REUTERS: Hillary Will Win With 326 Electoral Votes

Reuters reports:

Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton maintained her commanding lead in the race to win the Electoral College and claim the U.S. presidency, according to the latest States of the Nation project results released on Saturday.

In the last week, there has been little movement. Clinton leads Donald Trump in most of the states that Trump would need should he have a chance to win the minimum 270 votes needed to win. According to the project, she has a better than 95 percent chance of winning, if the election was held this week. The mostly likely outcome would be 326 votes for Clinton to 212 for Trump.

Trump came off his best debate performance of the campaign Wednesday evening but the polling consensus still showed Clinton winning the third and final face-off on prime-time TV. Trump disputes those findings.

And some national polls had the race tightening a wee bit this week though others had Clinton maintaining her solid lead. But the project illustrates that the broader picture remains bleak for Trump with 17 days to go until the Nov. 8 election.

  • Lazycrockett
    • another_steve

      Thank you, Lazycrockett.

      I scrolled down this comment thread specifically looking for Bobbing Yellow Hillary.

      • gaymex1

        I would so happily place that on my car dash if I could. I would smile all the way to the wine store.

        • David L. Caster

          A Hillary bobble head.

          • gaymex1

            Kinda hard to come by in the Yucatan, but I’d love it with her doing the yellow dress shimmy.

  • bkmn
  • fastlanestranger

    Trump will say, “She got 326 votes, people. If you think about it, there are 365 days in a year. I think you know where I’m going with the folks.” And his fans will scream and chear.

  • Lazycrockett

    Well Drumpf lasted bout 4 minutes of being almost rational before calling Hillary a crook and throwing her in prison. Good try though.

  • Michael Smith

    His “best” performance should be called his “least awful”. And even that’s subjective considering he called his opponent a “nasty woman”.

  • MikeBx2

    He used the term “bad hombres”, called our former First Lady, US Senator and Sec. of State a “nasty woman” and refused to say whether he’d accept the outcome of the election. But that was his best debate performance. Got it.

    • another_steve

      If the bar for Trump were any lower, they’d have to build a trench for it.

      • Oscarlating Wildely

        And if sinks any lower in the trenches, they’ve have to build a bar for us to deal with him.
        Here ’til Tuesday.

      • JW Swift

        An upside-down wall!

        • thatotherjean

          That would be a ha-ha. They have them in Britain, to keep the livestock confined without blocking the view from your manor house.

  • j.martindale
  • Oscarlating Wildely

    Oh wait, Trump may have a tantrum and demand that he’s really winning https://media.giphy.com/media/gsB6FLbfd5OtG/giphy-downsized-large.gif

    • bkmn

      Everyone knows it is just a matter of time for that.

  • Lazycrockett

    “All these liars will be sued after the election” That’s not very Gettysburg.

  • Ninja0980

    Let’s not rest on our laurels.
    You know Russia, WikiLeaks, O’Keefe and other deplorables will do everything they can to suppress the vote and hurt Democrats.
    I think they have been tuned out but you know the horse race folks will do their damn best to ensure otherwise.
    Not to mention we need to vote blue all down ticket or we will simply have four more years of obstruction.
    Three weeks is still a very, very long time.

  • MikeBx2

    She’ll go higher, he’ll go lower.

    • Oh’behr

      Hopefully Trump will dig his own hole into the dirt and keep going lower and lower. Maybe he’ll end up in Russia or China.

  • james1200

    This was 2008: http://politicalmaps.org/wp-content/uploads/2008/11/2008-election-map-nytimes.png

    And this was 2012: http://i400.photobucket.com/albums/pp88/thatone2008/New%20Maps/townhall.png

    And she’s projected to do worse than Obama against the orange-faced Führer? Christ!

    • bkmn

      Trump will say that makes him better than McLame and Rmoney.

    • Michael Smith

      This is actually a conservative projection. The average I’ve seen is 340 electoral votes.

    • Oscarlating Wildely

      If AZ and IA stays red, and she gets the expected states (including OH, NC, VA, and FL) she’s at 325. If she gets those two, she’s at 340 (1 EC vote for ME, NE, whatevs, is floating somewhere in there). If GA actually turns, she at 356, and we’re all laughing our asses off.

