Final Emerson College Poll Predicts Hillary Landslide

Via press release:

Amidst a general tightening of the race in key battleground states and a pattern of both Democratic and Republican voters coming home to the major-party candidates, Emerson College Polling is predicting that Hillary Clinton will win the Electoral College by a lopsided margin of 323-215. The map, shown below, reflects recent Emerson polling results in battleground and other states, combined with RealClearPolitics polling averages in those states Emerson has not surveyed.

In battleground Senate races, Emerson also projects that Democrats will come out of the election with 50 or more seats. That would be enough to claim a Senate majority if Clinton is elected and Tim Kaine, as Vice President, becomes the tie-breaking vote. Our final round of polls suggest that the following Democratic challengers will flip GOP seats in four states: Tammy Duckworth vs. Mark Kirk in Illinois, Russ Feingold vs. Ron Johnson in Wisconsin, Jason Kander vs. Roy Blunt in Missouri and Katie McGinty vs. Pat Toomey in Pennsylvania.

emmm

  • Lazycrockett
    • DonnaLee

      Shake it baby, shake it!

  • bkmn
    • lymis

      After all, you can stay home and cast your vote on the Internet. Your party said so.

  • Michael Smith

    That looks similar to my own prediction, though I’m not so sure about North Carolina. I think it’s going to depend on the GOTV there. Ohio could swing Clinton if she swarms Trump with her ground game or the polls are off. They’ve tightened there in the last week or so.

    • Butch

      Polls don’t account for ground games; apparently also a lot of the polls also are using demographics from 2004 and 2012 which are now not real accurate (that’s according to BooMan Tribune).

  • JoeMyGod

    I wouldn’t characterize 323-215 as a “landslide” – but we’ll take it.

    • Jamie_Johnson

      It would be if it were in Trump’s favor (at least according to Ghouliani and Newt).

      • olandp

        If a Republican wins, it is a mandate. If a Democrat wins, it is a mistake. As it always is.

        • PLAINTOM

          W lost the popular vote to Gore and declared a mandate.

    • Sam_Handwich

      215 is better than both McCain and Mittens managed

      • Boycott NC

        All these polls ignore the significant difference in the ground game between Democrats and Republicans. That happened in 2012 and it looks like it will happen again this year. GET OUT AND VOTE!

        • Rick Tan

          Nate Silver was very accurate in 2008, and perfect in 2012, yet everyone is finding it convenient to dismiss him in 2016. His model is now consistent with this final Emerson college final poll. I think those hoping for a Hillary landslide are delusional. The race has tightened a lot recently. The best we can hope for is the 325 electoral votes. In fact, that’s best scenario.

          • J Ascher

            Thanks to FBI interference, of course!

      • DonnaLee

        I saw that, and I can’t help but think more women will go out and vote against the Donald tomorrow. They may not love her, but they hate him.

    • Blake Jordan

      A landslide would be if she took Iowa and Ohio (usual swing states) as well, then adding Arizona, Georgia,… which all seemed possible at one point…

      • Ninja0980

        AZ and GA are more likely to be purple states in the future then IA and OH are.

      • james1200

        Iowa, which is 95% white, voted for the black, gay Muslim Obama twice (by 9 points in 2008 fer God’s sake!) and she’s going to lose it to the fat, orange melted carrot Trump?

        • Blake Jordan

          A fiscally incompetent, child rapist with orange skin and bad hair really speaks to them…

          • james1200

            Obama’s middle name is “Hussein”. These people fear Muslims more than they do black people and Obama was both (they thought)! The racists of Iowa are very confused people.

          • Blake Jordan

            Maybe a significant number of sane voters moved out of the state and/or a significant number of insane voters moved into the state during the last 4 years…

          • james1200

            Aliens. It’s always aliens.

          • Oikos
          • james1200

            Hiding in plain sight. Brilliant!

          • StrokeVictim

            LOL

          • Snownova

            With the amount of robocalls and political ads on tv those poor swing state saps have to endure, can you blame them for moving away?

        • elvigy

          Sort of a test for which is stronger, I guess, misogyny or racism? Joking aside, though, I don’t get it either. They’ve usually been reliably Democratic in Presidential elections. If they do go Republican this cycle, I think the Democratic Party should finally move the first-in-the-nation caucuses away from Iowa. There’s no point in having a red state decide our nominee.

          • Guest

            It really isn’t a joke; I am dumbstruck by this campaign, and the realization of how threatening to American men the idea of a woman president has turned out to be. I was naively thinking it would not be such a big deal. But misogyny is quite strong.

          • Tiger Quinn

            For me it’s one of those “I think I knew, but had no idea HOW MUCH” kind of things. You grow up knowing men are kind of afraid of women and think this about them and so on, but you live in polite society so you rarely hear that outside of Thanksgiving or a random Wal Mart clutch.

            But then this election. Holy crap, I have heard more racist BS in the last month that I moved to PALM SPRINGS than in the years before when I lived in Dallas. Trump has empowered these terrified men who really do seem to think that everybody is coming to get them.

          • TheSeer

            Misogyny is the strongest cultural force in the history of civilization. It is stronger than racism. And homophobia is only a byproduct of it.

          • Rambie

            Trump is voicing many of the frustrations that these voters are feeling;

            1- Getting left behind in the economic recovery & jobs
            2- The rich getting richer while the poor get poor-er
            3- Anti-establishment
            4- etc.

