repertoire.

    • Treant

      Just looking at the shifts in my lifetime, I tend to agree with you. My farmer cousins “don’t believe” in climate change, but whine constantly about how much better their crops used to be forty years ago. The trees and plants survive, but that’s because none of them push the envelope in terms of where they’re being grown. All are in the smack-dab middle of their ranges for 40 years agone, putting them now south-central of optimal today.

      In my case, I’ve had to abandon most of the boreals. I have one small patch of Siberian iris left on the north face in the coldest and most windswept part of the gardens. The northern hollies, gone. Heather, long gone.

      Crepe myrtle? Now coming into range in Pennsylvania; I have a Dynamite that’s done very well indeed over the last eleven years.

      • oh, let’s not talk about invasive species from the south. i lived there just long enough to hate them. and i mean: the bugs. those are coming north too.

      • Ernest Endevor

        I’m seeing similar things in NY about 100 miles north of NYC. We live about a quarter mile from the reservoir that supplies about 40% of the city’s water. The mountain behind us streams water but even so we had a drought last year and my well ran dry for the first time anyone remembers. We don’t have children, I’m glad to say, but am thinking of leaving the place to nephews and nieces. Who knows? Maybe it’ll become a refuge.

        We’re losing all of our ash trees. The maples and hemlocks are on the way out. The pines are next.

        • Treant

          There’s always a lovely grove of New York palms…

        • David in Tucson

          We had the hottest June on record in Arizona. For Tucson, July has gone down as the rainiest on record (but not by much). What I’ve noticed are seemingly little things–the mesquites leafing out just a bit earlier in March, horned lizards becoming rare sights in the city, more wildlife in our suburban neighborhood (coyotes, javelina, ground squirrels, rabbits, hawks), fewer of some species of birds (I never see Inca doves anymore, and the mockingbirds seem to have left our neighborhood), fewer freezing nights in the winter. We’ll see what August and September are like rain-wise.

          • stuckinthewoods

            In my area of Virginia each hour of July 2017 averaged 3° above normal, that’s both day light hours and night. I keep records and for years night temperatures at our place have been exceeding normal by a greater deviation than days have. It no longer cools much at night. Once we were in an island of Zone 6 in Zone 7 but everywhere here has gone up a half zone.

          • Ernest Endevor

            Interesting. Similar things going on here. Plus, ticks are becoming pestilential, bringing with them not just Lyme but a whole smorgasbord of sickness.

            What most saddens me right now is the death of our ash trees. First with a plague and then the Asian Emerald Borer. Dead trees stand in the woods which seem to be falling apart. City dwellers are not seeing this stuff on a day-to-day basis which makes it harder to believe. They’ll only be able to see it when we hit full crisis. However, I bought a brown birch I’m about to plant and I have my eye on some Japanese cherries. Plus, with all the rain this summer (!) the widows of every variety have about doubled in size. So there’s that.

      • stuckinthewoods

        I notice things blooming in spring before their pollinators are active. Orchids that need chilly autumn night temperatures to initiate buds grow well but don’t bloom without their trigger. Things that shouldn’t overwinter here do now. Plants we didn’t worry about becoming invasive because a cold winter would eliminate them now need to be hunted down and killed.

  • TK
  • Do Something Nice

    I’m old enough that I probably won’t experience this ‘end of the century’ stuff.

    But since 1973, I’ve never owned a car that got less than 30mpg. It wasn’t always comfortable, but it was THE RIGHT THING TO DO.

    I try to minimize driving. Because I use public transportation a lot, the vehicle I bought in 2011 only has 24,000 miles. It isn’t always convenient, but it is THE RIGHT THING TO DO.

    In the year 2000, I changed all my light bulbs and many appliances for energy-efficient models, not because I needed to, but because it was THE RIGHT THING TO DO.

    There are many other things that I do to reduce waste, reduce energy use and reduce pollution.

    We are probably fucked, but I’m really tired of people who don’t do anything and complain about everything – like plastic bag bans – and who are also upset about this distressing news.

    Everyone needs to pitch in and help with this.

    • David L. Caster

      Done all of these things. All of our utility account maintenance fees are far greater than the actual usage part of their respective bills and I easily put less than 5,000 miles a year on our car.

      Edited to add that I have the very smallest garbage can the waste management company offers and it is rarely more than 1/4 of the way full. The extra recycle bins are free to us and they are huge but rarely full and the regular one is the size of the garbage bin, that is, the smallest available. When I clean out the clutter, it all goes in recycle. This includes yard waste which goes in one or more of 3 large bins.

