PENNSYLVANIA: Hillary +7 In New York Times Poll

Via Politico:

Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump in Pennsylvania, according to a new poll out Thursday that shows Trump’s path to an Electoral College majority remains a tight-rope walk. The Siena College poll, conducted for The New York Times’ “Upshot” data-journalism microsite, shows Clinton leading Trump, 46 percent to 39 percent. Libertarian Gary Johnson is at 6 percent, and Green Party nominee Jill Stein is at 3 percent. A combined 7 percent of likely voters prefer another candidate, won’t vote for the top of the ticket or are undecided.

Clinton’s lead in Pennsylvania has been fairly consistent over the past month, and her 7-point lead in the new survey matches her overall advantage in POLITICO’s Battleground States polling average in the commonwealth. The new poll was conducted Oct. 23-25, even as other surveys have indicated Trump is tightening the race slightly.

The former secretary of state is running better with white voters in Pennsylvania than she is nationally, the poll shows. Trump has a 5-point lead among white voters, 45 percent to 40 percent, but Clinton has a commanding lead over Trump among African-American voters, 90 percent to 1 percent. Clinton also leads among Hispanic voters, 61 percent to 13 percent.

  • bkmn

    Expect Trump & Co. to go very low since she is going high.

    • Rambie

      They’ve exposed more subbasements of decency than any GOP’er in decades.

  • Jmdintpa

    n case anyone left hasnt seen the writing on the wall a new civil way may be the only way to resolve our current division in this country. I for one think the amount of hate and loathing I have for these republicans is far beyond any forgiveness stage. They sure as hell arent going to work with blacks , gays , women etc. So either face it and prepare or be a person who is caught up in the full on panic. They will not work to make this country move forward, they will burn it down before they give up there place of privilege. This is the same people who started the first civil war and they will do it again. Remember they truly really believe god is on there side so they have nothing to lose … in there mind its a win win !

    • Todd20036

      There won’t be any civil war. Most of the GOP who fall in that category are too freaking old and fat.
      What could happen is the Trumpanzees could split off into a new third party that is very fascist and basically a cult of personality.
      Since such a party would siphon votes and influence from the GOP, I’d call this a good thing.

      • greenmanTN

        Don’t be so sure. They have a very cunning plan!

        http://www.freakingnews.com/pictures/15000/Armed-wheelchair-15078.jpg

        • TuuxKabin

          Is it adaptable for ‘lefties’?

        • Treant

          It’s particularly effective in parking lots and places where your opponents can’t run faster than 3 miles an hour.

          • TuuxKabin

            Can you imagine doing wheelies in that, blazing away. Gawd.

          • Treant

            Who has to clean the leaked poo off the seats?

            Most nurses aides seem to be Democrats, after all.

          • Silver Badger

            We can re-purpose the few surviving haters.

          • Treant

            They don’t do anything unless it directly benefits them, so I can’t see that happening… 🙂

          • Silver Badger

            It is amazing what re-education and heavy medication can accomplish.

          • TuuxKabin

            Considering it’ll most likely be ‘every person for their/them(?) self’ they’ll have to clean their own seats. I worked with nurses’ aides, and once a line is drawn, they’re on the side that benefits them, and more than willing to let the other side sit in their own shit.

        • Silver Badger

          I want one. I want one. I want one.

          • TuuxKabin

            Don’t forget to put a ‘playing’ card on the spokes. Or a balloon, so when it pops, all hell will break loose.

        • Marides48

          It should be available in “Camo” instead of target red.

        • Todd20036

          The only ordinance in existence that could be thwarted by a pot hole.

        • McSwagg
      • Jmdintpa

        I agree that many of them are just all talk. Well it may not be the war like before but it only takes a couple of deranged rednecks with AK47s to do a lot of damage. Then they will effectively break the government so that nothing, nothing at all will be done. No infrastructure improvements, no police protections, many states will start to pass these so called resolutions where they ignore the feds and will basically start there own little countries withing each states borders. Something will have to happen to make our government work or it will fail and these white bigots would love to see the United States fail. The country is going to fall apart piece by piece.

      • cleos_mom

        But there are at least two people posting here who are apparently hoping and rooting for a civil war. Maybe it’s an extension of the “let them take over and watch The People rise up” mentality.

    • avidreader

      Whoever thought 50 years ago the GOP will become Russia’s best chance at destabilising the US to its core?

      Also, people in this article actually want another civil war: http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/28/us/politics/donald-trump-voters.html

    • Silver Badger

      I used to think I was a peaceful man. However, it is time to take out the trash.

      • Snarky

        I’m about to throw out the trash right now. Just waiting for him to finish his coffee.