            Problem is, all this is what the Republicans made happen and never had any intention of changing it.

          • DesertSun59

            And those Republicans have successfully duped their supporters to keep voting against their own interests, time and again.

          • Rambie

            Bad thing is, the Democrats have not learned how to get that message out to them. Sure the GOP’ers use bogymen of social issues to keep them vote Republican, but there should be a way to cut through that and the Democrats haven’t spent enough time trying.

          • John

            And THAT is where the Gay Bugaboo came in so handy to them.

          • John

            AMEN! And do you think they will ever get it and stop voting Republican???

          • Rambie

            Hopefully the Democrats learn how cut through to those voters and expose the lies of the Republicans.

          • SelectFromWhere

            Any state is free to move their primaries before Iowa’s–it’s not some kind of national decision to have it there. Many states area moving their primaries earlier, and many of us wish they were all helpd much closer together. But, those things are states’ choices. Any state can decide to hold a “caucus” in December the previous year if they want to be first.
            It used to be that both Iowa and New Hampshire, coincidentally, were both pretty much Swing states, but with one turning more Red and the other more Blue, I hope candidates don’t give those early states much credence at all in making decisions later. Really, there are so many things wrong with the way we choose our President here.

        • Ragnar Lothbrok

          It’s spelled Iowugh, James

          • james1200

            And ‘China’ is ‘Gina’. I keep forgetting. Sad!

          • John30013

            “Gina” is my sister’s name (pronounced “jee-na”).

            What you want is “Jina”. 🙂

          • Ragnar Lothbrok

            You are right John. We should spank him.

        • popebuck1

          I know in Indiana, it was the voter ID laws that turned the tide. Obama took the state in 2008, though just barely – but with the voter ID laws in place by 2012, that was not allowed to happen again. So maybe Iowa is one of the voter ID states.

          • SelectFromWhere

            Supposedly the deal in Iowa and Ohio is that they are so full of former manufacturing workers whose jobs went out of the country. Even Michigan has at some points been seen as “in play” over this. I saw a map, county-by-county, for Blue to Red shift over the past few elections, and Eastern Iowa stands out the most with deep red.

        • Chris Davis

          Since 2012 Iowa has gotten older and whiter.

        • SelectFromWhere

          Iowa even went for DUKAKIS, for God’s sake (so did West Virginia!). But apparently NAFTA et al have turned those central-US states Redder and Redder. Still hoping for a squeakout in Ohio, though.

      • AnotherJosh

        And if she takes Indiana, I’m breaking my personal rule and buying a lottery ticket.

        • lymis

          Whether she does or not, it looks good for both the Senate seat and the Governor’s Mansion in Indiana.

          • AnotherJosh

            Anecdotally, in my rural town, there are Trumpence signs all over, but in many yards that don’t have Trumpence signs, there are Gregg for governor signs (while nary a Hillary sign is in sight). I can only assume that at least some of those Gregg supporters will vote for Hillary even if they’re ashamed to have her sign in their yard (or maybe they just don’t want to deal with the inevitable shit they’d get from the Trumpbots).

          • Michael Abbett

            I was surprised to see several Hillary signs in the usually deep red Franklin, Indiana. I don’t think that the Clinton campaign really thought there was much of a chance in Indiana so there is probably less spent on advertising materials here. But I am seeing a lot of Gregg signs, too. Holcomb would be the continuation of Pence’s anti-gay, religious right agenda.

        • Charles in Bloomington

          It’s completely blue here in Bloomington …

          • Cody in CT

            Bloomington–IL, IN, CA or MN?

          • Charles in Bloomington

            Indiana

          • Alex in Idaho

            I loved living there–a little oasis of sanity in a sea of …um, let’s say, corn.

          • Robincho

            Indiana has Bloomington, Texas has Austin, Oregon has Eugene, Colorado has Boulder, etc. Every state’s got a Berkeley, thank cheeses priced. Because find a university and you find where the smart peepz are…

    • David Teager

      Yeah, “landslide” would be +10% in popular vote.

    • J Ascher

      That margin, 108 votes of 538, is 20% of the entire electoral college. Pretty substantial, I’d say.

  • skyweaver

    I keep hoping that there is a not-insignificant group of people who are not ‘likely voters’ in polls but who have been so personally horrified by Trump since his initial “they’re bringing rapists” on down to “grab ’em by the pussy” that they’re going to show up tomorrow for the first time

    • Jamie_Johnson

      I believe there is a hidden vote; I call them “wives of angry old white men”.

      • skyweaver

        God I hope so. Unfortunately there’s a few ‘wives of angry young white men’ as well

    • lymis

      A lot of them have already been showing up in early voting. It’s happening.

  • Butch

    Regarding an earlier thread, there’s a pretty interesting piece over at HuffPo about the problems with 538’s model for projections. (I’ll edit my post to include the link in a minute).
    But that aside….in the last 2 weeks we’ve gone from fevered stories about the Clinton landslide, and then to Comey’s letter and equally fevered stories about the “tightening” race, and now back to landslide. I’m beginning to think that the best possible outcome is for aliens to eliminate all intelligent life on the planet sometime this afternoon. It would certainly be the most merciful.
    Here’s the link I mentioned in the first sentence:
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/whats-wrong-with-538_us_581ffe18e4b0334571e09e74

  • greenmanTN

    No matter what happens I’m baffled by any support for Trump.

