CONVENTION BOUNCE: Hillary +15 In New National Poll

Slate reports:

Somewhere in Pennsylvania, Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton smiles a cautious smile. All right: we do not actually know that that is what she’s doing. But we can imagine it might be so because the first post-Democratic National Convention poll shows Clinton 15 points ahead of her political rival, Republican nominee Donald Trump.

The poll comes from RABA Research, a bipartisan polling firm, which conducted an online nationwide survey the Friday following the convention. Among likely voters, Clinton is now polling at 46 percent; Donald Trump, 31 percent. Libertarian Gary Johnson’s polling at seven percent; the Green Party’s Jill Stein, two. (The day after the Republican National Convention, RABA had Clinton and Trump at 39 and 34, respectively.)

  • Pohaku

    The Houston Chronicle, who endorsed Romney in 2012, endorsed her 24 hours after the DNC convention ended. It said they were endorsing early because Trump was a “danger to the Republic”. This coming from Texas. Get your life jackets on. A tsunami is coming.

    • Bruno

      That type of thing will come in handy with centrist and moderate Republicans and perhaps those a little more to the right like Romney types. But let’s also remember that every newspaper, every establishment politician, every other media outlet, are all “the enemy” in the minds of many in this country. Let’s just hope there aren’t enough of them to eke out a win in an election where many may go 3rd party.

      • Pohaku

        I agree. Endorsements to Trump supporters will mean nothing.. as it’s all the elite establishment in their mind.. That being said, Hillary and her torpedos ( Warren, Sanders, Obamas, Biden, Kaine etc) are coming at him from every angle.. he can’t appeal to moderates without alienating his biker/uneducated white base. They will check mate him as they tighten his escape routes. He is not going to know which attack to respond to on a daily basis as they all go after him at the same time.

        • Bruno

          The wisest thing about that multi-angle attack is not that the attacks will score points with voters, but they’ll frustrate him into getting angry and bitter and making gaffes. Hopefully that’ll go on for the next few months.

          • Ninja0980

            He’s made some in the past 24 hours… let’s hope he keeps doing that.

          • Micheleekott4

            <<o. ★★✫★★✫★★✫★★✫★★✫★★✫★★✫★★✫★★✫★★✫★★✫★★✫★★✫★★✫★★✫★★✫★★✫★★::::::!fn159m:….,….
            ..

          • 2patricius2

            According to Bill and Hillary, when she was being bullied as a little girl, her mother told her to go outside and figure out how to deal with the bullies. Looks like she has learned well how to do just that.

          • Joanrclark2

            <<o. ★★✫★★✫★★✫★★✫★★✫★★✫★★✫★★✫★★✫★★✫★★✫★★✫★★✫★★✫★★✫★★✫★★✫★★::::::!fn222m:….,….

          • Craig Howell

            Making gaffes is all he’s been doing for the last year, yet he keeps making gains!

          • Bruno

            He did during the primaries but a lot of it has just been perceived. So far it’s just a typical presidential campaign in terms of polls.

          • chasmader

            I’m really hoping Rosie O’Donnell will come out and campaign for Hillary. I remember from their twitter wars that Rosie has a way of getting under his skin that is highly entertaining.

          • Bruno

            Seems like it’s not too hard to get under his skin if you have even a quarter of a brain.

        • OdieDenCO

          negative reinforcement works best if repeated. hearing “Trump be bad” everywhere might just do the trick

        • Stanislaw

          Having the current President and Vice-President in your corner is all well and good, but unless he has someone to match the sheer start power of Scott Baio and Phil Robertson, she might was well hang it up now.

          • wanagiakicita

            I know that you are being facetious! LOL

          • Stanislaw

            The only thing missing was Clint Eastwood yelling at another empty chair but I think they’re saving that for the 2020 RNC.

      • Herald

        Remember those are just the voters, the moderates, who can clinch this election for Clinton. So moves like this are useful.

      • Circle Thomas

        For the record, the Chronicle endorsed Romney in 2012, so it should carry a lot of weight with those Romney-types.

      • Christopher

        This hit my Facebook feed yesterday. (It came out ages ago. not sure why I’m just learning about it.)

        We can say A LOT of horrible things about Romney, but he nails Trump to the wall in this speech.

        https://www.facebook.com/19apdta/videos/1098657700204660/

        • Bruno

          Yeah it was quite good. The guy isn’t a total nutjob by any means. I really hope he decides to put country first and either endorse Hillary or at least Johnson. He could single-handedly take Utah out of tRump’s small hands.

    • BobSF_94117

      If everyone is certain a tsunami is coming, the GOP will win the House and Senate. Ick.

      • OdieDenCO

        not if we are the wave

    • dcurlee

      I saw that also. That sends out a huge message from a red state

      • John T

        Texas would be a purple state if more Latinos turned out to vote. Trump has been working very hard to motivate Latinos to vote against him. I wouldn’t be very surprised if Texas turned blue this year.

        • Rob

          Only 28% of Texas’ eligible voting population is Hispanic, second largest percentage in the US, first is NM. But I don’t think that that number would be enough to overcome the rate of republicans there. And, a portion of that 28 percent is republican as well. That comes from the last census. Now, they actually have a larg percentage of Hispanics than the 28%, but that consists of ineligible to vote individuals.

          • Michael Abbett

            They’re sending Pence to Arizona to campaign on Tuesday. If they’re worried about Arizona, they’re really in trouble.

          • Paul

            But even that old Republican war horse Barbara Bush has said that she doesn’t know how women can vote for Trump. And Laura Bush has hinted that she will vote for Clinton. This could give cover to the River Oaks / Highland Park crowd who are looking for an excuse not to vote for Trump

          • chasmader

            Texas will be reliably blue within 20 years. More brown than white babies are being born there and you can’t fight demographics.

        • Michael Angelo III

          Nebraska, both Dakotas, Mississippi and Louisiana would all turn blue, at once, before Texas. Conservative Texas would murder all of the democrats in the state before they’d allow a switch in colors to occur.

    • KnownDonorDad

      Wow. Still no reason to be complacent, ever, but that’s really something.

      • Todd20036

        538.com’s poll + forecast puts Hillary ahead 62%-38%

        • crewman

          Which page are you looking at? I see 51.7% to 48.2% in favor of Hillary. I’ve been waiting for something newer than this:
          http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

          • Drewco

            The “polls-plus” options which does the Nate Silver magic for stuff like the economy, historical precedent, demographics, etc.

            The default at 538 is “polls only” which will take several days for the post DNC polls to bump out the pre DNC polls.

          • crewman

            Thanks! I didn’t notice the Polls-only vs Polls-plus options.

          • Bruno

            That’s actually tighter than this morning in the polls only, it was above 52% for Hillary when I checked earlier.

          • Bruno

            But I just checked the “Now” cast and Hillary has pulled into the lead at 54.4%-45.6%!

          • FAEN

            I went to 538 as well and it has Trump over Clinton 50-49. I am definitely confused.

            http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=mobilebar&v=1

      • nowhereman

        What I’m loving is that she is starting to attract a lot of GOP voters. John McCain’s granddaughter just endorsed Hillary and wrote an excellent OpEd about her reasons.
        http://addictinginfo.org/2016/07/30/john-mccains-granddaughter-shreds-donald-trump-declares-support-for-hillary/

    • nowhereman

      Let’s hope that it is a “sea change” a “tidal wave” and a (insert water metaphor here). I remember when the GOPTP took the Congress way back when and they were all dancing around and spewing water metaphors. After we sweep the House, Senate and Oval office this November, we should take a month or so and just cram water metaphors down their throats until they are awash in them.

      • Acronym Jim

        It should be a veritable cataract of water metaphors.

      • Librarykid

        They like water boarding.

    • John30013

      And not the liberal enclave of Austin either.

    • Dale Nichols

      I agree this is big, but Houston is not the stereotypical Texas city. Its last Republican mayor left office in 1982. Of the six mayors since then, two, including the current one, are black, and one was an openly gay woman.

      • Bruno

        True, but it’s more about the nature of the paper. Many of the larger city newspapers in this country are thought to be more left-leaning. So there are certain papers that have an outsized sway with Republicans nationwide, like the Houston Chronicle, the Washington Times, the Boston Herald.

  • Dreaming Vertebrate

    Wow! Go Hillary!

  • Michael Smith

    I won’t celebrate until Trump’s campaign is just a footnote in the history books.

    • anonymous cat

      It’ll be YUUUUGE and the best footnote!

    • Bruno

      After he loses, I want people to stop paying attention to him altogether. At least us normal people.

      • SFBruce

        Yes, right after he receives widespread publicity for the humiliating defeat at the hands of a woman.

        • RoFaWh

          #loserdonald

        • JerryRich

          TOSCA
          (watches him as he struggles helplessly on the
          floor and clutches at the sofa, trying to pull himself
          up)
          Is your blood choking you?
          And killed by a woman!
          Did you torment me enough?
          Can you still hear me? Speak!
          Look at me! I am Tosca! Oh, Scarpia!

          A rough equivalent.

          • nowhereman

            Trump certainly is a drama queen.

        • zhera

          Is it more humiliating to be defeated by a woman?

          • Jay George

            No doubt it would be for a sexist ahole like Trump.

          • Bluto

            For a misogynist, hell yeah.

          • nowhereman

            For The Donald? Yes. His worst fear is being beaten by a strong, smart woman. They are all supposed to swoon over him.

        • nowhereman

          I’m really looking forward to that, as well as the twitter wars with Elizabeth “Pocohantas” Warren. Trump should dial it back, but he won’t. He is incredibly out-classed there. Ditzy Donnie also can’t even seem to come up with any new nicknames for her and Hillary. SAD!

      • Todd20036

        Where are these “normal” people, of which you speak?

        There aren’t any that I’ve seen on this forum.

        • Bruno

          I forgot my square quotes ;(

        • nowhereman

          Do you mean that as a compliment or a put down? I’ll withhold my vote until I know.

      • Michael Rush

        This is a real quote …

        ” I don’t think I’m going to lose, but if I do, I don’t think you’re ever going to see me again, folks. I think I’ll go to Turnberry and play golf or something.”

        Donald Trump

        • Bruno

          Hopefully his golfing days will be cut short by a nice jail stint for fraud, tax evasion, treason, and bad hair.

          • That_Looks_Delicious

            Would his hair be considered a sandtrap in golf?