      • Robincho

        Well, I hope they grow back, because BIG party at my place, and we’ll probably end up needing ’em… 😉

    • Bruno

      I think there’s still a good chance she takes Iowa and Arizona, though not Indiana.

      • clay

        I want Georgia, Alaska, (not Utah) and Missouri, as well.
        But I’m a greedy bastard.

        • Bruno

          Maybe if the race moves more towards her in the last few weeks, it’s definitely possible. I think Georgia is going to be for Dems like Pennsylvania is for Rethugs…dangling carrot type of state. Alaska would be a fluke and Missouri who knows.

    • Ross

      On this same day in 2012, 538 forecast Obama with 290 EV.

      So, I expect Hillary, too, will rise during the next few weeks.

    • LovesIrony

      your face, it was apricot ♫

  • Tor

    Please, dog, make it go away.

  • Treant

    At this point, I want Trump under 200 and Clinton at 338 or better. So keep working ’cause Daddy don’t like it when he’s disappointed.

    • JW Swift

      Indeed. If anyone is thinking that it is safe to stay home and not vote, you should rethink that stance.

      We need to make this MORE than a landslide in order to send a message to the people who support Trump and his policies and attitudes towards those he despises. This should NOT be what America stands for.

      • Ninja0980

        Indeed, the Republican party helped create Trump, they need to go down with him.

    • Carl

      Looks like they’re projecting Arizona and Iowa will go red after all. It’s nice that we don’t have to sweat the outcome of this election, but we also can say for a a fact there’s still a lot of people willing to follow a lunatic off a cliff.

    • I want her to get at least 380. It’s completely silly and almost petty, but Bill got 379 in his 1996 re-election and I think Hillary has had to put up with an awful lot.

      And then, separate from that, I think a high 400+ blowout might really be what the GOP needs to do some real soul searching. But they won’t. They’ll see Trump as an anomaly and go back to back to debating whether they want another Bush or a Ted Cruz evangelical.

      • Dana Chilton

        Nate silver has her winning Arizona and Iowa and Ohio none of which this forecast has her winning

      • Nic Peterson

        No soul to search in the GOP.

      • sfbob

        The GOP did some soul-searching after the 2012 election. We can see the result of that whole fifteen minutes of work by looking at this year’s candidate.

  • stuckinthewoods

    This 326 is States of the Nation. Electoral Vote = 334, 538 = 339, Sabato = 352

  • bkmn

    It is shameful that he is even getting one electoral college vote.

    • stuckinthewoods

      “Five-Thirty Eight or Fight”…well, it worked for Polk.

      • Kruhn

        It’s 58″40° or fight! But point taken.

        • Robincho

          54, not 58…

          • Kruhn

            You’re right! That is what happens when you attempt boring people half asleep! Touché

  • Henry Auvil
    • Ross

      I love this image of Hillary.

      • Henry Auvil

        Annie Leibovitz, 1993

    • JayRock

      Gorgeous. Thank God we’ll finally have a woman in there

    • HanyBaal

      Also like her pic above. Nice to see GOLDen tones defeat Trump.

  • Natty Enquirer

    It’s still astonishing that 2 out of 5 electors would favor a pouting, vindictive narcissist with no governing experience and few, if any, concrete governing proposals.

    • Robincho

      Electors favor whom they are told to favor…

    • Nasty Girl Brianna

      Racism is a hell of a drug.

      • Mike__in_Houston

        Not to mention sexism. I still shudder when I think of Nate Silver’s map showing how this election would be shaping up if only men could vote. There are still far too many Americans who think that the office of President can only be occupied by a white male, no matter how inexperienced, unqualified, or temperamentally unfit for the job that white male might be.

  • Skeptical_Inquirer

    I’m sad that the GOP candidate has to be so obviously unqualified and frightening for the electoral votes to be like this. The GOP should have zero after Darth Cheney.

    Also, I’m also done with my mail-in ballot and will be shipping it out today.

  • PickyPecker
  • TuuxKabin
    • bzrd

      that wascally wabbit sure knows how to dance

      now we need the opera, where’s BillBear ?

