IOWA: Clinton +3, Trump +5 In Final Poll

Via Bloomberg Politics:

Hillary Clinton is holding onto a slim lead over Bernie Sanders in Iowa as Democrats prepare for Monday’s caucuses, though an outpouring of young voters and those who say the system is rigged could enable Sanders to pull off an upset, according to a new poll.

Clinton leads Sanders, 45 percent to 42 percent, in a Bloomberg Politics/Des Moines Register Iowa Poll of likely Democratic caucus-goers released Saturday ahead of the nation’s first nominating contest. Former Maryland Governor Martin O’Malley has 3 percent in the survey conducted Jan. 26-29.

Only one in three likely Democratic voters in the survey are first-time caucus-goers, who break decidedly toward Sanders. That compares with 60 percent in the final pre-caucus survey of 2008, when a wave of young voters and new participants helped Barack Obama overpower Clinton in Iowa.

In addition, the survey finds Clinton’s support is deeper and sturdier than Sanders’ across many areas, with 53 percent saying they’d be very enthusiastic with her as the party’s nominee. Most tellingly, 83 percent of her voters say their minds are made up to support Clinton.

From The Hill:

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump just got some good news two days before his campaign’s biggest day. Trump leads the GOP field with 28 percent support in Iowa, according a Des Moines Register/Bloomberg poll released Saturday evening. The results come just days before the Iowa caucuses on Monday, where Trump’s ability to turn out voters will be put to the test. Rival Ted Cruz comes in second with 23 percent.

Cruz led the previous version of the poll released Jan. 13 with 25 percent, with Trump behind him at 22 percent. Marco Rubio came in third place with 15 percent, and Ben Carson in fourth with 10 percent. Rand Paul follows with 5 percent. Chris Christie has 3 percent, and Jeb Bush, Carly Fiorina, Mike Huckabee, John Kasich and Rick Santorum have 2 percent each.

  • Sean Williams

    Ted Ruz?

    • Noticed that too…oops!

    • Rolf

      Donald Rump, Ben Arson…

      • Jeffrey

        And somehow all three sound more appropriate that way…

        • Rolf

          I can’t imagine being a republican and having to chose one of these guys. Bombast, Slimeball, (can’t think of an appropriate name for Rubio) or Dopey.
          I think I’d just sit this one out.

          • PLAINTOM

            Baby Con

          • Queequeg

            Rubio? Panderer.

    • Bob Conti

      They misspelled it. It should be Ted Ruse.

  • Macbill

    Everybody loves a naked First Lady.

    • Bluto

      Imagine the official portrait of a scantily clad 1st lady Trump hanging alongside Martha, Dolly, Eleanor, Jackie & Michelle. Making murica great again with bought & paid for tatas.

    • Todd20036

      Well, I certainly didn’t mind the shirtless picture of Obama.

      • Rolf

        For some reason that made me imagine a shirtless picture of Trump. With a merkin trying to escape his pants.
        Now I can’t eat my breakfast.

        • Joe knows who I am.

          Thanks for that. I’ll be fasting today for sure.

  • Gay Fordham Prep Grad

    Hopefully this is the last we hear of Jebrah, I can’t stand that man and his loathsome family.

    • Rolf

      Time to compost those toxic, prickly shrubs.

    • Todd20036

      Don’t count on it. His backers will definitely pay through Stupor Tuesday, and I’d say that they still might keep him because there will magically be a brokered convention where he could squeak in

      Even if that happened, no way would Trump NOT go independent, and split the goob vote.

      • That_Looks_Delicious

        He does have a huge war-chest and can afford to keep going on and on even if he doesn’t win a single primary. That is the irony of the Citizens United decision. There is no longer any incentive to drop out of the race as long as you can keep playing with other peoples’ money, so the Republicans kind of brought this mess on themselves.

        • That_Looks_Delicious

          Bush leads in SuperPAC money by a lot…

  • shellback

    Stabby’s pretty low considering he was chosen by the jeezis. Maybe he misread Poverbs.

    • PLAINTOM

      Ben’s problem is that white Jesus didn’t choose him to run.

    • Robincho

      You’re pobably right…

  • Prion

    • BearEyes

      sigh.