    The guy who thinks he needs a gilded toilet because he thinks that’s classy.

    The guy who lies constantly.

    Yeah, him.

    • Lesley

      The hate for Hillary in this country runs deep, even among people who voted for her. We can’t ignore this fact. The conspiracy theories surrounding this woman are wild and crazy.

  • David From Canada

    Canadians for Hillary!!!

    • Adam King

      USAns for Trudeau!

    • DonnaLee

      You lucky bastards, if we had him running, it would be an easy 400+ electoral votes here! I mean what is not to like? But I can’t help wishing for a landslide!

  • AndyinChicago

    I’m glad we’re winning but also am having a hard time being excited by this. In 2008, Obama ran against a war hero and got all of this plus Ohio, Iowa, and one point in Nebraska. We need to re-strategize our strategy if we’ve lost points running against an unlikable criminal who suggested war crimes and mocked women, veterans, the families of the fallen, immigrants, refugees, Mexicans, the disabled, etc..

    • Lesley

      Don’t forget Indiana.

    • Bruno

      It’s always difficult to elect someone from the same party as an 8-year incumbent. Marry that with the increased polarization in this country (so much so that the other side will excuse their candidate for ANYTHING) and Clinton’s relative lack of charisma compared to Obama, and we have what we have.

      • moebym

        Include demographic changes and deep-seated Clinton hate in the mix as well.

        • Lazycrockett

          and she’s a woman. Let’s not ignore that elephant.

          • lymis

            Let’s vote against that elephant.

      • AndyinChicago

        I get that. There’s also the visceral hatred toward Clinton that has been cultivated by the Right for a while. But there’s still something to be considered about what went wrong with this campaign. Obama has a huge approval rating for a president at the end of 8 years and the economy is in a really good spot, so a lot of the incumbent party standard issues are alleviated. We did not do as well as we should have in a year when we have a very popular president. Why? We didn’t mobilize the youth vote. We didn’t mobilize the African American vote. We didn’t maintain our popularity with progressives. There’s a lot to consider of how we can turn around a trend of losing ground.

        • moebym

          On what basis do you argue that we didn’t mobilize the youth and AA votes?

          • AndyinChicago

            Early voting returns show participation in both demographics are severely down.

        • Lazycrockett

          We were always going to lose a % of the AA because she’s not the first black president. Also the youth doesn’t always show up to the polls.

          • AndyinChicago

            True, but I think that’s only part of the story.

    • Ross

      What Obama GOT and what Hillary MIGHT get are two different things.

      One can only compare AFTER the election tomorrow.

      • AndyinChicago

        Fair.

    • Butch

      I think also that Obama wasn’t fighting against 25 years of BS from Faux News and the GOP. Many people have a bad impression of Hillary that they can’t actually explain.

      • lymis

        I still think that one factor in the way the first Obama election played out is that the Republicans were so certain that Clinton would win the nomination that they didn’t bother to prep to oppose Obama. That, more than anything else, is why Palin ended up on the ticket (“They’ll have a woman, let’s get ourselves one!”)

        By the time it really sunk in that they were running against a black man and not the Whore of Babylon, they couldn’t retool the hate machine fast enough, and Obama had already inspired too many people.

        That’s not any kind of slam at Obama. It’s the first election in my lifetime that I could happily support either of the candidates my party was proposing, not to mention a primary campaign run with grace and decency. I’m thrilled Hillary got another shot, and that Obama supports her so completely.

        This time around, they knew exactly who they were fighting, and were able to mobilize everything in advance. Let’s not kid ourselves thats that’s not why we had 47 Benghazi inquisitions.

  • Rebecca Gardner

    Disqus hates me this morning so I hope this works.
    https://twitter.com/firefire100/status/794550526847451137

    • Gustav2

      He was on The Graham Norton Show apologizing for Trump to the Brits.

  • Wayne

    I was thrilled to pick up my tickets for Hillary’s Election Night Celebration at the Javits Center (not to mention seeing all the young volunteers that were flooding into the Manhattan Field Office yesterday!!) I’m so ready to cast my vote tomorrow!!!!
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d9590c5d9f29ebd0be50a02155029d0082a074a691d195b561e30c7d73977947.jpg

    • David From Canada

      Good for you Wayne! I wondered what had happened to you. Hang in there and celebrate for me as well! Hillary 2016.

      • Wayne

        Thanks, David! Will do!

    • j.martindale

      I am invited to her last pre-election rally, here in Raleigh tonight at midnight. I have to work tomorrow, but may try to go, anyway.

      • DonnaLee

        Dammit you’re invited but thinking of not going?
        Are you crazy?

        • j.martindale

          No, I am old. That and I have to work tomorrow.

    • Randy503

      Good work, soldier!

    • Do Something Nice

      Don’t forget to tell her that you didn’t vote for Obama and defended Mitt Romney as being good for the LGBT community.

      • Traxley Launderette

        Rude.

        • Oikos

          DSN is correct.