  • TuuxKabin
  • MikeBx2

    I’ve been reading all morning that his Gettysburg speech was going to be about his first 100 days in office. Didn’t realize this is what they meant…
    https://twitter.com/JohnJHarwood/status/789864045730037760

    • I guess Ivanka had better lawyer up, since years ago she admitted her father liked to ‘burst in’ on young teenage girls while they were changing clothes.

      • clay

        They’ll use the Donald J. Trump (legal defense) Foundation lawyers.

    • Ross

      There is also that pesky little detail of…Trump admitting to sexual assault on the now infamous Pussycat tape.

      Yep, that will sure help his case in court.

      Yep.

      • bzrd

        maybe before court

      • another_steve

        Lol. Exactly. He’s on tape acknowledging that he engaged in the same exact behaviors his accusers are now accusing him of. Plus, in a court of law the defendants would produce a ton of women (and men, too) who would step forward to corroborate the victims’ stories by describing what they saw.

        He’ll never sue because he knows he’d lose.

        Huuugely.

    • TampaDink

      Don the con’s Gettysburg address:
      “Four whores & seven bankruptcies ago…”

  • JoeMyGod
    • Bruno

      One thing I’ve noticed is there hasn’t really been any good, reputable polling in Iowa for over a month now. All we’ve had mostly are the strange small-sampling state polls done by Google Consumer Surveys, SurveyMonkey, CVOTER, and Ipsos (which actually has Clinton leading now and is probably the best of these types of polls at these point). There is also a poll from the Times Picayune which has Clinton comfortably ahead, but I don’t know how reputable those polls are as they’ve started up only in the last couple weeks. I’d like to see some really good pollsters get back into Iowa now.

      • clay

        The rate of change for McMullin means I want at least weekly polls out of Utah this year, as well.

        • ShawnSwagger

          He’s only on the ballot in a few states, though. Similarly, I just found out yesterday Jill Stein didn’t make the ballot in Georgia.

          • Bruno

            She’s not on the ballot in North Carolina or Nevada either.

          • Skeptical_Inquirer

            Aside from her positions, that’s a terrible way to run a campaign. At least McMullin has the excuse as running as a Trump spoiler & a sop for GOPers’ conscience.

          • Ninja0980

            Which is good because she can’t take away votes from Hillary.

          • Bruno

            I saw a recent Florida poll had her at .8% of the vote there. If that’s correct, doesn’t look like another NaderBot frenzy.

          • Guest

            There is a righty plan for him to only be in enough states to deny both the electoral votes to toss it to the Republican house where they could pick anyone, even lying Paul Ryan.

            I don’t the plan would work since Hillary could have such a large win, the right would never have their chance. I would submit that the main point here is that as always the right are masters at lying and cheating. The fact they even thought of this, even talked about it, even considered it proves their demand for power and further proves their putting said power, their party over the people, the Constitution, the country, their claimed religious principles.

          • Ninja0980

            Indeed, the problem for Republicans is most of the states McMullin is on the ballot in are deep red states so the only person who will be more likely to lose in this scenario is Trump and the Republicans.

          • Gene B

            Congress can’t “pick anyone.” If the election is thrown to the house, they must choose between the three Presidential candidates who received the most Electoral votes.

      • Guest

        Iowa almost always picks the winner in the general.

        Also, there is good polling that Georgia will go blue. There is less reliable polling that Utah may, just may go blue. Both states would have a high number of split ballots so Hillary’s coattails would not occur there. Would that not be pantsuit leg cuffs?

        • ShawnSwagger

          I think Utah will go independent. Trump is nosediving in Utah and McMullin is rising fast, but Clinton’s numbers haven’t really budged there.

        • Bruno

          Iowa missed in 1976, 1988 and 2000. Ohio hasn’t missed in that time, and Nevada not since 1976. I do think Hillary gets all 3, but not Georgia unless tRump continues the freefall.

          • clay

            Georgia could go freefall if the Southern Baptist Ladies’ Auxiliary says “Fuck this shit”. Exactly how much more would it take to get them there?

          • Bruno

            Southern Baptist ladies? Best we can hope is they stay home. They won’t vote for babykillur Hellary!!!111!1

          • Herald

            Not much – many are already there

          • Jonty Coppersmith

            You know what it would take for the fine ladies to wake up? They would have to wake up to suddenly find themselves of a much darker complexion. Sorry excuses for Christians they are.