          • nowhereman

            Probably more like the rough. Remember the fly that got stuck in his hair and couldn’t get out?

          • nowhereman

            Hear hear! And hair hair!

          • douglas

            Or a lightning bolt from Republican Jesus.

        • PickyPecker

          ::

          • Jay George

            I’ll help!

          • JCF

            My brother’s Golden, Bailey, joins in:

        • Beagle

          Was that a promise?

        • John30013

          The second part of that thought is perhaps the only thing Trump has ever said that I agree with.

        • nowhereman

          I guess he didn’t read the twitter feed from Scotland after he congratulated them for voting for Brexit and “taking their county back”, which of course they didn’t

        • Mihangel apYrs

          We don’t want him. He’s yours.

          • Michael Rush

            Where does one dispose of nuclear waste these days ?

        • Cackalaquiano

          I think we all know there’s no chance he’ll lose and just go silent.

      • Gerry Fisher

        Poetic justice would be irreparable harm done to his damn brand, people no longer wanting to do business with him. Get in it to make money, exit with less ability to make money. Probably won’t happen, but guy can dream.

        • Bruno

          Dream big. Jail.

          • nowhereman

            Isn’t treason punished by firing squad?

          • Bruno

            I like how you think.

        • nowhereman

          It’s telling that he is begging for money from his Facebook fans and Twitter followers–oh, and of course foreign nationals. His son is helping to take him down, too–but not on purpose of course–he thinks he’s the cat’s meow.

      • nowhereman

        Side note–among the many lawsuits against him is one by a man who stayed in one of Trump’s swanky hotels and got bitten all over by bed bugs. Classy bed bugs. Yuuge bed bugs.

        • Bruno

          We think that’s why he’s so orange.

      • Tom (Wpg)

        But won’t he be the opposition? Horrors!

    • Gene

      Agreed….and I want to see him HUMILIATED.
      I did NOT like Romney. he would have been a bad President..but he was FIT to be Presdient
      I did not like McCain. a lousy President..and choosing Palin showed unfitness..but, he was not morally or emotionally unfit to sit in the oval office

      Trump is UNFIT to be POTUS, and a lousy person, a bad man, and he needs to be put FIRMLY in his place!

      Let HIM see whats it like to be belittled…by the ENTIRE country!

      • Todd20036

        Even W was a moron, but he wasn’t fascist.

        • Quipster

          W didn’t have a God-complex. He left that to Cheney.

          • Todd20036

            Cheney didn’t have a God complex. He had a money complex.

          • June Gordon

            By most accounts, W did have a God Complex, in the sense that he thought everything he did was directed by God. To me, that’s more delusional than Trump, who simply thinks he’s a god.

          • Mike__in_Houston

            Agreed. W was a moron *and* had a God complex. *And* he was not elected, but rather appointed by the Supremes. A perfect trifecta-plus (“I am dad’s avenging cowboy,” for one) that played out disastrously.

        • JCF

          …but Cheney was (“unitary executive”)

          • John30013

            Which is one thing that really galls me about GOTPers calling Obama “King” or “Emperor”. They didn’t utter a peep when Cheney and GWB came up with the “unitary executive”.

            While I am proud of what Obama has been able to accomplish despite the total obstructionism of the GOTP-controlled Congress, I am wary of executive branch overreach. But the GOTP have no one but themselves to blame for it—both for their obstructionism, and for the previous administration inventing the concept of the “unitary executive”. Let them reap what they’ve sown.

          • Bruno

            Yeah, once you open that can of worms… The Bush administration laid the groundwork for Obama’s use of EO’s. And Bush was getting a lot more compliance from Congress until 2006.

          • nowhereman

            The good news is that due to their obstructionism, Hillary and our shiny new Democratic Congress will have binders full of judges to appoint. That warms the cockles of my heart. This Congress’s actions are unprecedented.

          • Bruno

            It’s unlikely Dems will get 60 votes though, so SCOTUS justices will still be a mess to get through.

          • nowhereman

            I’m aiming high. If you want a raise to $15, start by asking for $20. I’m trying to let my inner Pollyanna out because politics have been depressing the crap out of me lately.

          • chasmader

            two words which will strike terror in the heart of every t-bagger: Recess Apointments

          • john simone

            it will be a cinch…23 GOP Senators are up for election….

          • Cboulder

            I don’tthink there have been any actions by this Congress

        • Librarykid

          But enough of his puppeteers were unprincipled thieving bastards (genavisher momzerim) to make it pretty damn bad.

      • nowhereman

        Trump is actually a traitor, and I don’t use that term frivolously.

      • Tom G

        I want to see him have to liquidate many of his precious assets.

    • another_steve

      I think the only thing that could change the current dynamic is serious terrorism on U.S. soil between now and election day.

      Fear is a mighty motivator. If something awful happens on U.S. soil, it could dramatically sway voters in his direction.

      • Bruno

        It could, but after Orlando, I’m not so convinced they wouldn’t actually gravitate towards the candidate with experience and poise rather than the insane, gaffe-laden blowhard.

        • Ninja0980

          I know one thing for sure after Orlando, his attempts to pander to LGBT folks hasn’t worked one bit.

      • olandp

        That would only happen if Don the Con didn’t run and hide like the whiny little coward he is.

        He’s already running from the debates with a strong intelligent woman who is way, way out of his league in every single way.

      • douglas

        I’m sure he and his people (Putin ), he really has the best people you know, are cooking up something yoooge as we speak.

    • John T

      I don’t want it to be just a footnote. I want to see an entire chapter about economic decline, the post-truth political landscape, racism, misogyny, demagoguery, and all-American neo-fascism.

      • Paul

        I would like his name to become a national (international?) punchline.

        Like the Edsel

        (yeah I’m that old)

    • Carl

      Which makes me wonder….. what does a Trump concession speech look like?

      • KnownDonorDad

        A temper tantrum saying that the system was rigged against him.

      • greenmanTN

        It will be a Tweet, in which he calls America a loser, with lower rating than his.

    • Raising_Rlyeh

      In someways I’d love Trump’s campaign to be wiped from the annuls of history, and yet I see the good in having a time footnote as this is the point where the GOP collapsed.

      • nowhereman

        Not even Republicans thought he would get this far. I’m hoping that enough of them are so repulsed by him that they will vote for Hillary, or sit this one out. McCain’s granddaughter just endorsed her.

    • JCF

      And EVERY Republican who supported him (publicly OR less so) joins him there!

    • FAEN

      X 1000

  • Max_1
    • Do Something Nice

      Dude, I love the way you [and I] have been good sports about our candidate losing by supporting Hillary. I still have a lot of issues with Clinton but I’m hopeful that she proves me wrong. And the alternative? I really will leave the country.

      • Todd20036

        When I comment on “Bernie Bros” I don’t mean Bernie fans who have misgivings about Hillary, but will vote for her.

        I mean those who say they’ll vote for Trump over Hitlery or claim the 2 are equally bad and vote for Jill Stein (because childhood diseases are in this year)

        I am seriously considering exist strategies as well, if Trump is somehow elected.

        • RoverSerton

          Exit to where? The entire world is less safe with Trump.

          • canoebum

            Tierra del Fuego.

          • Todd20036

            I’d consider Canada.

            Actually, Hawaii is quite far away, even if it is still America

          • Stubenville

            Milk is $9 a gallon in Oahu.

          • agcons

            That’s incredible. How much is gin?

          • marshlc

            Canada will be no refuge if Trump is the president of the US. When the US goes down, we have no choice but to go down with you.

        • KnownDonorDad

          Jill Stein and the Green Party: make America sick again.

        • nowhereman

          I really don’t get the hard core Bernie Bros. Anyone who would actually vote for Trump over Hillary is an idiot who should just stay home on election day. I’m a longtime Bernie supporter and I wanted him to run before it ever happened. But I will be fine voting for Hillary. It will be especially delicious to watch Trump get trounced by a strong, smart woman. It’s his greatest fear. Elizabeth Warren as Senate Majority Leader would be the icing on the cake. Meanwhile, may all those who are suing The Donald win their lawsuits and put that creepy con artist out of business for good. Then put him on trial for treason and election fraud. It sounds like Bernie is going to focus his attention on getting Democrats elected up and down the ticket which will really help. We need to sweep the House and Senate too.

          • Bruno

            I doubt there are too many Bernie to tRump converts. The ones that are pretty much can go to hell.

          • Jerry

            I am a Clinton supporter who was glad Bernie was in the race, because of the specific issues he raised. I saw some really childish behavior–particularly Monday night–when some Bernie delegates booed liberal and civil rights icons, and even LGBT elected officials, every time Clinton’s name was mentioned.

            But the worst was when a gay college-student Bernie delegate from our state–a boy who had been tortured almost to the point of suicide in high school–was sent emails threatening physical violence if he changed his vote to Hillary. Those emails were shared to the top of the chain of command of the DNC. The state chair lowered the boom Tuesday morning, and was going to have the delegates removed if the behavior continued.

            The remainder of the week was relatively quiet, with the protesters mainly standing silently with signs. I think a similar discussion happened in each state’s delegation.

          • Nowhereman–Berniecrat

            That was just incredibly undemocratic and rude–and immature. I also wonder how many of those were actual democrats or Bernie supporters. I would never ever do that.

        • TampaDink

          I forget which comedian said it but the idea of staunch Bernie supporters voting for donnie the commie con man over Hillary is no different than a vegan ordering the veal because the restaurant has run out of eggplant.

          • greenmanTN

            That was Trae Crowder.

          • TampaDink

            Thank you. I had a mental block….or maybe it was a brain fart.

          • Jerry

            Or Sarah Silverman: “I felt the Bern, but then I put a cream on it”.

            https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6RjF1ziPuIA

          • TampaDink

            I love her & was cheering when she spoke. Her 2nd best line, “you’re being ridiculous!”

        • Do Something Nice

          Thanks!

        • Jerry

          Some of the hardcore supporters at the convention (I just got home) were, as Sarah Silverman said, “just being ridiculous”. How was it supporting their causes when they booed Elijah Cummings, Elizabeth Warren, and some of the elected LGBT leaders? It reminded me of the cult following of Lyndon LaRouche.