          • Ragnar Lothbrok

            #NeverForget

          • Wayne

            I remember 8 years ago quite well. I remember just a few short months ago and your comments about Hillary during the Primary even better. lol #DontForgetTheHypocrisy

          • Ragnar Lothbrok

            Dunno what you think you remember, but it was probably true and far from nasty. However, I do remember you saying something totally deplorable about one of our good JMG members here.
            I also remember you posting yet another selfie of you killing a tree. lolzszszszszszs!!
            Sad!!!

          • Wayne

            Oh right, you NEVER said anything nasty or untrue about Hillary during the primary with Bernie. Not a single thing. LOLZ

            Tell yourself whatever you want. I’m going to be having a great time with Hillary – and a lot of other fun folks who worked their butts off to get her elected the next president – you can do whatever it is you folks who slagged Hillary off do. Have fun with that. Bye bye

          • Ragnar Lothbrok

            Everything I said was true and accurate. I came around to Lady Hill, so don’t give me your ” you folks ” crap.
            Have fun at your wing ding, but try not to bother her too much.

          • vorpal

            Get a room, you two!

          • Acronym Jim

            Only if they get one at the Hilton NY so all the screaming from the hate-fuck drowns out the Trump shindig.

          • Ragnar Lothbrok

            I’ve seen his ” room “. No thank you and hell no !

          • vorpal

            DAE, NAE, or DNAE?
            I am so sorry.
            Thoughts and prayers.

          • Ragnar Lothbrok

            Wow ! Thoughts AND prayers?!! You really DO care !

            ( DAE )

          • vorpal
          • Do Something Nice

            Tell us again how President Romney would have been better than Obama for LGBTs?

            And whatever comments of mine you recall or are making up, nothing compares to you voting against Obama nor defending Romney.

          • Bill_Perdue

            I remember you defending the racist pig Zimmerman, who murdered Trayvon Martin.

      • Tiger Quinn

        Yup.

      • JustDucky

        And he’s obviously learned from his mistake and now he is doing his part to help us bury the Tangerine Hellbeast at the polls tomorrow.

        The Democratic Party is the big tent party, remember? That means we need to leave the tent flaps open and welcome people when they join us inside. Shutting people out because they don’t pass a purity test isn’t going to help us elect candidates who will work towards positive change.

        • Do Something Nice

          I don’t for a minute think that he will be loyal to Democrats.

          • JustDucky

            “You catch more flies with honey than with vinegar.”

            We should give people the benefit of the doubt when they change their minds. Outgrouping people doesn’t encourage loyalty.

          • Do Something Nice

            If Wayne wasn’t such a smarmy asshole, I’d agree.

    • Lumpy Gaga

      Stoopid husband can’t read email. SO I don’t know if we’re in for tonight’s rally with Michelle Obama et al. (et al. being POTUS, Bruce Springsteen, Bill Clinton…)

      • Wayne

        Ouch, hang in there! And remember forgiveness is divine – especially when it comes to husbands! 😉

        • Lumpy Gaga

          “RSVP”ing didn’t generate any kind of ticket in email, just a time/place confirmation.

          Gates open at 4PM at 4th and Chestnut, I haven’t sprinted for a stage since I was in my 30s. The fact is, you need lots of people in the “cheap seats” for an event like this. That I can handle.

          Michelle Obama on the road 2016!!!

          • Tom Ato

            I think you’re ok to just show up. We registered for one of the other events (Harrisburg) and there was no ticket or even a list of attendees when we entered.

            Take a look at the Inquirer online – there’s info about road closures and that the 5th St. SEPTA station will be closed.

            Post about the event so we can all share. Wish we could be there!

            Almost forgot…yeah! the SEPTA strike is over!

          • Lumpy Gaga

            Never seen POTUS live before. I hope “Don’t boo. Vote!” is still in his setlist.

    • MaryOGrady

      You lucky person!
      I’ll be thinking of you tomorrow night.

  • TK

    I see Nate has decided to suddenly go with the rest of the class.

    I still hope to see AZ blue.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/b71d46348bb786b30529c8cdbeae6c60eadb82b55397dc37bc9b65439a921566.jpg

    • Butch

      Wang and HuffPo are still above 95 percent, and well above it. He hasn’t really.

      • avidreader

        He called it herding on his Twitter today. As opposed to consensus.

        • Mark_in_MN

          Herding?? Huh?

  • Skeptical_Inquirer

    I’m sad that the Americans who vote GOP aren’t grossed out by Trump himself, his choice of administration, the amount of voter suppression the GOP indulges in, the creepy machinations of Comey, the sheer blood thirstiness of the Trumpeteers, and seriously, how the fuck do they forget George W. & Cheney.

  • Bruno

    Emerson has seemed a little more favorable to tRump than other pollsters at various times, but right now they seem spot on.

  • SoCalGal20

    Super cute GOTV video with Tyler Oakley and Hillary Clinton.

    http://youtu.be/NwY74h3Mujk

  • Jerry
  • Boycott NC

    VOTE! VOTE! VOTE!

  • TK
    • Lesley

      These fools are brazen

      • Gustav2

        Thanks for the extra D GOTV.

        Black Twitter should explode.

    • TominDC

      WTF is he on about?

      Black voter turnout was a percentage or two lower than white turnout in 2008, and was higher than white turnout in 2012.

      https://www.census.gov/prod/2013pubs/p20-568.pdf

      • Cipher

        How dare you consult and cite “facts”!