    • ShawnSwagger

      And Texas, Georgia and Alaska are close enough in some polls that they’re not inconceivable.

      • McSwagg

        I’ve started seeing Hillary ads in Houston on the local evening news, so it’s a local ad buy.

        • J Ascher

          Her ad has run in Austin, too. I think she did an ad-buy in major Texas cities as a GOTV move.

    • Oh’behr

      I wish they’d make those maps by electoral population, so states would be by electoral votes, not physical size. States with lower outcome wouldn’t see so large in perspective.

      https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/9cecfd25d49cc1c56614fbf006bc8ad63a93eb1fbd4d9b56ad92281798a2c5fe.jpg

  • ShawnSwagger

    Good. But I have one point I disagree on.

    I don’t know why some people keep saying that Wednesday’s was his best debate performance. Although all three were bad, I thought it was the worst of all three for him. He did manage to stay “sedated”, as Erick Erickson put it, for the first 30 minutes, but then for the 60 minutes, he couldn’t answer a single question posed to him by Wallace. And his “answers” were just incoherent ramblings all over the place that you couldn’t even untangle. I was listening and wondering how anyone could follow any of it. Maybe I’m just not remembering well how bad the first two were because the third is fresher in my memory, but that was my impression.

    • another_steve

      Everything is relative. He didn’t physically stalk her as he did during the second debate. At least for the first 15 minutes, his words sounded vaguely policy-related. More minutes of that than in the first two debates.

      Also, his snorting and sniffling were at a minimum during the third debate. His handlers must have hidden his cocaine during the five days leading up to the debate.

  • Ninja0980

    https://twitter.com/aravosis/status/789863228738269184
    That’ll do wonders with the female voter.

    • clay

      . . . and that 13 year old for prostitution, most likely.

    • So he’s going with the Cosby strategy. Good luck with that. Really helped the guy’s career and future prospects to avoid ruin and jail…

    • Herald

      That just keeps this scandal in the headlines and has him looking more and more guilty. Plus, just imagine what the other lawyers can do to trump during Discovery! Delicious!!

      • Discovery phase is why Trump will never go through with it. He’s only ever followed through on his slander lawsuit threats a few times, and has lost every time.

        Mostly he uses the threat of being sued to bully others to surrender to his demands. Ain’t gonna work this time because these women either can afford attorneys or have pro bono representation.

    • ShawnSwagger

      LOL. And he chooses to make these threats in Gettysburg! If some writer put that in a screenplay, the critics would call it hamfisted symbolism, but Trump is stranger than fiction.

      • TampaDink

        He planned to begin with…
        “four whores & seven leers ago…” but he misplaced his notes.

    • GayOldLady

      He’s a bully freak. It’s the same strategy that Bill Cosby used until women started pouring out of the woodwork. Admittedly to this point Cosby’s crimes against women are worse than Trump’s, but groping women without consent is sexual assault, even if he thinks it’s unimportant.

    • secretlab

      I’m no longer disturbed by Trump’s pathological lying. I am still very disturbed by his supporter’s reactions to the lies.

  • andrew

    I’m not surprised that Hillary is the predicted winner. I am stunned that a narcissistic demagogue like Trump, has fooled enough voters to be predicted to win 212 electoral votes.

    • BudClark

      I hope people are angry enough at the past eight years of Republican obstruction to turn the fire hoses on FULL and cleanse the ENTIRE Aegean Stables that sit atop Capitol Hill in Washington, DC. You couldn’t even grow kdzu in that toxic muck!

  • EweTaw

    326 votes? That’s like a whole bunch, right?

    • TuuxKabin

      sorta.

      • Treant

        Kinda.

    • MikeBx2

      I think they’re being conservative and she’ll do better. Obama got 365 in ’08 and 332 in ’12.

      • JCF

        This!

    • OdieDenCO

      it’s enought

  • Ninja0980

    Just wait until James O’Keefe’s next highly edited video comes out though!
    It will doom Hillary and Donna Brazille for sure, just like the last two did.
    Oh wait…

  • Hryflex

    I get Rasmussen spam at work. I usually delete it, but yesterday I looked at it. I wonder why their results are so far off from all the other polls? http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2016/white_house_watch_oct21

    • Bruno

      There are actually 3 tracking polls that have tRump ahead that are published daily:
      – the infamous USC/LA Times poll which has used the same sample of 3000 voters since the summer and unfortunately it’s a tRump-loving sample
      -the new IBD/TIPP poll which I have no idea about since they just started up a week or so ago
      -Rasmussen. I truly believe that Scott Rasmussen polls his family in his living room every night, then throws the result away and makes up a number that he believes will best serve Rethuglican purposes. Same methodology they’ve had in the past.