      • Max_1

        Digby has a good piece out…
        http://digbysblog.blogspot.com/2016/07/outwit-outlast-outplay-outorganize-by.html

        This is democracy, warts and all. At the end of the day (and on Election Day it is the end of the day) we count votes. That’s how we determine winners and losers. There is math involved. We don’t count passion or ideology or likeability or past decisions or check-off boxes on candidate questionnaires. Politics is a competition. It’s a contest. You must be present to win. If you don’t show up to play, you forfeit.

        • Bruno

          That’s nice. Elections are also about outcomes. When you come to play, it’s not about who strokes your ego or who will give you the most shit. It’s about how you can effect the outcome, and throwing away a vote in protest does nothing in that regard. It may not hurt either, depending on the state, but people need to vote pragmatically.

          • nowhereman

            My State–Alaska–is so red that progressives are outnumbered about 3 to 1. I think that there are actually more independent and undeclared voters here than either major party has. This is going to be interesting to see what Alaska does. The last time we went for a Democrat for President was 1960 and 1964. We’ve only ever sent 2 Democrats to Congress since Statehood. Then they discovered oil and the GOP now pretty much owns the state. Well, them and the Koch brothers who are heavy into our extraction industries.

          • Bruno

            I always wondered why Alaska doesn’t act more swing-y since it’s kind of more a libertarian style there. Would I be correct in saying gun rights is a huge issue to many there? The biggest?

          • cleos_mom

            At present, the biggest issue seems to be the slowing trickle of dollars from the petroleum industry’s tits.

        • nowhereman

          And remember, real democracy is loud and messy. We will be just fine, and probably even better for it. I started this cycle not liking or trusting Hillary as a candidate. Now I am enthusiastic.

      • bambinoitaliano

        Just think of the support of Hillary is only for the general election this November, once she get elected, whatever political issues you have should continue to work on. If anything one can take away from this election cycle is, this kind of situation where both candidates are not well like can be avoided if the voters understand the importance of grass root movement where every election from the community outreach, local councilman, police chief, city mayoral race, district attorney, state representatives to state governors. Don’t wait for 4 years to face with a dire situation like 2016. People can’t complain about the candidates if they themselves do not care about exercising their civic duties by participating in elections at all levels of government. Voters are employers, the country is the way it is because of the indifference to who they voted into the office especially those who do not make the effort to vote.

        • nowhereman

          True that. Years ago the so-called Moral Majority began taking over the GOP and our country by running stealth candidates for local offices like the school boards. Now they are in Congress. We need to get serious about the grass roots.

        • cleos_mom

          ‘He’s liked but he’s not well liked.”

      • KnownDonorDad

        Thanks to both of you for behaving like responsible adults. I’ve admired the passion of the Bernie supporters, and I’ve been dismayed by those (hopefully in the small minority) who have declared they will write-in Bernie or vote for Jill Stein, even after Bernie himself weighed the options going forward and supported Clinton.

        • nowhereman

          The best thing about Bernie running is that it did get Hillary to move more solidly to the left instead of trying to run as a centrist. And Bernie DID win about 45% of the delegates so it’s obvious that a lot of Democrats and independents want a much more progressive party. I think that all in all, painful and cranky as it has been, this has been a good thing. I’ve not been a Democrat for about 25 years and instead have voted for Democrats as the lesser of two evils. But over the past two weeks I have come to be enthusiastic about voting for Hillary. I don’t think that I am alone in that feeling.

          • Bruno

            Definitely glad to read this, after hearing so much of the opposite from some Bernie supporters lately. I still support Bernie as a thinker and a politician. Hopefully everything will gel into place by Election Day for a big win.

          • nowhereman

            Here’s to a tsunami! A sea change! A waterfall! (remember back in 1994 when the GOP took the Congress? It was water metaphors everywhere) I also hope that the Democratic powers that be work on cleaning house. DWS was a disaster. She actually helped a few republicans in Florida win as I recall. Mainly, they need to listen to their base.

          • John T

            “Solidly to the left” is wishful thinking. So far it’s all just talk. Let’s see what happens when it’s time to hire people on her team, oops Debbie Wasserman Schultz. Let’s see what happens when it’s time for her to take a stand on TPP, oops she’s already flip flopped on that a couple of times depending on which audience she was pandering to. Let’s see what happens when it’s time for her to deploy the military, well, the fact that she’s already won the coveted endorsement of her good pal Henry Kissinger doesn’t exactly inspire optimism.

            Clinton’s DNC convention was a pageant of staple conservative shibboleths: family values, patriotism, worshiping the military, and #bluelivesmatter, set to a backdrop of diversity that fooled the audience into thinking that it was all a celebration of liberal values.

          • greenmanTN

            That was my point all along. Sanders was, in my opinion, unelectable in a Presidential campaign, but by him being there he pushed the DNC platform to the left. There was NO FUCKING WAY he could be President, but he did influence the results.

      • nowhereman

        I agree. I also wanted Bernie, but Hillary will be an excellent President. And she has moved more to the left. I’m hoping that survives the election, and like Bernie said–once elected, we need to hold their feet to the fire and not let them backslide. I’m feeling a lot more hopeful than I did a month ago.

        • John30013

          While I would like to see a very progressive agenda out of Hillary’s administration, I expect she’ll have to also appeal to the middle-of-the-road voters (Dems, Repubs and Indies) whom she’ll need to win the election.

          I also expect that the U.S. House, at least, probably will not change parties, due to gerrymandering by GOP-controlled state legislatures. Despite any campaign promises Hillary might make (and she’s already making some fairly progressive ones), she won’t be able to act without Congress. And if they’re half as obstinate with her as they’ve been with Obama, we’re in for another two years (at least) of gridlock and inaction.

  • Do Something Nice
    • That_Looks_Delicious

      “Notorious HRC” – LOL!

    • OdieDenCO

      “I don’t work with republicans, I beat them at their own game”

      Damn, straight

  • MikeBx2

    I think I read that Bill got a 16 point bounce after one of his first conventions. He’s probably ribbing her about that. 🙂

  • Ernest Endevor

    This is just the beginning.

  • Gene

    I LOVE it…but…I have never heard of this group, and cannot even find them on the 538 ranking (there are a …..LOT of pollsters ranked there).

    if its real…oh my God…that would be…HISTORIC as bumps go

    • Bruno

      So basically I’ve found that they’re a bipartisan firm so no known bias at least. They’ve been polling the election and had Hillary +5 on July 23rd, which is ahead of pollsters like CNN, etc. Although that last poll may not have fully reflected the RNC bounce. Nate Silver says they polled the Missouri primaries just fine. So I’m expecting Hillary will be +7 to +12 in most polls come Monday.

    • Jeff

      It is on the 538 pollster ranking. Almost at bottom of chart. Gets a B-
      http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/

      • Gene

        ahh.
        B-.
        not great, but, respectable!
        good!
        Thanks!

  • Treant

    Wasn’t that the utterly ridiculous level the conservatives were saying she needed to assure a win? And that we all said was ridiculous and she couldn’t possibly get that?

    Well, Hillary Rodham Clinton just helped build that. And conservatives, it means your ass is toast.

    Hillary Rodham Clinton.

    Fuck yeah.

    • Quipster

      As Obama said in his speech, Trump is not conservative. Many conservatives, including columnist Kathleen Park and many of her friends, are voting for Hillary.

      https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/conservative-but-not-republican/2016/07/29/a8941a8c-55cf-11e6-b7de-dfe509430c39_story.html

      Keeping in mind the old Arab adage that the enemy of my enemy is my friend, we’d probably do well to distinguish between Trump supporters and conservatives, and invite the latter to vote for Hillary.

      • Treant

        Can I call them “Tidiots” for “Trump-Idiots?”

        • Jay George

          You can call them whatever you want and if anyone says different, let me know. I can still make my teacher face at them.

          • Treant

            No worries, if criticized, I shall point at them and frown.

          • Jay George

  • JoeMyGod

    This polling firm was only founded this year: http://www.rabaresearch.com/

    • Gene

      that…gives me pause
      even with a (semi ok) B- rating from 538

      • Bruno

        Let’s couple this with the +1 Rasmussen poll from the other day and say things are looking up.

        • Treant

          Trendlines are of more significance now than actual results. A fifteen point bounce here is a very good sign and I expect the overall average to be about +7.

          Then the conservative pollsters will begin fudging data to pull the race even again.

          • Bruno

            Just to be exact, it’s a 10 point bounce…they had her at +5 on July 23rd. Though I’m not sure that accounted for the entire RNC bounce.

          • OdieDenCO

            the RNC thud would be more accurate.

      • DReel

        The fact that it was online should also give pause. Many of the more conservative folks tend to not be online.

        • John30013

          Really? RedState.com, Breitbart, BarbWire, National Review, the Yahoo! comments section? I think there are plenty of conservative folks online.

          As long as the demographics are equivalent to the population and the polling methodology is sound, I wouldn’t dismiss it simply because it’s online only (although I understand the inherent weaknesses of that type of poll).

          • DReel

            I didn’t say to dismiss it. I said “give pause.” But I was specifically thinking about the older generation, such as my own parents, who have been and shall remain silent until the last second when they actually vote, simply because they do not maintain an online presence, period. Sadly, even my own parents will vote in a way that harms me.

    • DaddyRay

      Don’t ever trust online polls

      Give me and online Pole any day

      • TampaDink

        Be careful. I fell for one of those types once. It didn’t end well

  • Archipelagos

    I hope that no one has even the sliver of complacency now in regards to the vote. There’s still a ridiculously high chance of Trump winning and until November no one should, for even a second, think President Clinton is a done deal.

    Vote.

    • Zellaby

      Please vote.

    • Gene

      amen, amen, amen

  • Blake Jordan

    How is 14% still undecided / other, WTF!?!?

    • Bruno

      It’s an election with 2 unpopular candidates and 2 relatively unknown 3rd party candidates, so I’m not that surprised.

    • Gene

      I know a LOT of people who have…living in their little worlds of nothing but ball games, game shows and crap on tv, have been UTTERLY unaware of this campaign.

      sad…but true

  • When the polls favour Hillary, they can’t be trusted. At least that’s what I’ve been told.

    • Bruno

      Yes, they are skewed like the ones against Romney were.

      • Romney landslide. Bigger than Reagan. Every state.

        • Bruno

          There was a great meltdown video of some woman watching the election results live, and flipping out that Romney WASN’T EVEN GOING TO WIN THE POPULAR VOTE!!!!11!!!1 like those polls said he would!!!!111!!! So delicious.