    • vorpal

      As a Canadian, this is something I really, really don’t get… why do US politics have to comprise a soap opera of ridiculous drama that drags on and on for well over a year before the actual election?

      • Prion

        Money. Greed. Power. Control.

        Money and a complete lack of sane regulation on campaign spending. Citizen’s United and other decisions made things worse but it was already terrible long before that.

        The US Oligarchy has the all the money it needs win the best* government their money can buy. (*best as defined by the Oligarchy)

        That money buys tons of ads so the mass media plays the game and laughs all the way to the bank. The mass media rarely drills down into actual issues and policies which would help inform the electorate. Instead, they only report on the rat race forcing more ad spending by candidates. Ca-ching!

        And all the while we think we live in a democracy! You can’t make this shit up.

        https://scholar.princeton.edu/sites/default/files/mgilens/files/gilens_and_page_2014_-testing_theories_of_american_politics.doc.pdf

        • Steven Leahy

          All of what you said, and the campaign season. Why is it so fucking LONG? And the primary system is totally jacked. Should all be on one day, uniformly, so one state’s results don’t influence others’ outcomes.

      • Steven Leahy

        We live here and most of us don’t get it, either,

      • Oscarlating Wildely

        Because it’s America.
        And we’re fucked up.

      • DutchBoy74

        Money and Control.
        Can’t spend all that much money in a short race. Can’t develop a control message unless it is beaten in over time.

        There is a far too much industry in campaign politics.

        I wish we all had a standardized voting method and a standardized primary date. That way no single state can be “the leader” or be abused with 6 months worth of political pandering to lead up to a pre-job selection a year before a position that only lasts 4 years.

    • Robincho

      zzzzz… wha? hmnpff… zzzzzz…

  • Prion

    ..,

  • Prion

    .,.

  • Prion

    .,,

    • Todd20036

      So you say, frankly, I think Hillary is ready for the White House.

      • Gene

        more importantly Todd, Prion, a majority of Americans are ready for her in the White House

        A majority of Americans are NOT ready for Sanders in the White House.

        besides…no one is truly naive or idealistic enough to believe that honor or integrity are positive traits for any politician. period, so we shall all stop acting like hillarys strengths are weaknesses.

        I think he squeeks out a win in Iowa. wins in NH, and then, the demographics of states that are not lilly white and where the democrats are not as far to the left (the south, california, the south west, most of the mid atlantic) kick in and she wins. I just hope he does not push her to far to the left as to make her unelectable in the general election.

        • Gene

          pardon,,,meant to write should…not shall…if only I had such authority. sigh. In a perfect world 🙂

        • LonelyLiberal

          Heh, I’ll take the gentlemen’s bet that Hillary squeaks out a win in IA (Clinton +2), loses NH (Sanders +15), and then the rest of the states go pretty much as you said.

        • Silver_Witch

          Bernie can never push Hillary to the left. No one really believes she is anything other than moderate at best I promise!

          • Gene

            alas, most of the working class democrats in the VA panhandle, NC panhandle (those two will be in play) and in KY, WVA and GA (not in play, so…meh) strongly disagree with you, and already think “she wants to take my money and give it to some welfare queen”. ANY move to the left only reconfirms these already skeptical voters, and, they are watching (and not even considering Sanders).
            Trust me….they dont think she is a moderate.

          • Silver_Witch

            Ohh yes the Dems do think she is a moderate! Kabuki theater is all that gnashing of teeth is.

      • coram nobis

        She’s ready for her closeup, Mr. DeMille.

    • j.martindale
      • JCF

        “the George McGovern of 2016”

        O_o

        I thought you supported Bernie, Prion? This claim doesn’t sound like it.

        [Full-disclosure: my 10 yo bad self WORKED for McGovern in ’72!]

  • Did everybody see Cruz’s threatening mailer? Hi, I’m Ted Cruz and I’m here to scold you and warn you that we have your voting record and you get an F for being too Fat and Lazy to get to the polls so let’s see some hustle LOSERS!

    I’m Ted Cruz and I approve this insulting message.

    • Herald

      MY wife just saw that, I hope everyone in Iowa is a ticked off as she is!

