ARIZONA: New Monmouth Poll Shows Dead Heat

Politico reports:

Two weeks out from Election Day and Arizona is a toss-up, according to a Monmouth University poll released Tuesday afternoon. Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are deadlocked in Arizona, a state that has gone red in 15 of the last 16 presidential elections and where Trump leads by just 1 percentage point.

In a four-way race, Trump tops the field with 46 percent support among likely voters, followed by Clinton at 45 percent, Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson at 4 percent and Green Party candidate Jill Stein at 1 percent. Three percent of respondents are undecided.

Clinton has a 40-point advantage among the state’s non-white voters, 67 percent to 27 percent. Trump, however, has decisive leads with white voters (56 percent to 35 percent), including white men (64 percent to 26 percent) and white voters without a college degree (66 percent 28 percent).

The race is much tighter among white women and white college graduates, with Trump leading narrowly with white women (47 percent to 44 percent) and white college grads (45 percent to 43 percent).

  • LackofFaithify

    It’s a dry heat though.

    • another_steve

      Never understood the “dry heat” sell.

      Like…it’s 115 degrees outside but it’s a dry heat so it’s okay?

      • ShawnSwagger

        LOL. It really does make a difference in how the body “perceives” the heat. I’ve worked outdoors all over the country, and believe me, 90 degrees with 90% humidity in Louisiana is MUCH more miserable than 110 degrees in Arizona.

        • another_steve

          Thanks, Mason, for your reply…and yes, Shawn, I know from humidity. I live in Central Maryland, not far from the Chesapeake Bay — perhaps the major churner-out of humidity in the world.

          In August it’s a shvitzkite here.

          (Yiddish for “oy vey, terrible terrible humidity.”)

      • Mason

        When it’s dry and you sweat, the sweat easily evaporates so you feel comfortable. When it’s hot and humid, the air can’t hold much more water, so your sweat doesn’t evaporate fast and you stay hot

        • Rex

          I don’t know, I spent a month in Arizona in July. Over 100 degrees at 7 am. I carried baby powder with me as my neck got a rash from being constantly sweaty.

          • EweTaw

            Baby or talcum powder is absolutely necessary for keeping one’s crotch and butt crack in healthy order in triple digit heat. Actually, all year ’round. But especially in the heat.

      • Jafafa Hots

        In AZ you get a dry chafed spot in your groin.

        In FL you get a moist chafed spot in your groin that turns into whole-body rot and you need to go on antibiotics.

        • another_steve

          The last time I was in Florida there were these terrible Palmetto Bugs everywhere.

          What’s with that?

          Like…central casting from some Japanese horror movie flick?

          • NancyP

            The living is easy for the cockroaches (oops, palmetto bugs). They don’t get frozen out in the winter. Plenty to eat all year round. Something must eat palmetto bugs – lizards? Birds?

          • another_steve

            Lol. They belong, as do we all. 😉

            But only their mothers can truly love them…

            https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/af06aa7b4115ffffc09a2a5b7f36f4a0f9f8fd1f1ec08485109c7dd60a3273a9.jpg

          • wineflask

            Is this a reference to a famous Italian (actually, Neapolitan) saying? Ogni scarrafone e’ bello a mamma soa – every cockroaches is beautiful to his own mother.

          • another_steve

            Hon, the only difference between an Italian Catholic and an Eastern European Jew is the tomato sauce.

          • Nic Peterson

            You’re lucky they weren’t armed.

          • Nychta

            Well, we have palmetto bug cousins here in Phx: the American cockroach. They love my part of town, and I’m always shooing them out of the house. August is the worst month for them getting indoors. I dread the midsummer late-night rattle of roaches scuttling through the recycling bag. (shiver)

          • another_steve

            Oh hon… I grew up in New York City, Cockroach Capitol of the World.

            I grew up thinking the boys were my cousins.

          • Jafafa Hots

            “Palmetto bugs” is actually the polite name for them that Floridian developers invented. It’s true name is the American Cockroach… although it’s thought to have been brought over from Africa centuries ago.

            They ain’t “palmetto bugs,” that’s realtor-speak. They’re giant fucking cockroaches.

          • another_steve

            Ohmigod my husband’s college roommate lives in Jacksonville, and visiting him and his wife a few years ago, I stepped on one of the Palmettos in their basement.

            I’ll take the sound of that “squish” with me to my grave.

          • Joe in PA

            LOL, the “polite” name for them in Texas was (is?) “water bugs”. I have no idea why. IT’S A COCKROACH! 🙂

      • bsinps

        I live in Palm Springs. There is a big difference, especially when it’s 115°+. It’s a matter of dew point and humidity. Any moisture in the air when there’s extreme heat makes it more difficult to handle, the higher the moisture count. Dry heat or dry cold (meaning 0% of moisture in the air) makes it so much more tolerable. It could be 115° +/- but feel like 100° +/-.