          • RoverSerton

            I loved watching Carl Rove melt down…. this is wrong, this is wrong….

          • Bruno

            That ridiculous Ohio business. He looked generally concerned that they were calling the state incorrectly and then Fox called it. And Ohio wasn’t even the tipping point state anyway.

          • Clive Johnson

            That should be a smartphone ringtone. It wouldn’t brighten your mood with every call you get.

        • RoverSerton

          Really? all 51? (I’m good at voting, lousy at US history).

  • GayOldLady
    • Octavio

      Me,too. Let’s get out our skate boards and thrash down the street.

      • GayOldLady

        I’m ready baby. If only!

        • TuuxKabin

          Yeah. I’d be official coat and purse holder. Of course they’d be safe with me.

  • bryan

    I was reading that Jill Stein is an anti vaxxer…. amazed that anyone could waste a vote on her…

    http://www.slate.com/blogs/moneybox/2016/07/29/jill_stein_continues_pandering_to_anti_vaxxers.html

    • I also enjoy the twisted logic her supporters cling to, trying to paint her as anything but an anti-vaxxer.

    • danolgb

      That’s not even my biggest issue. The only elected office she’s actually ever held is a town council member. You don’t go from town council to President. I could take the Green Party seriously if they put up a serious candidate and not just the first one who can afford to do nothing else but run every four years.

      • Bruno

        They need to grow serious candidates first. There just aren’t enough Green Party politicians to turn them into a serious force that could lift a presidential candidate to prominence. And I doubt there ever will be, because they are way too purist to know how to appeal to people who have nuanced opinions on things.

      • Treant

        So a completely inexperienced candidate who’ll be down with the flu for two weeks every year. That right there is reason enough to reject her.

      • KnownDonorDad

        The other seven people who were Lexington town meeting representatives might have good ideas, too.

      • Beagle

        The truly scary part — town representative is more experience than Dump has.

    • Ziad Baaklini

      The irony is that the main difference between Hillary and Stein is that the latter favors an isolationist approach to American foreign policy (“no more wars”) presumably because of deaths, when the lack of vaccinations would have caused hundreds of millions of deaths over the years.

    • Blake Jordan

      I despise what Stein is trying to do, but…

      She is only against mandatory vaccinations, not vaccinations in general…
      Though that does not amount to too much difference.

      • Ziad Baaklini

        There is no functional difference.

      • Treant

        Same difference. The latest nuance is to be against them being mandatory for FREEDOM OF CHOICE, don’tcha know.

        It’s a cover story for “vaccines kill and I can prove it using this Alternet data…”

      • danolgb

        She plays both sides and won’t commit either way. She gives credence to the anti-vaxxers, which is enough. And they say Hillary panders!

    • sherman
      • Bruno

        That’s good to know, thanks . There are plenty of reasons to vote against Jill Stein.

        • sherman

          “There are plenty of reasons to vote against Jill Stein.”

          Yes, the important point.

          • Bruno

            I’m curious as to why the mighty Green Party hasn’t been able to lure people like Mr. Bernie Sanders into their fold, when they’re so similar on the issues.

          • That_Looks_Delicious

            Here’s their list of progressive accomplishments:
            1) umm
            2) errr
            3) ahem
            4) *fidgets*
            5) *stares at ceiling*
            6) Oh, hey, we helped get George Bush “elected” in 2000. Does that count?

          • Bruno

            “In answer to that question, all I have to say is…NADER NADER NADER”

        • Reality.Bites

          There are plenty of reasons to not even waste time thinking about voting for her.

      • danolgb

        Kim LaKapria shouldn’t be writing for Snopes. I’ve read her articles. They suck. She shows bias in many of her articles.

        • sherman

          “As a medical doctor of course I support vaccinations. I have a problem with the FDA being controlled by drug companies.”

          — Dr. Jill Stein (@DrJillStein) July 29, 2016

          • danolgb

            “As a medical doctor, there was a time where I looked very closely at those issues, and not all those issues were completely resolved,” Stein said. “There were concerns among physicians about what the vaccination schedule meant, the toxic substances like mercury which used to be rampant in vaccines. There were real questions that needed to be addressed. I think some of them at least have been addressed. I don’t know if all of them have been addressed.”
            Dr. Jil Stein also july 29,2016

          • Treant

            She’ll always have the Fierce, Dumb Mommy vote.

            Fun story: My cousin was completely against Unnatural Substances touching her children. That’s nice, but when they’re popping a fever of 103, Tylenol is kind of a thing.

            Yes, if you guessed repeated febrile seizures and a (short) hospital stay with loads of Unnatural Substances being Pumped Into The Child, you’re right. She became a real big fan of Tylenol after that.

          • Octavio

            I didn’t know Tylenol (acetaminophen) reduced fever. Does it? When I was a child the only thing available was baby aspirin followed with a paregoric chaser (to knock us out).

          • Treant

            Yep, all of the Big Three (Tylenol, aspirin, and Ibuprofin) are effective at pain relief, reducing swelling, and lowering fever.

            As an adult, I usually take Ibuprofin as I find it more effective overall for me personally. Children should not take aspirin for fever. They can develop Reye’s Syndrome.

          • TuuxKabin

            Consumer warning:

            Over-the-counter pain relievers. Nonprescription pain relievers such as acetaminophen (Tylenol, others), aspirin, ibuprofen (Advil, Motrin IB, others) and naproxen (Aleve, others) can damage your liver, especially if taken frequently or combined with alcohol. Prescription medications.Jun 1, 2013

          • Yixing’s Fluffer

            Exactly. She knows that she needs the anti-vaxx vote so she’s tap dancing all around this issue.

          • KnownDonorDad

            Or as I like to call it, “the pro-sick-and-dead-kids vote.”

      • Todd20036

        She isn’t anti vax, she’s just anti mandatory vax.

        So yeah, it’s false, except it isn’t

      • KnownDonorDad

        She could clarify her position, but it would damage her standing with certain Green Party lunatics.

    • KnownDonorDad

      The Green Party has a pro-homeopathy plank in its platform, too.

  • Blake Jordan

    It is just one poll, let us wait for several of them and Silver’s team to “average” them out…
    Plus, swing states are the important ones…

  • bkmn

    No matter how well the polls show her doing we can NOT afford to rest. We need to work our butts off since Trump & Co. will do whatever they can to win.

    • sherman

      As will the Russians and Assange.

      • bkmn

        If Trump wins we had all better move to Mexico or Canada or learn Russian very quickly.

        • Quipster

          I’ve been telling my partner that if Trump is elected, Mexico WILL pay for the wall, just to keep out all the gringos who want to get into Mexico.

          • That_Looks_Delicious

            Gov. Jerry Brown has joked that if Trump is elected, California will build a wall.

          • Bruno

            I will help build it.

          • JCF

            Sign me up!

        • TampaDink

          Do Mexico and Canada have some secret super shield that will save them from the effects of nuclear war? I bring this up because donnie the commie con man has vowed to use nukes…and we all know that he has zero self restraint.

          • marshlc

            Yeah, as a Canadian, I’m getting kinda tired of all this “I’ll move to Canada!” What happens in a huge country right beside us, our largest trading partner, happens to us.

            Except we don’t get a say. We don’t have a vote we can throw away in a fit of pique. We just have to watch, and bear the consequences.

          • TampaDink

            On behalf of all of your sane neighbors to the south, we are fighting for our country’s leadership but also for the safety of the entire planet.

          • marshlc

            Yes, you are, and we are so happy for those of you who realize this and take the responsibility seriously.

            There was a Bernie Bro of the worst sort here the other day who was all “la di da I don’t care I have dual citizenship and will just go to Canada” and now I’m determined to push through a Canadian law that says “If you didn’t do all you could to stop Trump winning, you’re not allowed in” . I think it will pass easily.

          • TampaDink

            Your idea sounds fantastic. Now if we could only deport everyone who is supporting donnie the commie con man to someplace far away…

    • RoverSerton

      Day 101 days from now, we can relax. Sprint thru the finish line!

  • dcurlee

    👍👍👍👍

  • Todd

    National polls mean nothing at this point, BUT …..

    https://admin.mashable.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/The-Office.gif

  • Michael Rush

    Oh how I wish this was a fact we could rely on !

    here’s another example of Trump’s assholism I found …

    Mr. Trump attacked Deutsche Bank’s lending practices and said that as a big bank, it was partially responsible for causing the financial crisis. He sought $3 billion in damages. ( note : US banks will not lend to Trump , besides foreign bank Deutsche Bank, which is in trouble , he gets his money from Russia and China )

    Deutsche Bank in turn sued Mr. Trump, saying it was owed $40 million that the businessman had personally guaranteed in case his company was unable to repay the loan.

    Deutsche Bank argued that Mr. Trump had a cavalier history toward banks, quoting from his 2007 book, “Think Big And Kick Ass In Business And Life.”

    “I figured it was the bank’s problem, not mine,” Mr. Trump wrote, according to the lawsuit. “What the hell did I care? I actually told one bank, ‘I told you you shouldn’t have loaned me that money. I told you that goddamn deal was no good.’”

    From this article :

    Donald Trump sued Deutsche Bank to get out of $40 million debt over Chicago property two years after rooting for housing collapse

    http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/trump-sued-bank-40m-debt-housing-crash-article-1.2648758

    • Treant

      He seems nice. Bless his little heart.

  • HZ81

    A good way to kick off the next 100 days. Wow.

  • PickyPecker
  • aar9n

    Praise be to thor

  • Michael Rush

    Unfortunately they only polled 956 voters here .

    • Treant

      Assuming they managed to get an accurate cross-section, 956 isn’t a bad sample size.

      Off the cuff, it should give you an error of 3.5 percent-ish, way smaller than the result difference. It’s whether the sample is accurate that would be the question…

      • Michael Rush

        Reuters gave her a 6 point lead with 1500 or so polled .

        • Treant

          I guarantee you Rasmussen will give her +2 with 2,000 polled.

      • Bruno

        Sampling is always the question, and it’s one that each polling firm answers according to their own biases or guesses. Rasmussen answers all their sampling questions with a big “GOP!” until the day before the election when they look at what the good pollsters do.

  • AtticusP

    From “The Economist”:

    • That_Looks_Delicious

      A little *too* subtle and clever for the times we’re living in. This will only appeal to those educated “elites” that Trump doesn’t like and that don’t like Trump.