    • Tiger Quinn

      I honestly can’t believe he wrote that. What the hell is wrong with that man.

      • Earl

        He’s a shit-snorkling racist.

        It’s not at all surprising he’d write something like that.

        Hopefully something productive will come from it. (a high turnout from the community in question would provide that productive something.)

    • Treant

      Statistically, black women are the ones you really want to support you. Those ladies get out and VOTE!

      Black men aren’t so good, but they’re still a very reliable coalition.

      • Lesley

        “Statistically, black women are the ones you really want to support you. Those ladies get out and VOTE!”

        Yes we do, honey. My parents were members of SNCC in the 60s in New Orleans. My family is usually the first in line when the polls open. We understand the sacrifice and the struggle.

    • Lumpy Gaga

      I’d never heard that about basketball players.

  • Yixing’s Fluffer

    Ohio, Iowa, Arizona, Georgia, and Missouri would need to go blue before I’d call it a landslide, but if it staves off the end of humanity, I’ll take it.

  • Lumpy Gaga

    Don’t landslide on the train tracks, HRC!!

    [Philadelphia]’s mass transit system gradually returned to service Monday
    morning, with full service promised before Tuesday morning’s commuters
    begin their treks to work — just in time for Election Day.

    • Oikos

      Thank FSM!

  • Bill_Perdue

    H Clinton says that Trump is a raving, dangerous warmonger, a rabid racist and a union buster.
    Trump that H Clinton is a raving, dangerous warmonger, a rabid racist and a union buster.
    They’re correct.

    Trump wants to kill lots and lots of Palestinians and other Arabs and muslims. He’s a union buster by trade. And he’s a rabid racist, organizing bigots to bash immigrants. He’ll pay for that on Tuesday. And he’s as corrupt as the day is long.

    H Clinton has already helped organize the mass murder of Palestinians, Libyans and others in a vain attempt to intimidate the Arab Spring. She’s a scab who sat on the board of directors of WalMart, the worst union buster on the planet for six years. She has a twenty-year history of bashing the Black community and she’s paying for that now, as the Democrats are in panic mode about lower enthusiasm for her candidacy in Black communities. And she’s as corrupt as the day is long.

    On Tuesday, the 8th of November, 2016 write in or vote socialist, vote labor, vote for referendums for a decent minimum wage and to enable union organizing, to decriminalize pot or just sit it out as a protest vote. Whatever you do don’t vote for any Democrat, any Republican or any Libertarian. They’re the enemy.

    • Yixing’s Fluffer

      TLDR; vote LaRouche!

      • Bill_Perdue

        LaRouche is as bad as Trump and Hillary.

        Get help with your ADD.

    • kanehau

      As a Palestinian…. uh…. no.

      • Bill_Perdue

        She was instrumental in the deal to give hundreds of millions in arms and military supplies to the zionists and they used them to murder Palestinians.

        • Gene

          no one cares what you have to say.

          because you don’t say anything worth listening to.

          • Bill_Perdue

            Racists, anti environmentalists and union busters don’t like what I have to say. I’m comfortable with that.

          • Gene

            Its not that we don’t LIKE what you say, it’s that
            1) we don’t respect you enough to give anything you much thought
            2) we don’t respect you because you are rude, never acknowledge that parties and positions change over time, and hold to your dogma, ignoring everyone else and any thing you don’t like to admit, as if you were a fundamentalist street preacher

            That you have lived as long as you have and don’t “get” that, is the sad part

          • Bill_Perdue

            Democrat and Republican politicians and shills are the same. They’re all racists, anti environmentalists and union busters and they don’t like what I have to say. I’m comfortable with that.

          • Gene

            one last time…the fact that you 1) are stupid enough to think they are the same 2 ) are rude and obnoxious in how you express your obviously untrue claims, proves my point.

            you are just writing to let off steam I think

            you obviously are not trying to change minds….if you think that your approach IS the way to do that, its sad indeed.

          • Bill_Perdue

            Yes, yes, we all know you hate leftists and people who oppose union busting, wars of aggression and racism.

            I would never try to change the mind of a thug who wants to murder Chelsea Manning and Edward Snowden.

      • Bill_Perdue
    • Your enemy perhaps but not mine. I will be voting for Hillary and I am proud to do so. And I will be just as proud and happy to see her win.

      • Bill_Perdue

        HRH HRC is a rabid racist, war monger and union buster. If that’s what you want then voting for Clinton or Trump is your best option.

        • LOL you want to pretend that there is no difference? one supports the rights of gay people, the other does not. one supports the rights of women, the other does not. One supports a future of sustainable energy the other does not. I could go on but those three all on their own are enough to show that HRC is and always will be a far better choice then trump. pretending there is no difference only makes you look bad.

          • Bill_Perdue

            You Democrats gave us DADT and DOMA and refuse to pass ENDA.

            Democrats do not support the unlimited right to federal funded abortions without the interference of parents or others.

            Obama pushed fracking and offshore drilling and your party is as much an enemy of the environment as your Republican cousins.

            There are no real differences between Democrats and Republicans. Democrats lie better but that’s not a real difference.