        • another_steve

          The “…but feel like 100 degrees +/-” part gives me no particular solace.

          • bsinps

            It sounds bad and it is hot, but you won’t sweat or feel as uncomfortable as you would with a high dew point or humidity in the air. I’m acclimated after living here for 22yrs

          • another_steve

            Hear ya, bsinps.

            Truth is, we all acclimate to our individual circumstances. This is the way of nature.

            If you do not acclimate, you and yours do not thrive.

          • bsinps

            Absolutely

          • Reality.Bites

            I vacationed there once and have also been to Singapore and Hong Kong, which have similar temperatures but higher humidity than we’re used to in North America. It’s a palpable difference.

          • bsinps

            I agree. I’ve traveled all over and there are many places with much much higher humidity then we in Palm Springs ever gets.

      • CCleverly

        Heh Arizonians… have you had the opportunity to drive to the polls yet? Your car is air conditioned and so is your polling place 🙂

        • secretlab

          Mountain dweller here (much of the northern part of Arizona is high desert and mountain ranges). As I write this, outside temperature is 61 degrees. I voted by mail a week ago.

  • Lazycrockett
  • PickyPecker
  • Texndoc

    I thought Hillary led overwhelmingly with college graduates. Maybe not so much in AZ but certainly across the board.
    Does anybody find his schtick of walking up to an American flag on stage and hugging it to be cringeworthy demagogue behavior? https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ce966dbeab49c66d6ad1e611d72958a92d2d86d89f10baa55810d14ca3b7b505.jpg

    • Gustav2

      He is molesting the flag.

      • Texndoc

        It looks like something Goebells would tell him to do. I mean Bannon.

      • bkmn

        And staining it orange.

      • clay

        He’s imagining it’s his daughter.

      • SunsetGay

        He is grabbing that flag by the pussy.

        • Steverino

          And trying to find the throat to stick his tongue down.

    • bkmn

      Almost everything about Trump is creep-inducing.

    • Blake Jordan

      Did someone draw a 🐱 on it…

    • Rex

      Interesting that he can embrace it and shit on it at the same time.

      • coram nobis

        Is that flag defecation?

      • EweTaw

        He’s wiping his ass with it.

        • KarenAtFOH

          No, that was the Constitution.

    • pj

      creepy…..because you know he dosent give a shit about the flag or the country.

    • Reality.Bites

      I wonder how hard he had to look to find one that was made in China.

  • Elagabalus

    At least The Donald can still count on winning good ole Dixie, where he’s still as popular as Robert E. Lee, and for the same reasons.

    • Jonty Coppersmith

      Not all of Dixie it appears, he’ll lose VA and NC, and it’s supposed to be quite close in TX.

  • moebym

    Personal anecdote: AZ was actually the first state I lived in after moving to the US – even if it was only for a short time – so I have a fondness for it. I will be thrilled if it turns blue.

  • Oikos

    It always amazes me that anyone who went to college would hear drumpf and say “Yeah, I’m going to vote for that guy.”

    • EweTaw

      Liberdee University students are creaming their pants for the Cheeto Horror.

      • djcoastermark

        True, but then I never considered LU to be a real college, much less a place of higher learning either.

        • EweTaw

          Oral Roberts U? (lol!)

    • Bruno

      Harvard on the Highway. Route 10 Tech. That’s what my social studies teacher used to say about certain college educations.

    • Steverino

      Trump University.

  • Lazycrockett
    • moebym

      Mwahahahaha!

    • coram nobis

      I love the smell of schadenfreude in the morning. Smells like — victory.

    • skyweaver

      Karma karma karma karma karma chameeleeon

      • Snarkaholic

        That scum must go
        That scum must goooooooooooo!

    • MichaelJ

      Unfortunately, it looks like Rubio is going to get re-elected, along with McCain. The two of them may have forfeited their dignity, but in doing so they have acquiesced to Trump for his supporters’ votes.

  • “Trump, however, has decisive leads with white voters..”

    Not this white voter—or any of his friends and family (even those who traditionally vote Republican.)

  • Rex

    Those white women in Arizona should really brush up on current events. What the hell are they thinking?

    • bzrd

      thinking?????? thinking?????
      I’ll tell you what they’re thinking,
      “I haven’t had my pussy grabbed in years, sigh, if only.”

  • Luis De California

    AZ Democrats already announced a plan to turn Jan Brewer’s “Latinos don’t vote” into an ad. Let’s hope it works.

    I would love to see blue on all sides of California.