      • AtticusP

        Still, it makes a statement.

        I have a hard time believing that people haven’t already decided who they’re supporting.

        I’m with Hillary–not only because I think that she is the most qualified and experienced candidate for the job that I have seen in my lifetime, but because I have this longstanding desire to keep batshit crazy out of the White House as far as is humanly possible.

        • Jay George

          George W was criminally stupid, but Trump is a damn loony tune. How do the republicans keep finding these crazy, evil bastids?

          • Bruno

            Bush was either a pushover for the neocons in his party, or completely snowed by them. Either way, his presidency was a fiasco.

          • AtticusP
          • Jay George

            They are working their way back to amoebas.

          • AtticusP

            Well, they sure took a giant leap THIS election cycle, don’t you agree? 🙂

          • lymis

            So, pond scum comes next?

          • Jay George

            Either that or flesh eating bacteria. 😐

      • JCF

        Um, it’s aimed at Economist readers. Hardly Joe Six-Pack!

    • Oscarlating Wildely

      The interesting thing may be the location– it’s at 47th from the street sign, the musicals suggest 7th or B’Way- right by the top of tourist mecca that is Times Square. Seeing the ads appealing to visitors to NYC couples Blumberg’s claim he is no friend to NYC and business. It’s a good add in that it makes you stare at it a while, which may be its burden. In Times Square, that doesn’t tend to happen. Plus, well, it doesn’t blink.

      • Bruno

        But tRump’s gonna win New York, so, it’s just a waste of time.

        • Oscarlating Wildely

          oh yea…. that’s right…. ooops… silly me…..

    • Reality.Bites

      If you put both sides together it’s “Don’t Visit Korea.”

  • That_Looks_Delicious

    Is sanity returning to America? Dare I hope?

    • Bruno

      I wish I could say yes, but I think it’s just a convention bounce. Those tend to not hold up.

  • Yixing’s Fluffer

    FYI, 538 gives RABA Research a B-.

    http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/

  • WICKET99
  • RoFaWh

    Am I right in thinking that a fifteen percent plurality would constitute a landslide?

    • danolgb

      Usually when translated to electoral college.

    • Treant

      +15 would be a Republican-shattering wave election that’s well into landslide territory.

    • Yixing’s Fluffer
    • That_Looks_Delicious

      Well, she’s already got more than that in California in her worst poll. Some California polls had her up +30.

      Now…. about the rest of the country….

      • OdieDenCO

        Reach out and YouTube somebody re:Trae Crower

      • Gene

        its an excuse to visit Vegas (be warned…BP lives there..but, the odds of ringing that doorbell…meh…its an excuse to visit Vegas). Or, if you know for sure you will never visit another planet…next best thing…Portland. (take smelling salts.some of the people I know there are still in mourning…its like their dog…or DAD died)

      • SoCalGal20

        You can try to find GOTV efforts and that sort of thing in neighboring states like AZ and NV if you want to do something on the ground.

      • lymis

        You can also donate to downticket candidates. And you can do outreach to friends and family in other states.

  • Jeffrey

    Awesome. But let’s make too much of it because bounces breed complacency and then they go down.

  • JT

    That’s what I’m talking about!

  • RobynWatts

    I hope that people realize that polling data doesn’t mean anything and that our votes will be the final say in all this. Like a lot of posters here, I won’t feel easy until Trump is nothing more, but a bad political memory.

  • Friday

    Polls still seem to be all over the place, but if this isn’t good news then it’d be a very freakish outlier.

    • That_Looks_Delicious

      Yeah, I’ve noticed lately that you really have to look at the dates that the poll was conducted, because some of them are being released as much as 2 weeks after they were conducted.

      • Friday

        There’s also just been tons of variables day to day given how much noise went into the process before the conventions, candidates dropping in and out and contesting things, etc: things may start to settle out to some extent here now that a lot of those things are a pretty done deal.

        The corporate media will of course react by trying to spin things into a horse race for the sake of their own profits as usual, but this is actually more of a *sane* result, especially given the sharp contrasts between the conventions.

  • Jay George

    This is my my fight song
    Trump fly a kite song
    His brain ain’t right song
    Small hands & tiny dong…

    • PickyPecker

      I like your new avatar pic! Happy Saturday!

    • crewman
      • Jay George

        Thank you for sharing that, I was ready to hear it again. It’s catchy! 😉

        • Oscarlating Wildely

          I know, as ridiculed at it is, it’s catchy. TR Knight’s voice is pretty good, Kristin Chenoweth is as usual wicked good (see what I did there)– and you could have Jane Fonda read the damned grocery list and I’m impressed, she’s an icon. And Sia’s as usual funky weird and cool. (who btw is curly haired blond dude with the pink hat?).

          Meanwhile, they have Chachi.

          And I just went swimming in Ian Somerhalder’s eyes.

          • Jay George

            I do see what you did there! 😀 But Oh eM Gee I did not recognize Jane Fonda. I’m going to have to slap myself around the head for that. The shame!

  • Texndoc

    http://thegatewaypundit.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/tinfoil.jpg

    The only poll that will matter to Trumptards is the day after. And get ready for “He lost, but he really won.”

    • Reality.Bites

      They can commiserate with the Bernie Bros who expect to win on write-ins.

  • I.Smith

    In other news Ryan Bundy wants $1,000,000 from the government to represent himself against the government. http://katu.com/news/local/ryan-bundy-wants-1-million-to-represent-himself

    Plus he also declared himself an idiot in his trial http://www.opb.org/news/series/burns-oregon-standoff-bundy-militia-news-updates/ryan-bundy-incompetent-subject-federal-law/

    • Bruno

      He’s provided ample evidence to prove that claim.

      • I.Smith

        Hey that is insulting to genuine Idiots.

    • Friday

      The sense of entitlement of rich bigoted right wing thugs is astounding. Idiot’s a good word.

    • Stubenville
    • I saw that. As many now know, the whole Sovereign Citizen movement itself is a consequence of a variant on the get-rich-quick scheme, in which gullible rubes are fleeced out of hundreds or even thousands of dollars for info packages and lectures. DVDs, books, etc. What we see are the results: People fooled into believing absolutely ridiculous conspiracy theories and that there is some kind of magical alchemy which can force the courts and the government to do one’s bidding. You just gotta file the right paperwork in exactly the right way with the exactly correct quasi-legalistic gibberish.

      In this case, I truly do wonder if there’s a con artist out there who decided that on top of cheating gullible idiots out of their money, he’d additionally talk them into filing paperwork explicitly declaring themselves to be idiots and incompetents. As in, “No, no! It’s not ‘idiot’ like it says in the dictionary. In court, it means something else entirely!”

  • Lazycrockett
  • Get Real

    Let’s all take a deep breath until the A rated polls (according to 538) are released. We Dems are going to have to work our asses off to defeat Trump but this is a good early sign albeit with alot of

  • TuuxKabin

    Enjoy that bounce Hillary, bounce right into the White House.

    Slightly OT: But, I was pondering, how many WH staff would stay on if Hillary is not elected? After working with the Obama family? What a horrible spot to be put on.

    • Lazycrockett

      After 4 to 8 years in the WH most staffers are itching to get the hell out of such a high priority stressful high maintenance job.

      • Reality.Bites

        I think he means household staff. Political staff won’t be staying if Trump wins, but presumably some household staff could.

      • TuuxKabin

        Hmmm. So you say. The Obamas certainly must have been less high maintenance than the previous occupants.

    • Bruno

      No worries, he’ll bring back Ivana to be in charge of the Latino cleaning ladies while Melania concentrates on her speechwriting.

  • kanehau

    Well Done…

  • olandp

    Yesterday I had a client, a middle of the road conservative, whisper to me, “If I had to vote today, I’d vote for Hillary.” Needless to say I was surprised, mainly that she would admit it.

    • Bruno

      I guess that’s why she whispered it.

    • Herald

      She needs to keep that thought. Hopefully actions by Trump will bring more over.

  • Cara Rosenberg

    Nate Cohn and Nate Silver said polls in September will be far more accurate and give us a clue as to what’s gonna happen

    • Bruno

      Surely. And there are debates coming up, the first of which in 2012 gave Romney a bit of a bounce. Or no debates may happen.

      • billbear1961

        He’s already showing he has no intention of debating. Hillary would DESTROY him, and he knows it.

        The media won’t insist. They would CRUCIFY Hillary if SHE refused, just as they would CRUCIFY her if SHE were in Putin’s pocket, spouting pro-Russian policies, encouraging Russia to launch cyberattacks on this country (with Russia doing so) and refusing to release tax returns that PROVED she was up to her neck in HOCK to the Russian oligarchs.

        I’ve begun to wonder how many in the media are in FAVOUR of this nation becoming a fascist state. There are certainly many on Fox and CNN who’d be ready and EAGER to serve on Trump’s PRAVDA. I don’t think they’re alone. MANY of them are FOR SALE.

        I’ve begun to wonder, dear Bruno, how many OTHERS in this country, including our VALIANT Defenders of Truth and Democracy in the media, are being financed by the Russian oligarchs.

  • Max_1
  • Acronym Jim

    This is great news. Trump got between a 1-4 % bounce, depending on the reporting and previous polls. At the same time, 538 projected about a 4% bounce for Clinton as well. It’s nice to see that Love really does trump hate.

    http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-trump-gets-convention-bounce-drawing-polls-to-dead-heat/

    • Bruno

      I’m hoping her bounce will be more than 4, maybe 7-10 points.

      • Acronym Jim

        The 538 link is from before the current poll came out and was published the first day of the DNC. They projected 4%, but the current polls seem to indicate it will far exceed that.

        • Bruno

          I know, I was just saying what I hoped it would be. It’s tough to figure out how it’ll go when those polls come on Monday based on what we have, but I agree the few we have show a bigger bounce. The Rasmussen +1 Clinton, well take it with a grain of salt because they could just be nefariously lying, but it’s quite possible that was already reflecting a bounce before the convention was even over. The Pennsylvania +9 poll and the Missouri poll were both quite promising. And this poll today, though likely inaccurate in its +15, has shown a 10 point bounce from its previous poll. Altogether, it’s really looking solid.

  • Gerry Fisher

    There is a chance that sanity will prevail. It sure as hell isn’t guaranteed, but…so far, so good.