          • Democrats also ended DADT and put in a lot of work to make marriage equality a reality. You pretending that the democrats have not advanced beyond the 90’s on gay rights is pitiful.

            your citing of oil production in the US while ignoring the ramp of of policies that support clean energy is also pitiful. keep digging that hole deeper, just hurting your own case.

          • Bill_Perdue

            Democrats refused to repeal DOMA, gave us DADT and consistently refused to pass ENDA as recently as 2009 and 2010. They’ve advanced their ability to lie better than Republicans and fool some people but that’s it.

            Fracking and offshore drilling are long steps in the march towards environment disaster.

          • Again your instance of citing 1990 Dem positions on gay rights while ignoring everything from then on is absurd. DADT repeal passed the Senate on a 65–31 vote….of thr 31 no votes 1 was dem…the rest were GOP. That i am able to openly serve in the military as a gay man in thanks to Democrats in the House, senate, and presidency. Your citing 1990 dem positions does nothing to change that.

            when you have to misrepresent something to make your case it is clear you have no case worth making. I say the same thing to the anti-gay crowd all the time.

          • Bill_Perdue

            Just a few days ago Obama said that Trump is a racist and will be after the election. Democrat politicians are bigots now (who fool some) and they will after the election.

            Democrats and their Republican brothers and sisters are the enemy. Those who pretend otherwise are either lying of have been gulled by lying politicians.

            Being part of the US military murder machine is something all decent people discourage.

          • and you pretend to give a fuck about DADT…. please. You can not at the same time say that people should not be in the military and pretend to care about what personnel policies apply to the military. But like I said I will Vote dem and be proud of it.

          • Bill_Perdue
    • Gene

      Bill…I have wanted to write this for a long time, but, have waited till I could write it knowing, deep down, that it was totally true.

      you are as irrelevant to this group as you are in life. A voice, speaking mainly to itself, convincing no one, and hurting its own cause.

      you have, with all honesty, my deepest sympathy and pity.
      you can’t, after all, “unwaste” a life

      Madam President Clinton, GLBT rights supporter and best nominee that was running…it has a GREAT sound to it.

      Its a pity your delusions and ignorance..and arrogance, wont let you join the party. but in any case, don’t fucking delude yourself into thinking you are going to ruin OURS. Understood?

      • Bill_Perdue

        Psychobabble from a bankster thuglet.

    • sosotiredofbillperdue

      Bill sweetie, have ya ever thought of upping that dose of thorazine? Them doctor fellas keep tellin’ ya these constant repetitive thought patterns of yours and seein’ enemies all over the place is just that schizophrenia actin’ up again. How many years are ya goin’ keep writing the same thing over and over? Also doll, ya gotta swallow them pills every day, consistent like, or they just stop workin’. I wish those nurses in that psych ward of yours would check to make sure ya ain’t been hidin’ ’em under your tongue again.

      Luv Ya!!

      Big Smootches!!!

      • Bill_Perdue

        Hi Vorpig

        • sosotiredofbillperdue

          Oh sweetums,

          You’re gettin’ the dozens of folks ya constantly fight with all mixed up again. This is what happens when ya aren’t on your meds, everybody turns into one big psychotic blur. So why don’t ya just try to swallow them pills before it gets to the point that the orderlies have to put ya back in restraints inside that padded isolation room again.

          We all luv ya Bill,

          Mega Smootches!

          • Bill_Perdue

            poor vorpig

    • Blocked. Bye, Felicia.

      • Bill_Perdue

        Bye Bye little dummy.

  • TK
    • Lesley

      My darn allergies

      • MaryOGrady

        The ninjas are back up in here cutting up onions.

    • m_lp_ql_m

      Wait–why? He seems white and male to me.

      • Acronym Jim

        Maybe they confused him for a reporter.

  • Gustav2

    That’s were all the pundits had it on the Sunday Morning shows.

  • good shot green

    Oh good, now we can get complacent.

  • Traxley Launderette

    Over the weekend the Trumpanzees loaded up their trucks and hit the roads and streets around here. They’ve nailed campaign signs on utility poles a good 12 feet off the ground, probably from standing on top of a tall vehicle.

    Somebody did the same thing with what appears to be a half sheet of plywood along westbound I-96 on the east side. Red and blue spray paint:

    “VotE 4 TRUmP”

    Seriously.

  • Do Something Nice

    First I hope it is a landside and that she sweeps a Democratic majority into office.

    Second, I hope that President Hillary Clinton realizes that many of us voted her into office because Trump winning was too awful to allow to happen and that she fucking better be a progressive president.

    That said, good luck Hillary.

  • hdtex

    RIGGED!!! (Seriously though….it was AWESOME to vote for Tammy Duckworth as senator this time around).

  • JuanGalicia

    I both want a crushing defeat for the Donald … at the same time I kind of wish Ohio doesn´t go with the victor so that people can stop saying it´s essential for winning <.<

    • Michael Smith

      Yeah I heard someone say that the election might depend on Latinos in Ohio and I was like what the Hell? If Trump loses Ohio, he’s almost certainly lost most of the other swing states and it won’t matter at that point.

      • clay

        Yeah, it’s like that student complaining that a D in my elective course is going to prevent them from graduating.

    • Gustav2

      Hey, our poor TV stations need to survive. Those ads 24/7 are fabulous!

  • TK
    • avidreader

      The Secret Service agents are not amused.

      • Adam King

        They have to have their sense of fun removed before joining the SS.