      • PLAINTOM

        That was not only sleezy politics, it was amateurish sleezy politics and highlights Cruz’s character flaws. It will hurt him when a group of neighbors get together in small groups.

      • Queequeg

        It’s no mystery why everyone who knows him hates him.

    • Joe in PA

      for those that might not have seen it:

      http://www.addictinginfo.org/2016/01/30/cruzs-desperate-last-minute-attempt-to-win-iowa-is-so-vile-state-officials-just-nailed-him-for-it/

      We’ll see how far this goes…probably not far. Sigh.

      • Steven Leahy

        LOL that is tacky as hell. At first I thought it was fake or satire. Pretty bad when you can out-unclass the Donald.

      • Silver_Witch

        Woo. Just wow. He is really an ass

  • Michael Rush

    I don’t like political cartoons but this one is really mean for the right reasons .

    https://thepardu.files.wordpress.com/2014/12/f5d46-cartoon-fox-toilet-heads2b2.jpg

  • Todd20036

    Individual polls are meaningless, compared to Nate Silver’s analyses.

  • hiker_sf

    I’m tired of the “Sanders will not accomplish anything or can’t beat the Republicans”/”Clinton was homophobic or was against something in 1992” comments. That is all.

    • Beagle

      Agreed. It’s enough to make vote for O’Malley.

  • Steven Leahy

    Well, the system is rigged, that’s for sure. In favor of whomever has enough $ to buy elections.

  • Jmdintpa

    i think if hillary starts winning the people at the fbi and other govt. agencies will start to panic and double down on the email “scandal”. im sure they will find some right wing person in charge of some grand jury somewhere to try and indict her….. warranted or not. the email scandal is there only hope of trying anything… something… to stop her. i think there are lots of white /hetero/ chrisitan males who are very afraid of her.

    • That_Looks_Delicious

      I think they’ve taken it to a point where it’s possible that she’s completely innoculated. After almost 25 years of so-called Clinton “scandals,” a lot of voters will not believe the accusers even if a real, genuine scandal did emerge. Ken Starr, Tres Gawdy, Darrell Issa, Newt Gingrich, FuxSnooz and all the rest of the anti-Clinton crowd may have become the boys who cried wolf too many times.

    • Silver_Witch

      I don’t care for Clinton at all, still this email broohaha is just nonsense. They have dribbled it out a wee bit at a time and frankly people are sick of it!!! I thinks you are probably wrong and she will be fine. No indictment or hearings (they nearly hung themselves with the last congressional hearing)

      Frankly I think it is all the scardy cats have left and no on else cares.

  • Steven Leahy

    We have a serious snowfall/storm rolling in late Monday through Tuesday. Most of it will happen very late to after midnight though, and hopefully will not deter voters.

  • Steverino

    Caucus suckers.

    • That_Looks_Delicious

      I see what you did there.

  • Queequeg

    Fox doesn’t even know Ted’s last name (look at thr graphic). Shows how important he is.

  • Sam_Handwich

    from the DMR poll…. note the stark difference between parties, in terms of their favorable ratings

    Iowa GOP Fav/Unfav:
    Carson: 72/22
    Rubio: 70/21
    Cruz: 65/28
    Trump: 50/47
    Jeb!: 41/53
    Christie: 40/44
    Paul: 40/41

    Iowa Dem Fave/Unfav

    Obama: 90/9
    Clinton: 81/17
    Sanders: 82/12
    Bill Clinton: 86/11

    • Silver_Witch

      I didn’t know President Bill CLI ton was running this year. Isn’t there a constitutional amendment that limits the number of terms a President may run?

      • Sam_Handwich

        it illustrates a point: party unity, both past and present

        • Silver_Witch

          Sorry Sam – I assumed this was in the poll you were quoting – did not realize it was from a pass poll.

  • Max_1

  • Max_1

    ///

  • Amanda B. Rekendwith

    Did they really identify him as Ted Ruz??
    lol

    • coram nobis

      If they can’t get your name right, you might as well concede and get your own K Street consultancy. By the way, who’s this Jed Bush I used to hear about?

    • DutchBoy74

      Ruz = Ruse ?

      • Amanda B. Rekendwith

        That what I thought.
        How very Freudian.

  • Will Parkinson

    Ted Ruz? LOL.