      • Niblet58

        We canceled trash service years ago. We recycle, reuse, compost or let rot everything. Having a lot of acreage and designated compost wood rotting bins helps. Our garbage for the month fits into a paper bag which we drop off at Kroger. It can be done, it just takes work.

        • David L. Caster

          I’m almost there except for a usually small wet nasty bag a week. I only have a half acre and two right angle strips of it make up half of the streets where my corner lot sits. I have a little more work to do on the yard waste composing front before that becomes routine. At least that is composted by the waste company.

    • Nic Peterson

      All of that and 18 PV panels, two solar hot water panels, three solar attic fans and no central AC. The remodel project will include all LED lighting, magnetic resonance cooking surfaces and a system that will adjust the blinds to maximize the use of natural light and collect/reflect radiant heat based on seasonal need.

      I definitely won’t see the end of this century, lacking some really killer replacement parts, but I am not giving up.

      • Niblet58

        We were going to put in the attic fans but they pull the cooler air out of your house so we decided noto to bother. We do have access but it rarely goes on since we duper u insulated the roof, walls, and added room darkening, thermal drapes.

        • Nic Peterson

          Big easy breathing soffits are the key with attic fans. Balloon frame construction is also a plus but you can’t build like that anymore for obvious reasons.

    • CottonBlimp

      You do what little you can to help the planet. Meanwhile some fucking yahoo is “rolling coal” just to spite “liberals” who he’s never met.

      It’s depressing.

      • (((GC)))

        And meanwhile large CORPORATIONS and GOVERNMENTS are acting as if our planet and its resources are limitless, and nothing matters beyond the next quarterly balance sheet — and people getting sick and dying “aren’t their problem”.

    • Most of our waste goes to recycling or the compost bin…which rewarded us this season with spaghetti squash and zucchini “volunteers” – we are not big consumers of goods, most of our food is not pre-packaged. But we are still not green enough to make a dent in this global problem.

    • Tomcat

      Ha Ha Ha Ha.

    • safari

      No chaos. No chaos. You’re the chaos.

      • Christopher

        Like a game of Duck, Duck, Goose.

    • Tomcat

      Court jester is still open.

    • SOMEone had an “I’ll do this job, but you give me hiring/firing authority or no dice” acceptance requirement.

    • KnownDonorDad

      The decision to remove Mr. Scaramucci, who had boasted about reporting directly to the president not the chief of staff, John F. Kelly, came at Mr. Kelly’s request, the people said.

      Damn, Kelly whipped it right out! WHACK! WHACK!

    • safari

      It was not clear whether Mr. Scaramucci will remain employed at the White House in another position or will leave altogether.


    • Ken M

      My…that was fast.

      • safari

        Wasn’t it?

      • Rex

        People come and go so quickly around here.

        • Ken M

          Wanna bet he did leave on a broomstick?

    • Tomcat

      When every other word out of your mouth is a swear word , you might not be a great communicator.

    • Jonathan Smith
    • Tomcat

      He can still be trump’s buttbuddy.

    • Treant

      Shit. I had September 30th in the pool.

      Sigh, here’s my dollar.

      • dammit, i was right there with you. /hands over Sacajawea coin dollar/

    • Ken M

      I guess climate change was a good article topic after all.

    • Butch

      Not even a full week?

      • safari

        And he’s getting divorced. He had a bad week.

        • Ernest Endevor

          And now the Chinese buyers will withdraw…

      • Ken M

        not even 8 hours for Kelly

    • safari
    • Rex

      Is there a director of embarrassing tweets, vulgar interviews, and cock jokes position?

    • Joe has a thread up on this now.

    • Bluto

      You don’t suppose drumpf is setting up a super secret assassin squad w/ mooch in charge, do ya? It will be best assassin squad, better than putie’s.

    • (((GC)))
  • Ken M

    If it can’t be seen, his base doesn’t care.

  • Tomcat

    People keep saying Democrats have no message. Well republicans definitely have one, it’s we are not good at being adults.

  • Tomcat

    Scarry Mucus, in like Flint,, out like Flicker.

    • TampaDink

      10 days….I think that might be one for the record books.

      • Tomcat

        Every thing about the trump administration is one for the record books. Then pass laws against all of it.