      • DenveRyk

        Just a minor point of info: Scott Rasmussen sold the polling outfit a couple of years back. But the methodology is still pretty much the same and it remains a fave among the cons.

    • clay

      Rasmussen doesn’t poll by racial/ethnic identity and relies too heavily on land lines– They’re particularly off in African-American heavy, Hispanic heavy, and Hispanic growth regions. And they have to correct for age and sex.

      • Skeptical_Inquirer

        Also, I think that the fringy cranks are more likely to pick up the phone. I have a landline but I ALWAYS let it go to voice mail unless it’s work.

        • clay

          They claim to correct for that, but with only age, gender, and political affiliation data, not ethnicity/race (landlines are much less popular with Hispanics).

          • Skeptical_Inquirer

            The problem with “correcting” is all the assumptions one has in correcting it. It’s only going to get worse with time as more people go cell phone only.

  • Skeptical_Inquirer

    OT but it’s actually pretty funny. A whole bunch of tweets about Obama and Biden as besties.

    https://www.buzzfeed.com/robinedds/wave-at-the-people-joe?utm_term=.nflwEwxOp#.cx7p4pAea

    • Treant

      “Bro.”

  • ShawnSwagger

    The other factor that Reuters fails to mention is that early voting has already begun in many states. And what we do know about the early voting is looking very good for Hillary, even in Ohio.

    http://www.cleveland.com/politics/index.ssf/2016/10/hillary_clinton_touts_early_vo.html#incart_river_home_pop
    http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/donald-trump-early-voting-clinton-229835

  • Ross

    On this same day in 2012, Obama was forecast by 538 with 290 Electoral votes.

    He won with 332.

    Today, 538 has their Now-cast with Hillary at 334 Electoral votes.

    Electoral-vote.com also has her with 334, but a few days ago she was at 350.

    I anticipate Hillary doing ever better, but she is nonetheless way ahead of the 270 needed to win. Indeed, she always has been.

    • clay

      At this point, I’m becoming vindictive (like Trump) and want McMullin to strip Trump of votes, even if Hillary can’t win them.

  • PLAINTOM

    Make it so !

  • Ninja0980
    • Skeptical_Inquirer

      I think that he’s forgetting that for many people, Trump is a a celebrity and a figure more like Freddie Krueger, a horror figure that scares you by giving you nightmares.

      • Treant

        I once went as Alan Carter from Space 1999. Not because I wanted him to be President, but because at age 8 I just knew I wanted to be inside Alan Carter. And if the only way to do that was to wear his mask, I could work with that.

    • Bill Mitchell is an absolute lunatic. The shit he posts daily is funny on in how incredibly wrong he is — plus he makes shit up.

    • sherman

      He also leads in pinata sales.

    • Homo Erectus

      I still have my Dubya mask. I use it to scare small children.

  • ShawnSwagger

    Warning, Floridians. You are forecast to get the brunt of Hurricane Trump for the next 2 weeks.

    http://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2016/10/trump-plans-7-city-fla-tour-as-clinton-busts-out-bubba-barack-and-j-lo-next-week-106635

    • Ninja0980

      In a way this could be good for us.
      The more unhinged he becomes, the harder it will be for Rubio to run away from him.

      • ShawnSwagger

        Yep. I also interpret this as the Trump campaign conceding Pennsylvania, Ohio and North Carolina, since those are the only other states where they had any kind of ground operations and media buys.

    • Phil in FLL

      Trump avoids Fort Lauderdale and surrounding Broward County because we are the bluest county in Florida. But you’re right that Trump has just about become a Florida resident at this point.

      • TampaDink

        I think that happened way back when he bought Mar-A-Lago in 1985.

    • Homo Erectus

      On the bright side, we’ll probably get to see a lot more of Barack and Michelle as well as the first female president.