        • canoebum

          Oh really. What was all that ruckus in Cartagena in 2012? They seemed to having a little too much fun.

          • Adam King

            Not one of them cracked a smile the whole time. They’re carefully trained to drink, drug and whore around without ever removing their earpieces, sunglasses or neckties.

  • thom

    National Rasmussen Tracking Poll:

    Clinton 45% (+2)
    Trump 43%
    Johnson 4%
    Stein 2%

    https://t.co/Upm6w0aCfU

    Final National @MonmouthPoll:

    Clinton 50 (+6)
    Trump 44
    Johnson 4
    Stein 1

    https://t.co/LQXSOjkexT

    National Fox News Poll:

    Clinton 48 (+4)
    Trump 44

    https://t.co/WUyqaP1ooi https://t.co/DTqCZqDppy

    NBC’s final battleground map: Clinton 274, Trump 170, 94 in Tossup https://t.co/M3Eu4J8HVt https://t.co/I90NWblE74

    • Jerry

      And both Fox and Rasmussen are skewed GOP, so the “at least 6%” is probably correct.

    • Michael Smith

      Final Rasmussen poll had Romney up by 1. He lost by about 4.

    • Lesley

      if Rasmussen has her up by 2, you can add five for accuracy, lmao.

  • Dan Robinson

    He can grab pussy but she will break his balls.

  • thom
  • Blake Jordan

    The fact that Sec. Clinton is going to beat drumpf by less than Pres. Obama did either McCain or Romney shows how successful the rethuglican ~25 year smear campaign against has been!!!

    • Ross

      The election has not happened yet.

      Obama, in both elections, did better IN THE END than predicted.

      Hillary will, too.

      Let’s talk Wednesday morning.

  • Kevin Perez

    The SEPTA strike worries me.
    Edit: Stike over. No longer worried.

    • SoCalGal20

      There is no SEPTA strike. Thry settled and are back to work.

      • Oikos

        Woohoo!!!

    • Ninja0980

      It’s been settled.

  • SoCalGal20
    • avidreader

      That second sentence is wonderful!

      He just can’t get out of his habit of feuding with celebs. I’m sure he thought Beyonce was a lock-in for a future Celebrity Apprentice contestant, that’s why he’s so butthurt.

  • thom

    good news!
    The DOJ to monitor elections in select counties in 28 states, including Atlanta, Chicago, Milwaukee & Philadelphia. https://t.co/Cg9mDPEXfk

    • Lazycrockett

      RIGGED!!!!

  • Tiger Quinn

    OT: one of you referred to Sarah Palin as “Blamey Whitehouse” yesterday. I’ve been using that liberally every since.

  • Tiger Quinn

    The sad thing about Trump losing is that I won’t know how to refer to, paw at, or just start kissing any dames or broads I meet going forward.

  • TK
    • Gustav2

      It is all the TV pundits are predicting, except a very few Republicans.

      • NowAnAgnostic

        Karl Rove?

        • PLAINTOM

          This election that would be Karl who ?

        • Gustav2

          Michael Steele had Clinton at 297

    • PLAINTOM

      OT: I would love for Trump to lose Utah. Go McMullin :).

  • PLAINTOM

    I honestly still don’t understand Ohio. Governor Kasich refused to endorse Trump and Portman withdrew his endorsement and both have strong support within the state. Hell, the Trump campaign isn’t even speaking to the head of the Ohio Republican Party.

    • Ninja0980

      They’ll still suppressing the vote for him and as I say, actions speak louder then words.

    • TK

      Have you ever been to Ohio? Outside any major city it’s like being in Texas.

      God, Guns and Football.

      https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/b8f36bf9194ca4f2755ac84497472e521d7264ea7846e8b367c41c274affd382.jpg

      • Ninja0980

        Same in NY… especially Upstate and sadly Buffalo.

      • Tiger Quinn

        We drove through Ohio twice on a cross country trip in 1997. To this day that state has the worst roads and drivers I have ever encountered. My husband I still mutter “fuck Ohio” now and then.

        • Adam King

          Apparently you’ve never driven through Michigan.

          • Gustav2

            Especially the UP.

      • Gustav2

        The North Eastern corner of our state is not so Blue this year.

        Trump will bring back those pre-1970’s factory jobs!

        • Ninja0980

          That is what he is banking on there and in WI, MI and PA.
          That folks who vote Democrat will vote for him.
          I think that will happen but not in the massive numbers he thinks.. and those will be countered by GOP folks doing the opposite.

      • Adam King

        As an Ohioan, I’ll say this about my neighbors–they can be fairly friendly. Unfortunately I can’t say much for their looks, intelligence or the quality of their children. All the best undereducated West Virginians and Kentuckians, the ones with enough ambition to flee their home towns, migrate here.

      • Ross

        Yes, but what is the population of those blue areas??????

        Land mass matters shit. It’s all about the population, baby!

    • Gustav2

      I’m waiting to see how the suburban Republican women vote tomorrow. NONE of the stalwart Republican women office holders have endorsed Trump either.

      But the Teavangelical streak in Ohio is strong.

  • Tiger Quinn

    Bang your drums and force your friends and family to get out and vote – I am not worried about complacency, but like no other election MARGINS MATTER. Even if you live in a “safe” state, get out there and get everybody else out there, too. Look at the record numbers of Hispanic voters – they will be treated entirely differently now next election given those numbers. Margins Matter.