  • Todd20036

    Anyone who still calls Pennsylvania a swing state is in serious denial.

    • Treant

      I’m not even sure we’re Leans D any longer. In the last few elections, we’ve been Likely Democratic and loving it.

      Mind you, there’s a slight drift red-wards in the western part of the state, balanced by increasing population in Philly and expansion of the city into surrounding counties. Which one will win? I can’t tell.

      • Reality.Bites

        Trump has skewed this election so much in favour of the Democrats that we can draw no meaningful conclusions about the impact of demographic change. There are, we’ve all seen, numerous examples of people who’d normally gleefully vote Republican if it was literally anyone else.

        An article I read at Slate speculates on whether or not he will finish the Demward drift from visible minorities that pretty much started with Goldwater.

        • Treant

          True, but we were +5 for both Obama elections, and even more than that for Bill Clinton.

          Kerry and Gore were marginal at around +2, but notably weaker candidates.

          I seriously think that, after 3 cases where they’ve voted D, the youngsters (who are now turning 30) are programmed as Democrats. The last three elections have been seriously bad for Republicans, and cost them the Millennials and minorities.

      • Hank

        PA is somewhat like NY State with NYC predominantly Democratic and Upstate NY more republican. I hope, that PA swings more solidly Blue in the future!!

    • Jerry

      Every 4 years, PA is the GOP’s Lucy and the football…”This year we will win it”.

    • Ross
      • Reality.Bites

        I think a more normal Republican candidate might have a shot, but I just don’t believe it’s possible for Trump to do what Bush, McCain and Romney couldn’t. And that goes for every other state too. If it wasn’t won by the previous three candidates than I don’t believe he has a shot.

  • Jean-Marc in Canada

    Oh this just gets better and better.

  • Sam_Handwich

    same poll

    McGinty 47
    Toomey 44

    • Joe in PA

      yayayay

    • Hank

      May the coattails continue to pull McGinty further along!!!

  • Sam_Handwich

    Mrs. Clinton’s 90-1 lead among black voters suggests she could win a
    unanimous share of the vote in some precincts in west and north
    Philadelphia. No black respondent from Philadelphia supported Mr. Trump
    in the survey.

    http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/10/27/upshot/pennsylvania-poll.html

    • Treant

      Wait for the accusations of electoral fraud if that happens.

      “No way could Trump get zero votes in a district of 93 people!”

      “They’re all African-Americans.”

      “The blacks love the Trump!”

    • good shot green

      In 2012 there were districts in Philly that registered zero votes for Romney.

      • Reality.Bites

        Good districts. The best districts.

  • Reality.Bites

    No, it’s not a tight-rope walk. Despite the great and obvious danger, each tight-rope walk conducted in front of an audience has an overwhelming chance of success.

    A more apt description is a lottery win – extremely unlikely and utterly out of his control. He can do nothing now to increase his chances of winning. There were only ten tickets in this lottery and he handed her so many of his that now she has 10 and he has 1.

  • DumbHairyApe
  • Why the polls are so uncertain this year (current reliable polls at Real Clear Politics show Hillary’s lead anywhere from 1 – 14 points) is the uncertainty about whether or not certain groups are going to show up and vote in the same total percentages as the last two Presidential elections. The big questions are will the Democratic Coalition that turned out in such strong numbers in 2008 and 2012 to elect and reelect President Obama be sufficiently motivated to turn out to overcome what appears to be a very motivated base of white men without college degrees who, according to polls, are preferring Trump by 3-1? As Michael Moore so bluntly said, will the FU vote that has shocked the establishment in other countries (Brexit in the UK) show up in the USA and shock us all with a Trump vote? How motivated are the people at Trump rallies to show up at the voting booth? I think, however, the bottom line is that the states where Hillary is polling either well ahead (Virginia, Colorado, Pennsylvania) or mostly ahead (North Carolina, Florida, Nevada) have strong Obama Coalition bases (minority and lgbt voters for example) which should be enough to pull her ahead even if the “angry white vote” swings Iowa and Ohio back to the Trump Republicans.

  • Bruno

    Is Stein really at 3% in PA? Feh.

  • cleos_mom

    I wonder if anyone will admit to being “undecided” after the election.

  • sword

    Just another lyin’ poll…foisted on good Christian Amurikkkans.

  • andrew

    Why would 9% of the Pennsylvania voters cast their votes for Johnson and Stein, who have no chance of becoming president? Surely Clinton and Trump are not equally bad in their minds. One must be a bit better in their judgments. Why not help elect the one that is just “a bit” better, instead of allowing the worst of the two to become POTUS?