  • DKos, 538 and HuffPo put the current prediction to be more like 340 EV +/- a few. Some models are at 325-ish still.

    But don’t forget: Trumpy still has two more weeks to keep driving his numbers down.

    • Ninja0980

      Let’s just hope he takes more Republicans with him.
      As it stands, the Republican in my district is likely to win reelection because folks think he’s a moderate. bleh.

    • BudClark

      Not if somebody should just HAPPEN to shove him (fat ass first) into a wood-chipper and put it on “frenzy”. I’m not a violent person, but TRUMP could destroy the civilized WORLD in less than a YEAR if he set his “mind” to it.

  • Nasty Girl Brianna

    Insert standard finger wagging complacency comment here.

    • Tiger Quinn

      Okay, but what have you done BESIDES this? Surely this isn’t it.

    • JCF

      [“Insert standard finger”: Must.Not.Say.Anything.Lewd!]

      Yes. ITA.

  • Sam

    Now, just need to elect enough Democrats to retake the Senate and, maybe, the House.

  • Herald

    OT but this just confirms how incredible Clinton supporters are. From an interesting Twitter study Huf Post did.
    http://data.huffingtonpost.com/2016/we-the-tweeple https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/35f6f87eaab244b75273d47fc68dd24ff1f09264bb6ebd5be1bbf7c664fd6b4a.jpg

  • Ninja0980

    https://twitter.com/jonfavs/status/789868862716063744
    I’ll have whatever she’s smoking, be one hell of a trip.

    • Bruno

      You can be sure among Laura Ingraham types, the post-mortem on Donald tRump will be that he didn’t get ready enough for prime time in time. Not that he’s a fascist, racist sexual predator who gives narcissism a new level of meaning.

  • LovesIrony

    How’s that Garland stall looking for you now, you fucking obstructionist assholes.

  • Skeptical_Inquirer

    I think that one of the major problems with the GOP is how much control think tanks and the like have over them. One day, I would love for The Heritage Foundation to be utterly powerless and gutted.

    https://www.buzzfeed.com/rosiegray/heritage-foundation-recruiting-via-email-for-potential-trump?utm_term=.laRlwl04K#.hnM9n9JbD

  • Jean-Marc in Canada

    Excellent news. Here’s hoping come election day it proves to be higher, just to spite Trumplethinskin.

  • Oscarlating Wildely

    Somewhat O/T but par for the course: “Emmett Till memorial sign scarred by bullet holes”

    http://www.cnn.com/2016/10/22/us/mississippi-emmett-till-sign-bullets/
    325 EC? At times, shocked it’s that high.

    • Oh’behr

      I saw that in the news too. That saddens me that some people have so much hate to shoot up his sign(s) years later. Disgusting.

      • BudClark

        I remember his mother insisting on an open-casket funeral, and people screaming and fainting when they saw what he rednecks had done to him.

  • kirtanloorii

    Bold prediction, but I like it.

  • TampaDink

    oops. wrong place for post. moved, left no forwarding address

  • Dana Chilton

    I have her at 379

  • Eric Lewis

    Don’t Gloat Vote. (please – I can’t handle the stress)

  • Bad Tom
  • Homo Erectus

    Vote anyway.

  • JellyDonut

    I think it will be slightly higher

  • JellyDonut

    early voting is open! I voted last week 🙂

  • David Kerlick

    My goto is election.princeton.edu Sam Wang has more statistical chops than Nate Silver. He’s projecting 336 EV which also hasn’t changed much. Drumpf is stil at base 40% (loses) and most of HRCs gains come from former undecided/3rd party voters, as is typical.

    • BudClark

      I hope he takes Hitler’s way out when he loses. Evil, EVIL, man (?)!!!

  • jonfromcalifornia

    This kind of news might make Democrats too complacent to vote but on the other hand, I hope it is true.

    • BudClark

      Already voted … straight (pardon me!) blue ticket!

  • houstonray
  • BudClark

    “SO LET IT BE WRITTEN; SO LET IT BE DONE!”

  • JCF

    Not.High.Enough!!!!

    Steve Schmidt said “north of 400”: let’s do THAT!!!

  • B Snow

    I will be ashamed for my country if he gets over 200 electoral votes. Well, more ashamed than I already am, for him getting this far in the first place.