  • TrollopeReader

    I’d like NC to go blue — because Gov. McBigot and all the others.

    • Rockola404

      Yes! I hope Roy Cooper wins Governor in NC.

  • SFBruce

    I’d love to see Clinton have a 300+ plus electoral victory. She’ll have a hard enough time governing after this campaign, and a decisive victory would help. It also makes Trump’s inevitable claims about “rigging” that much more hollow. However, if it’s 270-268 with Clinton on top I’ll still be both relieved and happy.

    • Ross

      It is unlikely that Hillary will less than 322 EV.

      The only question is how much higher will she do?

      I think her threshold is 332, and suspect the will do much better even.

      I think Tuesday is going to be surprising. In a good way!

      • JustSayin’

        While i see your confidence in that number i think it is misplaced. Hopefully i am wrong but i believe you are substituting hope for fact

        • Ross

          There can be no facts till after the election.

          And my confidence is based on respected forecasters:

          EMERSON: 323EV

          ELECTORAL-VOTE: 317

          YOUGOV: 332

          NYT: 322

          Also, early voting supports a strong indication of Hillary doing really well.

  • chasmader

    Arizona is going to go for Hillary. Sheriff Joe being on the ballot ion Phoenix has really energized Dems.

    • As an Arizona voter who voted for Hillary and voted AGAINST Sheriff Joe, all I can say is, “From your mouth to the FSM’s noodly appendages! Ramen!”

  • PLAINTOM

    Please (at the very least) give us a tied Senate.

    • avidreader

      Even just with filling judicial vacancies she could influence the country for the next couple of decades.

      • The_Wretched

        Which is why they will throw every dirty trick at her and then some. The last few years of SCOTUS have been one bizarre and stupid ruling after another. They are ripe for reversion.

  • Mike__in_Houston

    I’m hoping that all of these polls are correct and that Nate Silver is wrong. He’s the only one I know of who is saying that Hillary is barely going to squeak by, if that…

    • Treant

      Silver fell in line this morning and moved NC and FL into Hillary’s column, although he’s still forecasting 294 EVs.

      To me, it looks like a fairly transparent attempt to have it both ways and proclaim he was right whether it was a squeaker or a landslide.

  • Poll last night has Hassan +4 in New Hampshire over Ayotte. That one’s still a possible get.

  • Nate Silver’s latest map looks similar. Hopefully this is accurate. My “bold” prediction is Nevada and Florida for certain, based on early voting and the Latino vote.

  • Marides48

    While Hillary will easily win California, I think tRump will win in my conservative Central Valley town. Although I must admit that Hillary or tRump signs are a far & few here, which may reflect limited excitement for either POTUS candidate. At any rate I voted for Hillary last week.

  • Salton

    La vie en rose ! When you’re so confident you’re going to win, you rarely do. Unfortunately!

  • Ross

    A TALE OF THREE FORECASTERS

    I attach THREE images.

    The first is from Clickbait Nate at 538. The second is from Electoral-vote. Note the VAST discrepancy. Nate shows that Hillary doesn’t stand a chance in Ohio; EV shows the opposite. Then…image #3, the highly respected YouGov forecasts a slight Hillary edge.

    It will be interesting to see who proves the better forecaster.
    . https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/e795e0f87f5609bf375d48eb2b774d6e5b53cdee0bda765b8b5e3f5b82447d6d.png https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/0066e91c62e2b569101fa97049bacf1c85282a835d868182350f047108478698.png https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/06509851e82acfc3c1ce10738e0de6e56dd7cf69e3f52e6e197081f613b5e7dd.png

    • I still can’t figure out Nate’s percentages of winning. How can you say Trump has a 34% chance of winning — who would put money down right now on him if these were the odds? What exactly is he measuring?

      • JustSayin’

        Nates poll is a poll of polls. It is an aggregate over time of the results. All the data is on the site if you do not believe his numbers.

        • Ross

          Nate opening admits to unskewing the data.

    • DrRobY

      You are mixing the meanings of these numbers. The last two are percent of the vote for each candidate, while 538 uses what is the probability for each candidate to win. 538 has Clinton winning the election with a 67% probability; that is not 67% of the vote.

      • Ross

        Ahh. I see why you mean! Thank you.

        But, the point is still the same. 538 says that Hillary isn’t likely going to win OH, while EV and YouGov say she might.

  • Richard

    323-215 landslide? GOD I HOPE SO !!.

  • The only state I am unsure about is North Carolina. But the map looks good otherwise. On my own projections I put New Hampshire and North Carolina down as the two states hardest to call right now.

    • DrRobY

      Agree with you 100%, even down to the NH and NC uncertainty.

    • WhiteJesus

      FLA and OH are tough to call as well and will likely go Trump.

      • LookielouE1707

        With the surge of low-propensity unaffiliated latino voters in FL, the polls are going to be off there.

        • WhiteJesus

          I hope so.

  • DesertSun59

    That’s not the definition of a landslide. It’s the definition of squeaking out a victory.

  • JoPa

    God, i hope so. I can barely fucking sleep.

  • David

    Is that a “Reagan/Mondale landslide” or an “Obama/Romney landslide”?