        • TampaDink

          My old man used to say, “they don’t know whether to shit or go blind”. I was never really certain about that sayings origin or meaning.

  • Rex

    How do Jim Bakker’s end of times food buckets hold up in the heat?

  • Joseph Miceli

    We MIGHT have some breathing room. I remember reading that some scientists are speculating that we might be entering a new “Maunder Minimum” where solar activity decreases. This might give us time to get our shit together. Might. Of course, if we don’t by the time the new MM ends, we are going to get a really bad “rubber band” effect. I don’t hold out much hope for humanity if that happens.

    • Karl Dubhe

      That’s a very small amount of energy, really. It’s greatly offset by the CO2e that’s in the atmosphere.

      • Joseph Miceli

        I don’t agree at all . The Mondrian minimum is often referred to as the Little Ice Age” or ” the year without a summer. ” it affected the worlds climate for decades .

        • Karl Dubhe

          You’re mixing a few arguments together.

          There was a Little Ice Age in Europe, but it didn’t affect the whole planet.

          The “year without a summer” happened when Krakatoa exploded in the 1800s, well, one of them did. There have been others.

          I think you’re also talking about the maunder minimum which has to do with sunspots.

  • Ragnar Lothbrok

    The idea people are running around ” debating ” is pathetic,wrong and deadly to the rest of the planet. Thx Cochs & GOP

  • Karl Dubhe

    Really wish they’d drop “by the end of this century.” People hear that, and reasonably say, “there’s lots of time to figure something out.”

    There isn’t time to figure something out.

    We’ll hit a 2 degree rise long before the end of the century. We might hit it in less than a decade, thanks to idiots in the fuel industry.

  • Natty Enquirer

    Thanks goodness I won’t be around to hear our descendants curse us.

  • Johnny Wyeknot

    Argh…so why bother to do anything? Make your profits now and live the high life. But don’t forget not to procreate. ;-/

  • ted-

    And you have people like my very own sister who thinks it’s conspiracy created by scientists…

    • KnownDonorDad

      Well, we’ve totally made up evolution to destroy Christianity, so we’re capable of anything.

  • sword

    There is always a silver lining…at least, Trump’s Mar-a-Largo estate will be underwater. But by that time, he will have sold it for $200 billion to the Russians.

    • (((GC)))

      Or it will become a monument to tRump’s failed presidency:

      The Fate of Mar-A-Lago

      June First, 2070.
      Today at last our city has acquired a landmark which will attract tourists for decades to come. Barron Trump, last surviving child of disgraced one-time president Donald Trump, has finally succeeded in his crusade to create a monument to his father, to join the Presidential Centers which commemorate every other person to have held that office.

      The monument consists of a museum and library located in the upper floors of the historic Mar-A-Lago Estate, once that president’s luxury getaway. Now located about 100 feet offshore, Mar-A-Lago had been accessible only by boat, but is now attached to the mainland by a floating causeway […]

      The dedicatory ceremony was held yesterday, attended by all surviving ex-presidents, but not by President Kumarr, who cited prior obligations. She did delegate her wife’s stepson to represent her.

      See related story with visuals and descriptions of the entire facility.

      […] And what’s that in front of [holographic replica Trump] on the desk? Look at it carefully folks. That’s not a replica. It’s the very cell-phone on which he typed his famous tweets. His son took care to preserve it after his death. No, you can’t touch it. It’s protected by a force-field.

      (For related explanatory stories, “What was a cell-phone?” and “What were tweets?”, blink here.***)

      You pass out of the Oval Office into a long corridor. There are exhibits along both sides, but first look down between your feet. No, you’re not floating in mid-air. You’re standing on a thick glass floor. Below you, you can see the lowest level of Mar-A-Lago, left just as it was when it was abandoned to the rising ocean. Despite the water and seaweed, you can discern all the luxurious and flamboyant details for which it was famous. Yes, it could have been pumped out and restored. It was decided (with the full agreement of Barron Trump) not to do so, as a tacit acknowledgement of the important part Trump played in creating these environmental conditions. You could say that the bottom floor of Mar-A-Lago is Trump’s most lasting monument. […]

  • Rick
  • Tadgh Smith

    90% of this extra warming will be caused by the rise of India and China, not the western world.

  • Smith_90125

    This is why I’m Childfree. Creating new humans will only consume more natural resources and cause more pollution. And I will never have to look a child in the eye and explain why they are dying from starvation or drought.