    Bonus points would be McCain out and Arpaio losing re-election right before the court tosses him in a cell for contempt.

    • Anastasia Beaverhousen

      i am leaving for AZ tomorrow.. Do you think if I did the Madonna offer it would help the cause?

    • MichaelJ

      It’s unfortunate, but it looks like McCain is going to get re-elected. Ditto for Rubio. The two of them may have forfeited their dignity, but in doing so they have acquiesced to Trump for his supporters’ votes.

  • PickyPecker

    OT: TheNation: WI A City Clerk Opposed an Early-Voting Site at UW–Green Bay Because ‘Students Lean More Toward the Democrats’

    https://www.thenation.com/article/city-clerk-opposed-early-voting-site-at-uw-green-bay-because-students-lean-more-toward-the-democrats/

    • ShawnSwagger

      This same kind of thing has been happening in college towns in Ohio for several election cycles now.

      • Gustav2

        Now, now, just because Franklin County (Columbus) puts the one early polling place a long bus ride away from the OSU campus doesn’t mean a thing. /s

        • ShawnSwagger

          I think the shenanigans that the Republicans pulled in Kent, Athens and Bowling Green back in 2008 & 2012 were the ones that made the papers. But I was impressed with the determination and fortitude of the students to vote. Some of them stood in line for 3 or 4 hours, as I recall.

          • Gustav2

            2004 was the worst year, it has gotten steadily better as more court judgments have come through.

    • SoCalGal20

      One thing I want Hillary and/or SCOTUS to fix is this bullshit. The fucking Republicans have the nerve to scream “Voter Fraud!” at every turn. Fuck the Republican Party. I hope they are utterly decimated on election day.

      • Rex

        Fuck the Republican Party, well, I for one don’t have the time or inclination, but I don’t think you mean that literally.

        • SoCalGal20

          Haha, yes, I mean it in the figurative sense. Now, if you can actually fuck some Republicans and get them to vote Dem, more power to you! 😉

  • TexasBoy

    “…white voters without a college degree (66 percent 28 percent).”

    Ah, yes, his beloved under-educated Americans.

    • RemusL

      Not under-educated. He loves the “poorly-educated”.

  • another_steve

    I’m looking forward to the tacos. Still concerned, though, as to where the truck can park here.

    There’s a cow pasture across the way, and the cows probably won’t like it.

    • Ben in Oakland

      not if they are beef tacos.

  • bkmn

    The good thing is that polls tend to undersample eligible Latino voters, so there is a good chance HRC will do better than this poll implies.

    • Elagabalus

      I hear Latino voter registration is up 99% in Florida. Let’s hope the same is true for Arizona.

      • ShawnSwagger

        Early voting in AZ so far shows an increase. Democrats outnumber Republicans 44% to 31% on early ballots returned. At this point in 2012, it was 38% D to 35% R. So something is changing.

        Of course, it could just be that Democrats are just more eager for this election to be over with already and are voting earlier, while the Trump crowd wants to drag it out and savor it.

    • Jonty Coppersmith

      Her ground game for turnout might increase her totals a couple percent. I keep hearing Trump has no ground game.

      • KarenAtFOH

        He’s having no trouble running the GOP into the ground.

      • bkmn

        Trump has ZERO offices in Arizona if what I saw earlier is correct.

  • LovesIrony

    trump leads with those edicateted at bible collageses, skewing to results.

  • EweTaw

    “Come on Sea Biscuit!!”

  • clay

    But every time they use “likely voters” means that they’re likely under-sampling Hispanics.

    It is tight, but it is still possible for Hillary.

    • Reality.Bites

      I am counting on a big under sampling of minorities to push us to greater results than we dare openly hope for.

  • Treant

    OT, but file this under “holy shit”: More discussion of Trump’s involvement with–and drugging of–underage girls.

    http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/10/24/inside-donald-trump-s-one-stop-parties-attendees-recall-cocaine-and-very-young-models.html

    ETA: Please repost this article anywhere you can think of. It might sink him with mothers and fathers of girls, and I really want Georgia this cycle.

    • Ernest Endevor

      Horrifying, disgusting, sleazy, and boring, all at the same time. Essential reading.

    • coram nobis

      We’ve had public figures like this before. Nero, Caligula and Tiberius come to mind.

  • Priya Lynn

    Wasn’t Hillary leading in Arizona recently?

    • Treant

      Yes. Arizona is a swing state this election.

      Let that sink in for a moment. Arizona, North Carolina, Georgia, Texas, and Iowa are swing states.

      • JesterRedPanda

        to be fair, NC is often a swing state. Obama one time, Mitt another. I wish it was more progressive here, but for the most part, the cities, especially around the larger college campuses can be intensely progressive

  • Sam_Handwich
    • safari

      Even after she kinda sorta threw him under the bus.