    • safari

      America the sane vs orange madman

  • Duh-David

    Found somewhere on the interweb…

  • TampaDink

    Imagine how much greater the jump in polling might have been without the drama from the hacking of the DNC’s emails. Donnie the commie con man won’t take this news well…..at all.

  • safari

    But I was told online that the stadium was empty, Trump had the better ratings, he was up by 20, and that his speech was the better of the two.

    • Bruno

      And that women, blacks, Hispanics, the LGBTz, Asian-Americans, and Muslims all love him more.

    • Sam_Handwich

      and don’t forget CHACHI!

    • DaddyRay

      Quotes on the Internet

  • Sam_Handwich

    not that i don’t like good news….but after scanning the cross tabs, i’m a bit perplexed by Clinton’s 7 point lead among men and 16 point lead with voters over 60 (roughly same margin as voters 18-29)

    http://www.rabaresearch.com/documents/RABA-Updated-National-Survey-July-2016-2.pdf

    • Bruno

      I’m not as surprised with the over 60 as the men. That’s quite obviously not right. Unless something really interesting is happening.

      • Sam_Handwich

        something interesting could be happening….but this is way off from other July polls. so it’s an outlier unless we see similar trends in the coming weeks

        • Bruno

          You’d think Nate would’ve brought that up.

          • billbear1961

            Silver’s behaviour is odd, all in all, rather sour.

          • lymis

            Has to be a weird time for a statistician. Hillary is unique in many ways, not just because she’s the first woman, but because she has such a varied resume, and the support of an unusually popular incumbent, while Trump isn’t doing ANYTHING the way people would expect. So it has to be that much harder this far out to predict things.

          • Bruno

            On the other hand, polls so far have shown a very similar race between this one and the previous few. The same states are in play and swinging back and forth. Some like Virginia might be polling a bit better for Dems while Iowa and Nevada may be polling a bit better for Rethugs, but basically it’s the same ballgame. The Rethuglican moved ahead after his convention, and the Democrat is poised to after hers. Should be interesting from hereon out though.

          • billbear1961

            To give an example of Silver’s oddness this year, he’s written a piece where he says it’s not too late for Trump or Clinton to change perceptions of them, to make themselves more likable.

            Hillary, okay; but Trump? Seriously?!

            Has Silver been WATCHING Trump?

            If anything, Trump just keeps getting WORSE, more negative and erratic.

            He has give NO indication–NONE–that he intends to pivot and make himself more likable–quite the contrary.

            His WHOLE campaign is based on ferocious negativity.

          • Bruno

            I saw that. I think what he was trying to say that in any election 3 months is a lot of time for the candidate to change perceptions. It’s not about whether he thinks tRump is capable of doing that, it’s about whether or not he has the time to do that if he were.

          • That_Looks_Delicious

            Even Jerry Brown said the day after he spoke at the convention that Dems need to take Trump very seriously and that there is a serious chance that he could win. I think Nate Silver is stating the same thing in different words.

          • ^ This. Trump is getting worse, not better. More negative, more monster-shouty, more erratic and publicly, visibly unhinged. And the one thing he’s not doing now and hasn’t since he secured the GOP nomination has been to sincerely reach out to anybody, any demographic, which doesn’t already like and support him.

            I don’t know if it will happen or can happen, but I do believe there can reach a point where his polling numbers collapse.

            However, we must not be complacent.

          • billbear1961

            Becca, I wrote this to Bruno last night. Please forgive me for repeating it here, but it’s the bear’s cri de coeur, maybe my swan song before just giving up. (I’ll put what I wrote to Bruno in italics.)

            After recent events surrounding the hacking, we have a RIGHT to see those TAX RETURNS.

            Damn it–this is a matter of national security!

            If any other candidate’s financial ties to another nation were as suspicious as his, a nation he is strangely favouring, a nation he–in an unprecedented act for ANY candidate for POTUS–called upon to launch a cyberattack on his OWN country (and the attacks have grown WORSE since he did), ACTION would be taken.

            You KNOW neither Congress nor the media would let Hillary or ANY other candidate get away with a similar act.

            Many GOP people who have worked for national security in past GOP administrations are OUTRAGED by his disloyal and bizarre behaviour, and deeply concerned about it. They basically say it makes him UNFIT to be POTUS!! They consider this a GRAVE matter, a disqualifying ACT.

            David Caster said THIS to me today:

            Do keep in mind that Trump’s tax returns are in the hands of the IRS. The FBI and CIA can easily gain access to them under the euphemistically named USA Freedom Act, which replaced the Patriot Act.

            Bruno, Trump cannot be TRUSTED.

            Something has to be done! Our suspicions are reasonable and JUSTIFIED, and–Christ!–we have a RIGHT to know the TRUTH!!

            http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/cover_story/2016/07/vladimir_putin_has_a_plan_for_destroying_the_west_and_it_looks_a_lot_like.html

            THAT man is a swindler and a LIAR! He’s up to his NECK in the money of Russian oligarchs!

            Political leaders, the media, the people–we ALL must INSIST on a thorough investigation, and it STARTS with those goddamned TAX RETURNS!!

            We must NOT let this go!

            For a CHANGE, we must INSIST on ANSWERS!!

            Bruno, he wants to be POTUS and he’s HIDING something, and I think we have a pretty good idea WHAT he’s hiding!!

            Bruno, is an entire nation incapable of standing up to that ONE fat-mouthed JACKASS?!

            Have we become THAT fucking PATHETIC?!

            He has NO RIGHT to ask for ANYONE’S vote while he’s obviously hiding something BIG!!

            You may have seen Manafort in an interview discussing Trump, Russia, and Trump’s tax returns. That man–who has worked for DICTATORS–who has financial ties to Russian oligarchs himself–was LYING!! (Just as he told a baldfaced LIE about the plagiarism!)

            Trump becomes almost incoherent when he’s cornered, because he’s a LIAR. We KNOW that! He tells us all the time he doesn’t say what we KNOW he’s SAID!! “I’ve met Putin. No, I haven’t.”

            When they are asked if Russian oligarchs number among Trump’s investors, neither Manafort nor Trump will ANSWER!!

            Damn it–we will SEE those TAX RETURNS!!

          • Feel free to shout it from the rooftops, BillBear! What you said NEEDS to be repeated.

          • lymis

            The fact that it’s not too late for Trump to change his image doesn’t mean that there’s any likelihood he will. This is traditionally the time that the party-specific firebrands moderate their message for the general election and start sounding more palatable to the middle. Trump seems to have explicitly decided to do the reverse.

      • billbear1961

        Like in MO, IF that recent state poll is accurate.

        • Gene

          I was thinking that also
          MO I mean..

          and…cynic, wrapped in skeptic, inside a doubter that I am, 15?…and leading men?…hummm

          a bump? I expect a bump.
          this is a third trimester so over due “bump” the docs about to order a ceasarian deliver sized bump

          • Bruno

            The Dems will get a bump. It’s just a question of whether it’ll be +4 like Nate said or something bigger. Anything more than +4 is padding for the next 3 months that will likely erode at times and be rebuilt at times. It’s pretty much just like the last few elections, despite the candidates.

    • Stubenville

      The over sixty demographic might have started worrying what the Shrieking Cheeto is going to do to Social Security should he be elected. Hillary need to pound him on this topic.

      • Bruno

        His crowds actually tend to trend younger than 60. In years past, many of the oldsters have liked Hillary, I don’t know where it’s at now. +16 is probably too high but I think this poll is probably +5 lean to Hillary anyway based in relation to other recent polls.

        • SoCalGal20

          My aunt is in her 70s and is voting for Trump. She seems to be scared of the world.

          • Bruno

            Yeah, it happens. But I wouldn’t be surprised if Hillary does well with that age group.

    • That_Looks_Delicious

      The other way to look at that lead among voters over 60 is to invert the question: Why isn’t she doing better with voters under 30? This is perplexing and it has been her problem all this past year and it still is. Her numbers with millenials are not just below Obama’s, they’re even below Kerry’s in 2004.

      http://www.gallup.com/opinion/polling-matters/194045/clinton-continuing-youth-problem.aspx

      I’m stumped myself. I’m 55 myself and I just don’t have a clue how to reach millenials or what they’re thinking. But we better come up with something in the next 100 days.

      • Bruno

        Three words: the Bernie candidacy. The plummet with millennials started in Feb/March, when the primary really heated up. She’ll win some back, but not all.

    • SoCalGal20

      I don’t put too much stock into this poll. Nate Silver says they’re new and to me they seem to be an outlier. They had Hillary up +5 after the RNC convention, but who knows? They may be right.

      Btw, I am happy to report my Bernie-loving housemate is fully on board with Hillary. She’s disappointed Bernie didn’t get the nomination but she’s all about getting Hillary elected now. And she really liked Hillary’s speech Thursday night and the Democratic convention as a whole. We spent the morning talking about how great the convention was compared to the Republican one and how awful Trump is lol.

      • Bruno

        That’s good…to the point I even look at my FB BoB friends, there’s a lot of #DemExit and continued righteous anger. I’m sure the terrorist/ISIS section of her speech which the Republicans don’t like because she didn’t say “Islamic terrorism” is the same section that the BoB’s hate the most.

  • billbear1961
  • FAEN

    Great start Hillary but it’s just that. You’ve got your heel on his neck and there is no need to stop pressing.

    • billbear1961

      There is every need to KEEP pressing!

      • FAEN

        Damn skippy!

  • JCF

    http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

    Nate Silver’s “Polls Only” has it as only a HEART ATTACK Hillary 50.9% to Drumpf’s 49.1 [Though her lead is a much more comforting 61.1 w/ “Polls Plus”]

    Bottom line:

    • Bruno

      I don’t understand. This morning the polls only was 52% for Hillary and it’s been slowly tracking down. The now poll actually flipped over to her while the polls plus remained the same in her favor. What is influencing the polls only so harshly today?

      • JCF

        Not a statistician; I really couldn’t tell you.

      • yetanotherLaura

        It’s probably the delay in results from the polls after the Republican convention. Next week we’ll see that start to turn around, I suspect. Polls always take a week or two to catch up to what’s going on.

        Note: Just my WAG. I’m not a statistician, either.

        • Bruno

          True. I’m just trying to figure out what other polls may have come out today. I’m finding nothing else so far. Maybe they were factoring in some from yesterday like the Reuters/Ipsos that had Clinton up +5 registered voters but only tied among likely.