      • Jean-Marc in Canada

        And that fact alone should make it clear just how dangerous he thinks Trump is.

      • Bruno

        I don’t see it as her throwing him under the bus. She was being investigated, and she answered questions truthfully. She didn’t publicize her answers regarding Powell AFAIK; they were leaked at some point or the FBI decided to reveal his role in the investigation for some reason. I don’t think she blamed him in any way either, at least not to my knowledge.

  • Blake J Butler

    O/T: Marco Rubio gets mercilessly booed off the stage at a festival in orlando.

    He tried to win support from the Puerto rican community and the boos rained out a handful of supporters.

    https://youtu.be/FeyHIQh_BL0

    http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2016/10/25/1586766/-Watch-Marco-Rubio-get-mercilessly-booed-off-the-stage-at-a-festival-in-Orlando?detail=facebook

  • AtticusP

    It’s starting to look like Donald Trump and Mike Pence are uniters!

    A growing number of Americans like us are united in hoping that, when these two long weeks are over, we will not have to see or hear from them ever again.

    With Pence, I think we have a shot. The Donald on the other hand?

    He’s just Sarah Palin with a YUUUGGE bank account and a tiny dick.

    A tiny, tiny dick.

    A dicklet, really.

    • bzrd

      OPM

  • Ninja0980

    O/T but the hubby and I are back to reality after an amazing week in Florida.
    I want to go back to Disney World already.

    • djcoastermark

      It is easy to get caught up in that wonderful world and forget the rest of the planet for a bit. The come down afterwards is hell. Just hydrate, eat well and get plenty of rest.

  • ShawnSwagger

    New ABC/Washington Post poll just out: Hillary +12 nationwide!

    Interesting tidbit from that poll – Trump is now -4 among college-educated white men and -33 among college-educated white women.

    • Bruno

      I have to say, I can’t look at polls like tRump +1 in Arizona, tRump leading in Ohio, and Clinton +1 in North Carolina and think this race is at +12 Hillary. Polling has kind of been all over the place in this election though.

      • Patrick Thomas

        Go to fivethirtyeight.com – it has the best, clearest statistical analysis on the race(s). (She’s up +12 nationwide because in big states like New York, California and Illinois she is up by very large margins.)

        • Bruno

          Actually, 538 says she’s up by more like 7 or 8.

          • Patrick Thomas

            538 isn’t a polling company. They aggregate and weight many polls, create statistical models, run simulations based on those models and determine the probabilities of different outcomes. Currently, in their “polls-plus” model (which includes historical precedence and economic conditions), Hillary has an 83% chance of winning the election. The “polls-only model” puts her at an 85.4% favorite.

          • Bruno

            I know what 538 is. Their aggregate is Clinton +6 or +7. You shouldn’t assume people don’t know as much as you do.

          • Patrick Thomas

            Apologies. Not my intention at all. I’ve just never seen a place on 538 where they give an aggregate average of polls, only the probabilities. (Plus a lot of other interesting graphical representations of election possibilities.)

          • Bruno

            They talk about where they think the race is by aggregate of all the polls they use a lot in different articles and posts. Sorry I was snippish about it. I’m not sure there’s an actual aggregate section per se either, so I understand.

  • Bruno

    Arizona is certainly a nailbiter and a toss-up, but this poll is actually not so great. Monmouth tends to be a little Dem leaning…so tRump being up by 1 could mean he’s up by a bit more. But November will be the real poll.

    • Ninja0980

      Indeed, several polls from Monmouth haven’t been good for us and the news of the ACA certainly won’t help.

      • Bruno

        The health insurance companies are certainly doing their best to sabotage the ACA and the Dems. Unfortunately, I don’t think we’ll get the personnel in Congress we need to fight that.

        • Ninja0980

          They are indeed, the only question will be if it cost us a Senate Majority.

          • Bruno

            I think there’s a batch of Senate candidates for Dems that have just been too underwhelming. Especially McGinty and of course Strickland. That’s more what I’d blame than health insurance companies if Dems don’t take the Senate.

          • Ninja0980

            I agree with Mcginty.
            If she was stronger, Toomey would be toast.

          • Bruno

            I also don’t know why Hassan hasn’t pulled ahead of Ayotte. I’m not really familiar with her. It seems like all these Dem candidates have low profiles and low media appeal.

        • Circ09

          I’m hopeful it will hurt the insurance companies in the long run. It lays more groundwork towards single payer. We all knew ACA was a stop-gap. And politically it is untenable to go backwards to young adults under 25 or pre-existing conditions not being covered.

  • karmanot

    May Dump be dead and Hillary the heat.

  • Cipher