      • lymis

        Don’t look at this week’s news, look at last week’s news – a lot of Hillary bashing at the GOP convention, mostly.

    • SoCalGal20

      I don’t know what the deal is with the “Polls-Only” being so close but she’s now ahead in all three measurements that Nate Silver runs (Polls-plus and Now-cast by wider margins than Polls-only). But, agreed, we can’t be complacent!

      • lymis

        Somewhere on his site, he explains what the deal is, and it makes sense. They get so much confusion over it that it’s why they split things into “polls only” and “polls plus” – and Silver himself says that it’s way too far out just now to be putting too much weight on the polling, especially in its moment to moment change.

        Trump got less of a convention bounce than the models would usually predict. It will take a while before the polls start showing the post- Democratic convention effect.

        • justmeeeee

          What are you, crazy??!?!!?! We believe the polls when they match our preferences and when they don’t, we call BS. Simple!

          • Steven Leahy

            LOL EXACTLY

        • SoCalGal20

          Oh yes, sorry. I didn’t mean to sound bitchy about, I know Nate explains it (I can never remember the details). Anyway, she’s leading right now in all three measurements so she’sgetting a bounce at least.

    • Ross

      538, five hours ago, Polls-Plus (which is the most accurate):

  • Encouraging poll information, but I’ve long since learned from Nate Silver, whom several have remarked about in this same post, that one should never depend on the results of a single outlying poll. It’s aggregates and trends which really matter and I believe it’s a little early yet to declare what the actual post-convention bounce is for Clinton/Kaine.

    I think it’ll be in the middle to latter part of next week we’ll see where this is really going. I do have some hope yet that over the coming weeks, we might even see Trump’s numbers collapse — because he is doing NOTHING to reach out to those who don’t already like and support him.

    • Bruno

      My big hope is that the way the Dems framed the race at the convention sticks. It’s AMERICA vs. TRUMP. He’s a homegrown enemy. I think that many in the center, even someone like Mitt Romney, would likely agree with that characterization.

      • Aye. Many forget that elections aren’t won out on the far liberal left or the far conservative right. They’re won in the middle.

  • Dreaming Vertebrate

    Trump is not going to like this 15-point jump for Clinton one bit.
    Sadly, more than a 15-point jump in his blood pressure is likely imminent.
    It would be terrible if this triggered an explosive aneurysm, possibly even a yooOOooge intracerebral hemorrhage. Praying for Trump.

    • justmeeeee

      Yes, that would be terrible. If Trump were to kick the bucket, the rethugs would get a chance to nominate a legit candidate and Hillary would probably be toast.

      • TampaDink

        She wouldn’t have any time for campaigning in between all of the hearings looking into her involvement. All the more reason to hope that if disappointment is what will be his undoing, that it be the morning after election day when he suffers from his greatest disappointment of all time.

    • Randy503

      Can’t wait for him to say he wants to punch Hillary in the face.

      • Bruno

        Oh I so wish. And have his crowd cheer wildly. Then have the camera pan over every one of their lousy faces so their friends can dump each and every one of their lousy asses.

        • Ninja0980

          I dumped a former friend of mine when he used a racial slur to talk about Obama.
          Will gladly do the same again over Clinton.

          • Bruno

            I just unfriended a conservative friend who was calling Clinton names. Republican + Hillary bashing + a few other things = probable tRump voter and buh-bye.

  • Sam_Handwich
    • Yet when pressed to name any actual sacrifices, Trump couldn’t name a single one. He then tried to change the subject to the jobs he’d created via his businesses, but again, that’s no sacrifice if you’re doing it in order to enrich your own personal wealth.

      • TampaDink

        Love that he considers creating jobs as a sacrifice.
        Yeah….Hillary wrote that speech. Uh huh….just like Melanoma wrote her speech.

        • Yeah… a seven minute speech supposedly memorized and able to be delivered without notes or teleprompter. An ordinary person can only do that when delivering the words from one’s own heart, not something anybody else wrote.

          Trump has always gone for the cheap-ass ad hominem attack whenever faced with something he can’t handle.

          • Ninja0980

            And the media keeps letting him get away with it, truly disgusting.

      • Bruno

        To my eyes, that’s a Palin-level trainwreck of an interview for just that 2 minutes. But it’s not 2008 anymore (and he’s not a woman).

        • And as ever, when asked a question about someone else, Trump immediately makes it about himself. Did you catch the bit at the end where he tried to claim “in the military” with involvement with the New York Vietnam memorial? Via Wonkette:

          But back to our original question. Is Trump really responsible for building the Vietnam Veterans Memorial in New York, like he says? Well, he was co-chairman of the New York Vietnam Memorial Commission. But:

          One official of the Vietnam commission, who has attended all the meetings, maintains Trump has been to only two or three out of 20 meetings. This was confirmed by another member of the commission. The first time he attended a meeting was to launch the commission, one source says, and the second was when he arrived with a reporter who was profiling him.

          To this charge, Trump responds: “That’s interesting. I’ll resign then. They’re very small thinkers. They’re stockbrokers that were in Vietnam and they don’t have it.”

          http://wonkette.com/591339/donald-trump-defeats-soviet-union-builds-vietnam-memorial-with-his-bare-hands

          And as we all know, Trump avoided the draft by claiming bone spurs in one of his feet, but can’t remember which one anymore.

          • Bruno

            He’s just so execrable in every way. These personality traits should be turning any mentally stable person off, so I can only assume there are at least 40% of people in this country who are currently mentally unstable.

          • I actually believe the current Trump supporters are split evenly between those who actually support him and those who are the equivalent of Yellow Dog Republicans — and Trump is their yellow, or rather Cheeto-colored, dog.

            I know there are a lot of really horrible people out there, but I refuse to accept it’s half or more of all American voters. It’s worth remembering that Dubya’s support eventually cratered to the mid-20s. I’d put Trump’s actual solid support somewhere in the same range, with the remainder behind him now only because he’s not the Democrat.

    • Bruno

      Never misses a chance to play the politics of racism and xenophobia.

    • bryan

      Disgusting how he attacks his wife. Trump must know that Khizr Khan is a thorn in his side that is not going away…

      • TampaDink

        Mrs. Khan did speak last night on The Last Word With Lawrence O’Donnell. Her husband didn’t seems at all unhappy about her participation….but donnie the commie con man suggested that she was not allowed to speak….because?

        • Because anti-Islamic bigotry, in which the bigots always assume that everybody who is Muslim must therefore hate and oppress women. Turns out the degree and spread of fundamentalism-motivated misogyny is roughly the same in Islam as it is in Christianity, Judaism, and Hinduism.

          • TampaDink

            😉
            I should have indicated that I knew what he was implying.

          • Ninja0980

            Women are to be seen and not heard in all of them.
            Also I have to laugh at the faux concern about Republicans claiming to care about women in the Middle East.
            People that think women should be forced against their will to give birth to a baby have no room to talk about anything.

    • Steven Leahy

      I don’t know if I can bring myself to watch it…I am so very chilled today.

  • Ninja0980

    This is nice and while we can breathe a little easier, we still have to make sure we do everything we can to GOTV.

  • Randy503

    And I hope that half of those 15 points came from Republicans.

    • Sam_Handwich

      that’s another interesting aspect of this poll. Among self-identified republicans, they break 36% for someone other than Trump/ not sure

      • Bruno

        Lots of gettable GOP votes out there. The Johnson and Not Sure aren’t too surprising, the only one that might be is the Hillary 14%.

      • Nick Stadler

        The one troubling thing about this poll is the enthusiasm factor. The Republicans they polled are far less enthusiastic than the Democrats, which makes me wonder if their data is biased and not, as I would hope, that Republicans overall are less enthusiastic.

  • Steven Leahy

    While the Democratic convention WAS very impressive, and it’s hard to imagine why anyone would want to vote Republican comparing the two presentations, I just don’t trust these polls one bit. This will likely be a close one.

    • Ninja0980

      At most, it will be 6-7% Clinton, as those were the margins Obama won by.

      • Steven Leahy

        I’d agree. Unless Trump does something really, truly outrageous (which is quite likely, BTW), I can’t see much deviation from that.

        • bryan

          Trump has not calmed down. Highly likely he will go even further. I’ve read comments from a lot of republicans being disgusted by his response to the Khans…

          • Bruno

            Nicole Wallace (very much a “moderate” Republican) said on MSNBC on Thursday that if there’s one thing about tRump that really disgusts a lot of them it’s the Muslim ban. We’re talking establishment types who tRump doesn’t seem to care about, but who seem to have been in his camp because they somehow feel that electing him will keep the party intact. Dems scored YUGE points in this area on Thursday night.

          • Skeptical_Inquirer

            Voting for someone who openly mocks the family of a soldier who died in service of the country goes against their imagined self that’s supposed to be non-racist supporter of the troops (I’m talking mainly about “moderate” and not people who wallow in the Trumpiness). Trump basically vaporized their cover and plausible deniability. If they publicly support and vote for him, on some level they KNOW that it will be much more difficult for not only others but themselves to maintain belief in this imagined self.

          • Bruno

            Right. They will come up with excuses like “well it’s not about his racism but economics or small government” or something. But there is just no way to excuse racism/xenophobia/sexism/homophobia/transphobia/etc. on THIS level. I am assuming that every single person who ticks that box for Donald tRump has some sort of anti-otherness motivation.

        • billbear1961

          He has called upon a foreign power to wage cyberattacks on his own country! Claims he was joking, but repeated the call in a tweet, altering it only to say anything hacked should be turned over to the FBI, as though as long as what our ENEMIES find is turned over to law enforcement, that makes it OKAY to call upon a foreign government to launch a cyberattack upon your OWN country!! Those attacks have INTENSIFIED since Trump called for them.

          As one professor has put it online, serious leaders concerned about national security do not, even in jest, call upon foreign powers to launch cyberattacks on their own country!!

          GOP people in national security work who were in past GOP administrations are APPALLED by his behaviour. He is undermining our support for NATO and giving the Russians a GREEN LIGHT to do as they please in Ukraine and the Baltic states (the 3 of which are our ALLIES in NATO).

          We know the Kremlin oligarchs have been propping up his business empire since the major banks refused to deal with him any further following his last major bankruptcy in 2004. Manafort, his campaign manager who has worked for a pro-Putin Ukrainian president (now in exile) and who ALSO has extensive financial ties with the Russian oligarchs, says Trump will NOT release his tax returns to prove his innocence (because he’s under audit, which did not stop NIXON from releasing HIS during a campaign). When they are asked if Russian oligarchs figure among Trump’s investors, neither Manafort nor Trump will ANSWER THE QUESTION!! (In an interview on CBS, where Manafort is questioned about Trump, Russia and Trump’s tax returns, you can SEE the man is LYING when he says there are no connections, just as he told repeated baldfaced lies during the plagiarism scandal. Trump becomes incoherent when questioned closely about the Russians.)

          The media report what Trump says without, for the most part, carefully explaining why our suspicions about Trump are FULLY JUSTIFIED by his pronouncements, by the events that follow his pronouncements, by what we DO know about his financial past, by his pro-Russian stances . . .

          THEN, what happens? Fuck ALL!! NOTHING!! It’s back to fucking business as usual!!

          He is allowed to get away with ANYTHING, no matter how OUTRAGEOUS!!

          What MORE can he DO to make it ANY clearer how grossly UNFIT he is to be POTUS??

          If HILLARY were labouring under the SAME sinister cloud, if SHE were tied to Russia in the SAME way, both the GOP Congress and the media would be calling for her HEAD ON A SILVER PLATTER!!

          Something is WRONG, Steven, VERY wrong!

          The fix is in, all right, the fix for that foul would-be DICTATOR to take this country down the road to FASCISM!!

          There are many in the media ready and eager to serve on Trump’s PRAVDA!!

          Putin’s club of oligarchs have their hooks in much MORE than their puppet, TRAITOR TRUMP!!

      • Bruno

        Probably, but we can always hope it’ll be a bigger landslide because we have enough sane people in this country to realize that tRump is a complete prick.

      • Sam_Handwich

        Sad!

  • Steven Leahy

    I was called and polled a couple of days ago 🙂

    • Reality.Bites

      Two Ls in both, eh?

      • Steven Leahy

        LOL um YES, two.

  • Skeptical_Inquirer

    Some Trump supporters call him God Emperor. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/trump-god-emperor-creepy-reddit_us_579a6970e4b08a8e8b5d38b5 I don’t really care if it’s tongue-in-cheek. It’s creepy.

    • Bruno

      Well they’re just saying the type of government they expect this country to change into. A despotic kingdom.

  • Oikos

    Thank FSM!!!!!

  • RainbowPhoenix

    Somewhere Trump is having a tantrum that Clinton had a much bigger convention bounce than he did.

    • PLAINTOM

      Not his fault remember he just showed up 🙂

      • And according to him and his fiery trousers, only on the last evening.

    • lymis

      Give him a day or so. You’ll know where he’s having his tantrum, because he’ll televise it.

  • Steven Leahy

    Creating jobs is a sacrifice???

    • stevenj

      He created jobs in China and Mexico for his clothing and furniture so yes he “sacrificed” some of the American labor force.

  • JHunter

    Bill Maher: Hillary Should Become the Supervillain Conservatives Say She Is. The Notorious H.R.C

    https://youtu.be/JyMqu-3u34A

    • lymis

      Cute. Not his best work, but cute.

  • Actually Trump could bring this country together. United against him or anyone like him. Trump represents every thing wrong with the GOP. He covers the gambit from one percenter to knuckle dragging red neck, with an unhealthy dose of bigotry thrown in. But Like the Phoenix they could rise from the ashes a new party, First however, either Ryan, Pence, or McConnell have to repudiate him and his message of divisiveness.

    • Skeptical_Inquirer

      I’m hoping that the GOP splits in two with the white identity nationalists and the Jeebus people go into one party while the Chamber of Commerce and military industrial complex end up in the other. The first party will have more votes but the second has all the money.

    • Joseph Miceli

      You are incorrect in one assumption and I see a lot of people doing the same. Trump is not the representative of everything wrong with the GOP, Trump is the AVATAR of the GOP. He embodies all their philosophies. His greed, his lack of empathy, his callousness, all are qualities extolled by Capitalist theory and by Republicans as qualities of Leadership. The Republican party finally has the leader who embodies those qualities ….even better than REAGAN!!!

  • Mihangel apYrs

    I have just read that she intends to make was on Syria to remove Assad (an ally of Russia).

    She is either warmongering or propagandising – either is worrying from the ostensibly potentially most powerful person in the world . . .

    • outerLoper

      Oh really, and where did you “read” that?

    • A “review of strategy” is not the same as declaring war. Your biases are showing. In fact, an intent to declare war isn’t even in the article you cited below.

      • Mihangel apYrs

        We in Europe have seen how US policy changes turn out . . .

        Any bias is based on a foundation reflected in cock-ups found in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya and so on. Not a single success

        • Nevertheless, you chose to misrepresent the contents of the article, drawing a particular foregone conclusion — and stating categorically that Clinton “intends to make (war) on Syria.” You have no evidence that is the case, save your own assumptions.

          “Free and fair elections” is yet another way of getting rid of tyrants, yet you would not even consider that possibility.

          • Mihangel apYrs

            My assumption is based on 50 years observing US foreign policy, the developments since 9/11, nd Clinton’s record.

            Perhaps it was a “leap” – every bit as moderate as the others I see on this site – or is Hillary untouchable?

          • No, fair criticism of Clinton is fine. She’s far from perfect. You’re the one who came in here and misrepresented what you’d read, stating something as fact that you only believe to be the case. That is being dishonest, which is not acceptable.

          • Mihangel apYrs

            Indeed
            Having watched her whooping at the execution of Bin Laden, you will forgive if I question whether she has a mature understanding of what taking a life means – this opinion being informed by knowledge, experience, and instinct honed since America’s halcyon days in Vietnam.

            Clinton’s warmongering instincts have been shewn in various ways – I extrapolate the statement into EITHER politiicking, or equally validly into an aggressive removal of Assad. I say this because he will not go voluntarily, Russia backs him, knowing too well that his removal will lead to anarchy with the concomitant threat to the oil pipeline – aggression being a first recourse of US foreign policy (as demonstrated by Libya and the Benghazi disaster).

            I drew a conclusion. As valid as any on this webbsite

          • Joseph Miceli

            “Having watched her whooping at the execution of Bin Laden…”
            Tough shit, Dumb Ass. Some people are better dead and I believe that celebrating the death of a mass murdering enemy of all civilized people means that she has a mature value FOR human life…but you just keep revealing all that onus you have for Hillary. Every word you print shows your preconceived bias against her.

  • Richard B

    The one positive thing I can say Trump accomplished as he sinks to the bottom of the polls, he singlehandedly obliterated the republican menace as we once knew it.

  • greenmanTN

    We aren’t voting for America’s Top Game Show Host which, at best, is all Trump is qualified for.

    • lymis

      Uh, no, he’s not even qualified for that.

      • greenmanTN

        When I start feeling low I rewatch the Celebrity Jeopardy with Wolf Blitzer. He might be the dumbest man on the planet, sans lobotomy.

      • greenmanTN

        I watched with Wink Matindale,I served with Wink Martindale, but you Sir, are no Wink Matindale! 😉

        • Nick Stadler

          He is, unfortunately, a Chuck Woolery.

        • DrRobY

          Found this at a BevMo. (It tastes as it looks.)

          • greenmanTN

            Trump WISHES he was on that label and his coloring would totally fit.

  • greenmanTN
  • ian

    Some good news. 15pt bounce is really great when the average for the past few election cycles, according to Nate Silver is only 4pts at best.

  • tasteless chap

    NOT a big enough spread!!!!

  • RepublicansRNotConservative

    Hope it stays that way

  • Traxley Launderette

    LET THE CHIPS START FALLING.

  • Ron

    Yes but what is the margin of error? Who was polled and how? If they get complacent now the oval will soon have lots of gold leaf and Louis XIV furnishings built in Beijing!

    • Joseph Miceli

      The margin of error is usually around 2 to four points. If it is above that then there was no reason to publish the poll. It would be a reason to start over and redo it.

      • Ron

        Uh yeah! I’ve had a statistics class or two! My remarks were meant rhetorically and I was attempting to tamper enthusiasm lest complacency and over confidence give us the 45th President of these United States Donald John Trump! I gotta go hurl!!!!

        • Joseph Miceli

          Ew. Yeah that made me feel queasy too!

      • JustSayin’

        Wrong joseph. Most political polls are 4.5% + – at 95% or 90% confidence. Means they are noise as all polls at this time are.

        • Joseph Miceli

          Nope.

    • JustSayin’

      http://www.rabaresearch.com/documents/RABA-Updated-National-Survey-July-2016-2.pdf

      That will get you the actual poll. The results according to the RABA home page (sroll down a bit) have been updated.

      MoE is +- 3.8% presumably at 95% confidence. The total polled votwrs were 956.

      The poll is just fucking noise.

  • Micheleekott4

    <<o. ★★✫★★✫★★✫★★✫★★✫★★✫★★✫★★✫★★✫★★✫★★✫★★✫★★✫★★✫★★✫★★✫★★✫★★::::::!fn159m:….,….

    • DrRobY

      I heard all about Amber Franklin. She is such a whore. She once did five guys in one day. FIVE GUYS. She then went to FIVE GUYS and got a hamburger. She loved it. Then it was back to the old In-n-Out to do it Animal Style. God, I envy Amber.

  • DutchBoy74
  • Joanrclark2

    <<o. ★★✫★★✫★★✫★★✫★★✫★★✫★★✫★★✫★★✫★★✫★★✫★★✫★★✫★★✫★★✫★★✫★★✫★★::::::!fn222m:….,….
    .

  • JustSayin’

    While fun news the fucking poll was of 956 voters. It means SQUAT! DO NOT GET CAUGHT UP IN THIS POLL SHIT! In October that will be different, right now it is all just noise.

  • chasmader

    Even the Koch brothers are thinking of endorsing her.

  • Queequeg

    But let’s not get overconfident.

  • DutchBoy74

    Here is the poll for those who want to look at it.
    Internet only poll.
    15-20% undecided, 28% independent.
    Only 38% felt the convention was a success.
    There is a lot of work to do – much that could have been done to bridge gaps during the convention IMO such as addressing the overlaying TPP issue – and not much time to do it.

    http://www.rabaresearch.com/documents/RABA-Updated-National-Survey-July-2016-2.pdf